Crude Oil Dip Below 200DMA in 4 Months, What's The Next Place to Go?

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2312(CLmain)$ Crude Oil closed below its 200D moving average this week for the first time since July 2023.

It is said that seasonality, November always a bad month for oil price.

Image

Are there any more specific reasons for the decline? (Supply or Demand?)

Is the demand worry heave than geopolitics worry？

What price will be the next place to go？ $72?

Before we delve into the answers, below are some timelines showing how oil price changes relate to recessions. Feel free to add your comment on the recessions:

1947–1948 – Oil prices rise sharply ($20 to $30). Recession 1949.
Apr 1953–Jun 1953 – Oil prices rise modestly, though rapidly. Recession 2H53 – 1H54.
Jan 1957–Apr 1957 – Oil prices rise modestly, though rapidly. Recession 2H57–1H58.
Jan 1969–Apr 1969 – Oil prices rise modestly, though rapidly. Recession 1970.
Bretton Woods Ended (Aug 1971) Jul 1973–Jan 1974 – Oil price rise sharply ($20 to $60). Recession 1974.
Jan 1979–Apr 1980 – Oil prices rise sharply ($60 to $135). Recession 1H80 & again 2H81–1H82.、
Feb 2016 – Sep 2018 – Oil prices rose steadily ($40 to $80). (Pandemic) Recession Spring 2020.
Apr 2020 – Mar 2022 – Oil prices rose steadily then sharply ($20 to $110). Recession ???

For the price dip reason:

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2312(CLmain)$ prices took an 11% nosedive in October due to geopolitical risks, low US demand, and mixed Chinese data.

For the technical analysis:

Do you have many more thoughts to add?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

To The Moon