To The Moon

After nearly a month's seesaw, the crude oil market finally made progress.

American oil successfully stood above the highest position of 83.50 this year. My Previous judgments agree that bulls will make small progress. However, although the oil price is gaining momentum, the key resistance level on the 93/94 line cannot be ignored. Unless other risky assets can go further, pay attention to the possible bull trap caused by the surge and fall.

Oil prices have been continuously boosted by good news in previous months, mainly due to OPEC + 's production reduction operation, which is equivalent to artificial restrictions from the supply side. Even if the transmission effect of this good news is diminishing, because there is no other negative news in the market itself, oil prices can still keep rebounding at present.

However, it can be clearly seen that the resistance in the year near 83.5 has certain pressure, but the more critical position in the medium and long term is mainly below 94. This is the key position where crude oil bulls fought back before and became resistance and back pressure after breaking the position.

If the trend of the US stock index is superimposed, it is very likely that the risky assets will make another upward attempt, and if they cannot attract new buying intervention, they will face the risk of killing more.

From the perspective of inflation, it is quite difficult to return to the era of high inflation, and the Federal Reserve has also given the latest statement that "the rate hike is coming to an end, but the interest rate cut is still far away". This means that on the demand side, oil prices may not have the so-called recovery logic.

This will naturally limit the room for crude oil to rise. Even if there is an unexpected “black swan”, whether it is crude oil itself or other financial markets, turmoil and panic will affect the performance of oil prices. Based on the above judgment, we are more inclined to try to short it at a relatively high level, or at least close the long position at the above level and turn to wait and see.

In addition, the copper price is slightly sluggish in the recent trend. Although it has rebounded in the last two weeks, it still fluctuates within the channel. As long as the oil price remains at the current level, copper has the opportunity to make up for it. However, similar to crude oil and US stock index, it is not optimistic that copper price can return to the previous high or make greater breakthrough and progress.

Finally, we should pay attention to the US Dollar Index's performance.

Although there was a downward movement of the US dollar last week, the continuous rebound of the last two transactions helped the market get out of the long shadow line. Ideally, another correction would be for the dollar. If the dollar refuses to fall and stands at 104.7, the good days of being wary of risky assets will end early.

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