To The Moon

Last week, $Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ and $BILIBILI-W(09626)$ released its financial report. Advertising revenue as one of the few highlights has aroused heated discussion and even some visions for the future.

However, investment is to vote with money, and it is useless to use a mouth. The reality is reflected in the stock price of the small broken station.

I have been saying before that don't pay too much attention to/analyze the quarterly performance of a stock. The first element of investment is the business model, not whether the enterprise has made more money in a few months.

So, is the business model of the small broken station good?

Let's start with the conclusion: not good, especially on the premise that no effective profit model has been found so far, the user increment is not ideal.

The revenue of the small broken station is mainly four major blocks: value-added services, advertising, mobile games, and IP derivatives.

The value-added service that occupies the largest revenue sounds superior, but it is actually a member. This is not much different from other bleak performance, which is not much different from long video websites such as iQIYI and Tencent Video that are not shown by buying copyright and not recharging. Considering the user experience and its own style, Bilibili has not added patch advertisements, and the revenue is even less.

Countless platforms have verified the unfeasible business, which is the largest revenue point of Bilibili at present, which is a very serious problem.

Can the increase in advertising revenue solve this problem? Let's see how it increases and where it increases.

The current advertising model is obviously impossible. It is nothing more than to make the financial report look "not so bad", but the business structure is still the same as before, and there is still no hope of profit. How can investors value you?

In my opinion, the current business model of Bilibili is a road of no return, which is nothing more than the difference of how long it can last.

It's in the wrong direction. No matter how hard you try, it's futile.

The biggest competitiveness of Bilibili is actually the high-quality up owner, unique user community atmosphere and bullet screen culture, rather than one or two more copyrighted dramas.

Since it is a UGC-based platform, it should allow the content-producing people and their iron fans to get more income. Now the main profit of the up masters is based on platform subsidies (but Bilibili does not make money by itself), Pinduoduo's undifferentiated local tycoons (what if they don't invest?), and the amount .

In addition to the head, UP masters generally lack effective commercial profits, which is their core pain point. None of the four major businesses on Bilibili are solving this problem, which is really a little strange.

B station and up are originally a mutually beneficial and symbiotic relationship. It is said that one side strives to expand business, the other side strives to do a good job in content, and each has a clear division of labor. But now the commercial advertisement of Bilibili is Bilibili, the uploader takes the order by himself, and each has what the other party needs, but it doesn't care about the other party's life or death.

Why don't you let a good up owner take the business order negotiated by the platform, because the business order is more profitable, attract more people to be the up owner, and then attract more users, and finally attract more advertisers to invest in the positive circle?

The problem I can think of, I believe the commercial operation team of Bilibili must have thought of it, but it has not been implemented yet. What's wrong? I can only find clues from future financial reports.

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