Can the Recent High in Gold Prices Continue to Rise?
$Gold - main 2406(GCmain)$ will hit $2,500 by the 4th quarter says JP Morgan
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$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ rose 1.87% on Monday trading, and $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ rose 3.04%.
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The relationship between Iran and Israel in the Middle East has spurred demand for safe-haven assets, Can the recent high in $Gold - main 2406(GCmain)$ prices continue to rise?
Let’s look at 3 charts below first:
1.US CPI, US M2, SPX&GOLD overlay, 75-year chart
Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles
The 1st chart says:
Fighting inflation has never been a priority Gold always catches up with M2 and CPI
Stock market is just a function of the currency supply
It all started when Nixon disconnected USD from gold
ll now synced, and 3 has parabolic bases => parabolic now..?
2.Gold prices vs. U.S. Money Supply
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3.Gold rally explained in one chart. Spoiler, more to come. Chart
@RealAlpineMacro
What does the charts implying?
Fundamentally, The resilience of the U.S. economy is strong, and the Federal Reserve does not have the conditions to cut interest rates in the short term. The probability of international gold prices hitting new highs in the first half of the year is low.
In the short term, the rise in the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ and real yields on U.S. Treasuries and other market indicators will exert some pressure on international gold prices.
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Over he past 15 years gold had two major breakouts in 2009 and 2019. Every breakout lead to at 15 - 20% rally and then 2-3 month correction. This time around I expect similar price action...
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Traditional safe-havens break their usual dance as investors hedge against global uncertainties.
BTC faces headwinds: prices fall, ETF interest wanes, & outflows persist.
Yet, upcoming Hong Kong BTC ETFs could shake things up.
Key takeaway?
In war-fogged markets, steer clear of leverage, and watch for more spot buys. Patience could pay—expect brighter days ahead.
Save capital, stay sharp.