To The Moon

AMD clears All Time High - Caution or to the moon?

AMD has done it at long last! They have managed to clear that elusive all time high set at the 2021 highs which Nvidia already cleared a few months back. Does it mean to the moon then?

Well.... I was tracking a diagonal and a wave 3 breakout move prior to this (kindly refer to my earlier article). However this move takes the diagonal off the table but still puts two possible counts on the board. 

1. An expanded flat formation (Red count)

2. A wave 3 breakout to higher highs (Green count)

So which one is it? Technically, an expanded flat formation is in play and to negate this, the 123.6% level needs to be cleared which means the 190 levels must be overcome and that price level defended to give the wave 3 breakout a chance. To play it safer, I like to give a bit more breathing space to avoid fake breakouts so I like to put my demarcation levels at 127.2%. Beyond this and the likely hood of a fake breakout is lower based on historical trends. So that means a level of 194 must be cleared. And wave 3s are characterised by sharp vertical moves on heavy volume so that with the price action mentioned will signal a break out buy. 

At the moment, euphoria is in the air (which makes me more wary!) as well as overexuberant bulls and to the unsuspecting merry bulls, some might not have recognised the possible expanded flat pattern in play. That pattern has AMD in the final thrust of the B wave before that sharp C wave down to end the expanding flat formation. Note also the divergences (denoted with the arrows) on the RSI as well as the detrended oscillator as price peaks higher. The trough of that C wave is the time to go long. 

So until the market decides which pattern is in play, I am leaning towards the expanding flat based on macro, sentiments as well as divergences seen in the market as well as exhausted five wave moves across the board in multiple charts. The moon will have to wait until the all clear for lift off is given. Lets see what mission control in terms of results announcement will have to say. 

Disclaimer: Please kindly do your own due diligence as this is a sharing article and in no means financial advise. I am just sharing my opinions and thoughts.

Thanks for reading my commentary. Hope it helps!

Stay safe! 😊

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