S&P 500 Index rises in Nov & Dec? Read & decide.
Did you know that US stocks have logged a 3rd month of straight losses, for the first time since the onset of covid-19, back in March 2020?
It remained true until the last trading day of October.
On Tues, 31 Oct 2023, when market called it a day, it ended higher as investors weighed fresh consumer confidence data (see below).
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October 2023, declined moderately to 102.6.
It has beaten analysts’ forecast of 100, though.
Compared against an upward revised September’s index of 104.3, October data is “down” marginally (-1.7).
More important, it is the 3rd consecutive month that the index has tapered down.
Indicating & implying that consumer fears of an impending recession have increased.
This is consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction anticipated for the first half of 2024.
By the time market closed: (see above)
DJIA: +0.38% (+123.91 TO 33,052.87).
S&P 500: +0.65% (+26.98 to 4,193.80).
Nasdaq: +0.48% (+61.75 to 12,85
Overall, the S&P 500 composite index has fallen -2.2% in October.
The index has officially entered correction territory on Fri, 27 Oct 2023, marking a -10% downturn from its most recent high reached on 31 Jul 2023.
Carson Group’s Chief Market strategist Ryan Detrick has made an interesting observation of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ composite index.
He noted that S&P 500 index’s average pullback in a given year is approximately 14.3%.
Granted that this is “true”, the S&P 500, which currently sits above 4,150, would need to fall to 3,950 to meet this historical average. (see below)
Detrick's work shows that in the 5 previous instances since 1952:
The S&P 500 has dropped in each of August, September, & October.
The index returns an average of 4.5% over the year's final two months.
Only December 1957 was an abnormally & produced a negative return.
In an email reply, Detrick has mentioned that: (see above)
US stocks have been lower for the past 3 months.
Usually, the final 2 months of the year tend to be quite bullish.
With stocks are still up about 8% for 2023, even though it might feel worse now, one should put things in context.
Forgetting not, since 1952, the S&P 500's average annual total return has been just under 11%.
Do you think you are comforted by Carson Group’s Chief Market strategist Ryan Detrick’s shared information?
Do you think you will be looking forward to US market in November & December?
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bond market is pricing in a great depression on the horizon
Chances are that the same "traders" who were selling at recent lows are now scrambling to catch the top of this counter-trend spike. Good. They can hold the bag again.
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