Which EV Stocks Can Be The Next Tesla?
πππ$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
is the King of EV stocks having the first mover advantage when EV cars were just a figment of imagination. If you had bought 10,000 shares of Tesla at its IPO at USD 17 per share in 2010 and held it till now, you would have made millions.
Tesla's journey to what it is now has not been smooth and its success can be attributed to Elon Musk.
The EV industry is still at an early stage of adoption and the market is huge. Which EV stocks can be the next Tesla?
has emerged one of the most promising EV stocks from China. Li Auto's share price is up a massive 96% year todate. This rally has been backed by Li Auto's stellar performance this year. For Q3 2023, deliveries surged by 296.3% on a year over year basis. This growth has been due to the launch of new models coupled with a strong retail expansion within China. Li Auto expects 4th quarter deliveries to be in the range of 125,000 to 128,000 units, implying a year over year growth of 170% to 176%. The guidance is higher than Wall Street's estimate of 112,264 vehicles.
Li Auto generated record revenue of RMB 34.68 billion (USD 4.75 billion) in 3Q 2023. This represents a year over year increase of 271% and a 21% increase from Q2 2023. Li Auto also reported gross margin of 22% in 3Q 2023.higher than 12.7% in the same period last year and 21% in the 2nd quarter.
I like that Li Auto has a laser focus on China with a cash buffer of RMB 88.52 billion as of September 30 2023. I also like that Li Auto has been profitable for 4 consecutive quarters. With Li MEGA due for launch in December, Li Auto will continue to grow exponentially in the future.
is another EV stock that can possibly be the next Tesla. XPeng's share price is up 10% in the past 5 days and a whopping 168% in the past year.
For Q3 2023, XPeng reported deliveries of 40,008 units which is higher by 72% quarter on quarter basis. XPeng commenced delivery of its G9 in Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands and Denmark. The strong push for expansion is likely to yield results in the coming years.
XPeng achieved RMB 1 billion of positive free cash flow in 3Q 23 and is on track for record deliveries in 4th quarter, targeting over 60,000 units.
XPeng's new model X9 went on presale at the Guangzhou auto show in November 17 23 and deliveries will begin in January 2024. XPeng expects the X9 to be the number 1 seller in the large pure electric MPV market.
In July XPeng signed an agreement with Volkswagen to jointly develop 2 mid sized EVs for China. Volkswagen will invest USD 700 million into XPeng.
In August XPeng signed an agreement with DiDi in all stock deal worth USD 744 million in exchange for DiDi's EV and Autonomous assets. XPeng will launch a new Smart EV brand in partnership with DiDi called Project MONA where the new brand will aim to sell EVs in the 150,000 Yuan range or USD 20,000. XPeng will launch MONA in the 3rd quarter of 2024.
has been called the Tesla of China. It is focused on the premium EV market of China. It has been a tough year for Nio as its share price is down 23% year todate.
After closing in the red in 2021 and 2022, Nio looks on track for its 3rd consecutive year of losses. Nio will report its Q3 23 earnings on December 5 2023.
However in June 2023, Nio signed an agreement with CYVN Holdings which will invest a total of USD 1.1 billion in Nio. On completion of the investment, CYVN Holdings, the investment arm of Abu Dhabi Government, will own 7% of Nio's shares.
In June 2023, Nio's energy business unit, Nio Power signed an agreement with CNOOC Refinery to jointly build charging and battery swap infrastructure. CNOOC is the 3rd largest Oil Producer of China.
In Q3 2023, Nio delivered 55,432 vehicles, an increase of 75.4% year over year. Nio launched its first smartphone on September 21 2023, demonstrating the device 's experience of seamlessly connecting to Nio' s vehicles.
Nio has built a network of battery swapping stations in China. Nio also provides battery on subscription which allow Nio to offer lower car prices to buyers while generating recurring revenues through subscription fees.
At the last closing price of USD 7.40, Nio is undervalued for what it can offer.
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$
Share price is up 2.8% on Friday but is down 44% in the past year. On November 8 2023, Rivian reported a revenue of USD 1.34 billion versus USD 1.31 billion estimated for its Q3 23. Rivian has an adjusted loss per share of USD 1.19 versus USD 1.32 expected. This revenue represents a 19.6% jump from Q2's USD 1.12 billion and 150% more than USD 536 million reported last year.
Rivian's Q3 23 deliveries beat expectations and jumped 23% from the previous quarter. Rivian produced 16,304 vehicles and delivered 15,564 vehicles in Q3 23. Rivian has raised its full production guidance to 54,000 vehicles for 2023, up from 52,000 previously.
Rivian has currently 3 models that include RS1, RT1 and the electric delivery van. R2 vehicles are due for production in 2026.
Recently Rivian has announced Fund raising of USD 1.5 billion through convertible notes. Amazon has invested USD 1.345 billion in 2019 which gave Amazon exclusive rights to the battery electric delivery van that Rivian is building. Amazon has agreed to purchase up to 100,000 vans over the next 4 years. The first of Rivian's vans were delivered to Amazon last year. In November Amazon said that it has 1000 delivery vehicles in service in the US delivering over 5 million packages to customers.
Rivian has an operational base in Europe and is looking to expand in this market with the smaller and more affordable R2 vehicles.
All 4 EV stocks - Li Auto, XPeng, Nio and Rivian can be the next Tesla in the years to come. EV car sales are expected to reach 65% of total car sales in 2030. To achieve this figure, EV sales is expected to grow by an average of 25% per year from 2023 to 2030. In actual fact, EV sales increased by 55% in 2022 compared to 2021. In 2023, EV sales has already grown 34% compared to 2022.
The Global market is huge and the EV company that will be become the next Tesla needs to have a vision, followed by flawless execution and lots of cash buffer to be the next Tesla. Tesla is after all the largest EV manufacturer in the world with a market cap of 737 billion dollars. The challenge is on and the rewards of choosing the right EV stock to be the next Tesla will be huge!
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Elon Musk's leadership has been crucial to Tesla's success. Do you think the CEOs of NIO, XPENG, LI AUTO, and RIVN have what it takes to lead their companies to similar heights? What sets them apart?
Have you considered diversifying your portfolio by investing in multiple EV companies, or do you prefer to bet big on one? What's your strategy?
Do you think there's room for new players to emerge as major competitors, or will the current giants dominate?
With so many EV stocks to choose from, it's hard to pick the one that will replicate Tesla's success.
Investing in the next Tesla can be a game-changer, but it's a tough call.
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