To The Moon

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

Not in vain did I stay up all night, anxiously awaiting - I finally witnessed the $2 Billion Bro's 5th massive roll of his Nvidia position:

Closed $NVDA 20240621 880 Call$, rolled to $NVDA 20240920 950 Call$

Expiry: Rolled from June 21 to September 20
Strike: Rolled from 880 to 950
Contracts: 37,700 lots unchanged
Premium: $652 million rolled to $625 million

The $2B Bro remains unfazed, redeploying virtually his entire capital yet again into the new roll, leaving around $360 million on the sidelines.

Choosing the September expiry aligns with his typical playbook - targeting 3-4 months out. I'd expect him to likely re-leverage and roll to higher strikes ahead of Nvidia's July earnings.

The most insightful parts of each roll are the new strike levels selected: 1) They represent the expected median trading range, and 2) Allow us to back into his upside target price.

The strike selected essentially forecasts the median trading range over the next two months. Previously 820 and 880 were chosen, which captured Nvidia's $800-920 realized range over the prior two months.

Assuming no curve balls, a 900-1020 trading band for the next two months seems a reasonable forecast based on the new 950 strikes.

Additionally, we can use the roll premium paid to extrapolate his targeted upside price expectation: Strike + Premium = Price Target, so 950 + 165.7 = 1115.7, rounding to $1,120.

Some may wonder if the $2B Bro considered closing out ahead of the upcoming split, given older options tend to see liquidity dry up post-split.

My view is he likely won't - players at his size can access direct broker inventory facilities for liquid exits when needed.

I also notice the smaller Nvidia bears getting restless down below. No need to fret, it's customary for stocks to consolidate after these massive institutional rolls. Some pullback is probably coming, but how one aims to profit from the inevitable downswings is their own prerogative. Buying puts seems an inefficient premium-burning strategy, at least.

I'll reiterate my stance of simply stock holding while opportunistically selling put/call spreads on dips/rips to capitalize on any volatility expansion.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$

Closed $TSM 20240816 110 Call$, rolled to $TSM 20240816 140 Call$

Expiry: Remained at August 16
Strike: Rolled from 110 to 140
Contracts: Reduced from 65,000 to 57,500 lots
Premium: Reduced from $310 million to $126 million

Revisiting my prior commentary, it appears there was more than just the 47,500 lots of 110 calls showing initially - likely some were closed out on Thursday.

The reduced premium deployed signals this trader has shifted to a more speculative bullish stance rather than an all-in bet, unwilling to miss any further upside but acknowledging reduced conviction.

While harder to evaluate, TSM isn't a name at risk of falling off a cliff either. So I'd still advocate stock holding while selling puts.

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$

Closed $META 20240816 405 Call$, rolled to $META 20240816 440 Call$

Expiry: Remained at August 16
Strike: Rolled from 405 to 440
Contracts: Increased from 22,500 to 27,000 lots
Premium: Reduced from $173 million to $139 million

Similar speculative bullish view like TSM - reducing overall risk while keeping upside exposure via higher strikes. Same put-selling advice for those looking to capitalize.

$Qualcomm(QCOM)$

Closed $QCOM 20240920 160 Call$, rolled to $QCOM 20240920 190 Call$

Expiry: Remained at September 20
Strike: Rolled from 160 to 190
Contracts: Increased from 18,500 to 23,500 lots
Premium: Reduced from $91.69 million to $59.925 million

Adopting a more conservative speculative bullish stance like TSM and META - less premium at risk despite higher strike levels. Selling puts is viable for those sufficiently capitalized.

While on the topic of semis, a quick note on AMD and Tesla (TSLA):

Look for AMD to top out in the $170-172.5 range next week before potentially pulling back.

As for TSLA, shenanigans galore are in store next week. Previous put sellers have flipped to call buyers, targeting $185 strikes. But another smaller player has emerged selling 187.5 calls. So splitting the difference, look for TSLA to potentially close next Friday somewhere between $185-187.5.