AI and Semiconductor 💻📱☁️ Trend
AI stock performance varied in Q1 earnings. Several AI-related stocks experienced significant declines in their share prices after releasing earnings reports. Some notable examples include ASML, TSM, and SMCI.
Some investors interpret these declines as a potential indication that the AI sector may have reached its peak. However, others maintain a long-term bullish outlook on AI, viewing the recent downturn as a temporary pullback.
NVIDIA
Nvidia makes graphics-processing units, or GPUs, which play a crucial role in AI. The company's shares have tripled over the past year, giving it a market capitalization of $2.27 trillion. Nvidia shares took a hit earlier this week when the billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said that he'd slashed his big bet in the chipmaker earlier this year. He said the swift AI boom could be overdone in the short run.
By looking at NVIDIA chart, it is still among the most bullish AI stocks. Last Friday, the share price breaks beyond the Orange coloured downtrend line. This week, the share price slightly consolidated but stood well above its EMA10 trend line. All these indicate that the stock price is still very bullish and I strongly believe $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
AMD
Chip giant AMD reported its first quarter earnings early May, beating analysts' expectations on the top and bottom lines, but lighter-than-anticipated guidance for the current quarter sent the stock lower.
CEO Lisa Su told analysts that the company now sees full-year data center GPU revenue exceeding 4 billion USD, ahead of its prior forecast of 3.5 billion USD, but significantly below some analysts' estimates.
As compared to NVIDIA, AMD has a much worse chart. We can observe a clear downtrend line in Orange. An interesting thing that we could notice here is, the share price is currently very very close to EMA200 trend line, in which AMD rebounds strongly after touching it, for at least 2 times as highlighted in the Figure above. I believe history will just keep repeat and we should expect a rebound in $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$
PLTR
Early this week, Palantir reported stronger-than-expected revenue and EPS in line with analyst estimates, but issued weaker-than-expected full-year guidance.
As a result, Palantir fell 15%, their worst day since May 2022. Market worried about slowing momentum at Palantir, as revenue growth from U.S. government contracts has shown signs of cooling.
Technically, PLTR is another stock that reaches its triple bottom support, as highlighted in Orange circles. Each time the share price hits this level at around 20.30 USD, PLTR will rebound for over 20%. I believe history will usually repeat and I expect $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
INTEL
The U.S. government has withdrawn select export licenses from Intel and Qualcomm, effectively preventing them from supplying processors to Huawei. As a result of the Huawei export license revocation, Intel now expects its second quarter revenue to fall below the midpoint of its guidance.
I remain my bearish view on $Intel(INTC)$
SOXL
SOXL, consistently among the most actively-traded ETFs, seeks three times daily exposure from an index of 30 of the largest U.S.-listed semiconductor companies, including manufacturers and providers of equipment and services focused on the industry. The fund's index uses market cap-weighting, with the top five securities capped at 8% and the remaining securities at 4%.
This index trend is not bad actually and worth to be saved in your watchlist. Since the technical rebound in mid April nearby EMA200, the share price begins to turn bullish by forming a higher low. And now, as we zoom in to the Orange highlighted circle, it shows that EMA10 stays extremely close to EMA25 and EMA50 right now. I expect a double golden crosses will happen pretty soon, and send the index $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$
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ASML Holding NV (ASML)
Business and Industry: ASML Holding NV is a Dutch company that specializes in the development and production of advanced lithography systems for the semiconductor industry. Their systems are used by chip manufacturers to produce integrated circuits and microchips. The semiconductor industry is expected to continue growing in the future, driven by increasing demand for electronic devices and advancements in technologies such as AI and cloud computing.
Earnings Analysis: ASML reported an EPS of 3.11 in Q1 2024, with a net profit margin of 23.13%. The company has provided earnings forecasts for the future, with an estimated EPS of 19.14 for FY2024 and 29.86 for FY2025. These forecasts indicate expected growth in the company's earnings.
Trend Analysis: The stock price of ASML has been trending upwards, with a current price of $930.29. The stock has shown support at $896.14 and resistance at $942.14. The average cost of the stock is $932.92. The recent capital flow data shows a positive inflow of $6.59 million.
Valuation Analysis: Analysts have provided target price estimates for ASML, with a mean target price of $1067.12. The low and high target estimates are $761.18 and $1213.00, respectively. The analyst recommendation for the stock is positive, with 4 analysts recommending and 5 analysts rating it as a buy.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)
Business and Industry: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is a Taiwanese company that specializes in the manufacturing of semiconductors. They provide foundry services to chip designers and manufacturers worldwide. The semiconductor industry is expected to grow in the future, driven by increasing demand for electronic devices and emerging technologies such as AI and 5G.
Earnings Analysis: TSM reported an EPS of 8.70 in Q1 2024, with a net profit margin of 38.05%. The company has provided earnings forecasts for the future, with an estimated EPS of 6.26 for FY2024 and 7.86 for FY2025. These forecasts indicate a slight decrease in earnings for FY2024 but a recovery in FY2025.
Trend Analysis: The stock price of TSM has been trending upwards, with a current price of $149.26. The stock has shown support at $130.6 and resistance at $145.3. The average cost of the stock is $139.58. The recent capital flow data shows a positive inflow of $252.48 million.
Valuation Analysis: Analysts have provided target price estimates for TSM, with a mean target price of $151.97. The low and high target estimates are $113.00 and $183.00, respectively. The analyst recommendation for the stock is positive, with 7 analysts recommending and 7 analysts rating it as a buy.
SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC (SMCI)
Business and Industry: Super Micro Computer Inc is an American company that designs and manufactures high-performance server solutions. They provide server hardware, storage solutions, and networking products to enterprise customers. The demand for server solutions is expected to grow in the future, driven by increasing data storage and processing needs.
Earnings Analysis: SMCI reported an EPS of 7.13 in Q3 2024, with a net profit margin of 10.45%. The company has provided earnings forecasts for the future, with an estimated EPS of 23.60 for FY2024 and 34.07 for FY2025. These forecasts indicate expected growth in the company's earnings.
Trend Analysis: The stock price of SMCI is currently $798.50. The stock has shown support at $693.00 and resistance at $802.00. The average cost of the stock is $848.53. The recent capital flow data shows mixed results, with both inflows and outflows in the past few days.
Valuation Analysis: Analysts have provided target price estimates for SMCI, with a mean target price of $1057.47. The low and high target estimates are $285.00 and $1500.00, respectively. The analyst recommendation for the stock is mixed, with 3 analysts recommending, 10 analysts rating it as a buy, 4 analysts rating it as a hold, and 1 analyst rating it as underperform.
Please note that the above analysis is based on available data and should not be considered as investment advice. It is important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions.
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