From Low To High In Near Record Time π
About 130% gain trading and swinging SPY calls from pullbacks. On Thursday, Wall Street rebounded into positive territory, following a brief dip experienced on Wednesday.
β οΈ Trading tips: looking at calls above 473.5 and dip buying around 470-471 after the PCE data releases at 8:30 am. Can we see the push back to 475 before breaking the all time high with Papa Santa next week?
All eyes on PCE data next
As expected, dip buyers caused the stock market to rally again in the early trade and is back to the low band of the resistance zone posted for the Tiger community on how to trade the price action.
The chart shows a sell-off yesterday. The sell-off brought the stock market below the low band of the resistance zone. One obvious indicator- the RSI was very overbought, and thus the stock market was vulnerable to a sell-off when a surprise occurred in market mechanics.
Several market mechanics have been driving the stock market up. One of those market mechanics is 0DTE options. Everyday traders have been aggressively buying 0DTE calls. Everyday when the market started going up, market makers were forced to buy stocks to hedge the calls they had sold.
During a rally, market makers were more than happy to sell puts to investors as everyday puts expired worthless, resulting in market makers making huge profits. As the rally continued, market makers stopped hedging the puts they were selling. After all, there was no point in hedging because the stock market went up everyday.
The weak Treasury auction caused the stock market to turn down. Market makers were caught flat footed as they had sold lots of puts without hedging. As the market went down, market makers were forced to sell stocks to hedge the puts they had sold.
The result of the surprise encountered by market makers was they were forced to sell stocks to hedge, causing the biggest sell-off since September.
First, Dow Jones broke all time high, then Nasdaq and Russell followed suit. S&P was so close with just 20 points to go when sentiment went sour on Wednesday.
Things are looking better on Thursday, with futures pointing to a rebound on Wall Street, while traders will decide whether fresh economic data can build on the favorable housing market and consumer confidence numbers that bolstered bets for a Fed-engineered soft landing.
Santa Claus rally is in full swing!
The sell-off came just before the traditional Santa Claus rally. Can the PCE data send the rocket ship to join the rest in breaking ATH soon? Traditionally, the Santa Claus rally starts tomorrow.
Are you prepared for it? π
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