Why will this stock 10x in the next two years
Ok so here we go, my evidence to support why Rklb stock price is going to the moon...
1. The company recently announced the appointment to the board of Lt. general Armagno who retired from the DOD recently and was in charge of space forces. Hmmm I wonder if she knows people who make the big decisions about DOD space contracts going forward? But more on that in a bit.
2. New Zealand has recently been added to US military trade laws. What's that about? well America can buy foreign military technology but it won't share strategicly important information with other countries. Now a lot of the rocket lab development happens in the USA but a lot also occurs in NZ, the American engineers can't share with the kiwi engineers, my understanding is that this US policy change has enabled the sharing of intelligence both ways. Interesting, why would American do this? Is something going on here? my enquiring mind says, hell yes. And this sort of stuff doesn't just happen, some huge strings are being pull me thinks.
3. The DOD has announced it is seeking just over US$130 billion for space related spending in 2025, broken down in the third pic I shared in this post. Hmmm rocket lab has a backlog of just over $1 billion atm, I could see that easily 10x next year, even 100x next year. Something is up. Obviously I can only share 3 pics here, the three I shared are all reputable sources but I have a lot more. Like that famous carpenters song "I've only just begun"
4. Other information sources lead me to conclude that the US military really needs to remain at the cutting edge especially in comms and earth observation. They need satellite constellations that can do this reliably. And people who can keep their mouths zipped. So far rocket lab has said virtually Nothing. Well Adam spice the CFO did hint at the idea of satellite constellations in his latest interview, but very very easy to miss.
There are only two American space companies that have a proven record of launching in recent times, space X (ceo that continues to talk too much) and Rklb with 48 launches and only four that failed, first 3, well that's better than others, and one crazy anomaly last year.
Anyway, my point, if the US government was to fund Rklbs development of one, two even three satellite constellations, its a game changer. We go from $100 million a quarter to a billion a quarter. And the CEO and CFO keep reiterating that scaling production is way more important than producing a one off.
I believe that's why their neutron rocket launch has been pushed out to mid 2025, they don't need one rocket, they need ten.
Is it all an easy ride to 10x? No it's rocket science. One loose bolt and kaboom. But I see some very serious signs that Rklb is backed by the people that decide. I'd appreciate your thoughts, please comment tigers[Grin] @TigerPicks @Tiger_chat @TigerClub @TigerPM @SPACE ROCKET @Barcode
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Just one point though, i realise the DOD contract could be conceived as highly contested, but i don’t see that so myuch because rklb and space X are the only two companies that are successful. All the others have existing contracts that they have yet to deliver on. As a person who issues contracts to contractors, no way im giving more contracts to people thathave not delivered on the ones i have already issued.
As always though, appreciate that you did base your insights on a basis of carefully considered ideas, supported by solid evidence, rather refreshing.
Remember though im posting with an emotional lense, so im looking at, things not said, power plays, relationships, body language
Hey EI @Emotional Investor, thank you for the 🏷️ on your post. here's my take on it:
1. Lt. Gen. Armagno’s Board Appointment:
True, Lt. Gen. Nina Armagno joining Rocket Lab’s board is quite the coup [oai_citation:1,Rocket Lab Welcomes Lt. Gen. Nina Armagno to Board of Directors | Rocket Lab](https://www.rocketlabusa.com/updates/rocket-lab-welcomes-lt-gen-nina-armagno-to-board-of-directors/) [oai_citation:2,Retired Space Force Lt. Gen. Armagno joins Rocket Lab board](https://www.federaltimes.com/management/leadership/2023/11/02/retired-space-force-lt-gen-armagno-joins-rocketlab-board/) [oai_citation:3,Retired Space Force Lt. Gen. Armagno joins Rocket Lab’s board of directors - SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/retired-space-force-lt-gen-armagno-joins-rocket-labs-board-of-directors/) [oai_citation:4,Rocket Lab Appoints Lt. Gen. Armagno as Board Member](https://spacewatch.global/2023/11/rocket-lab-appoints-lt-gen-armagno-as-board-member/). Her experience with the U.S. Space Force is impressive, but assuming this translates directly to massive DOD contracts is like expecting to find gold at the end of every rainbow. Connections help, but they’re not a magic wand for contracts.
2. New Zealand’s Role in US Military Trade:
Your tale of New Zealand suddenly becoming a major player in U.S. military trade sounds exciting, but it’s more fiction than fact. No substantial policy changes are enabling extensive new intelligence sharing with Kiwi engineers. Let’s not weave too much fantasy into our investment strategies; Rocket Lab’s real innovations are happening within existing frameworks.
3. DOD’s $130 Billion Space Spending:
Sure, the DOD is splashing cash on space tech [oai_citation:5,Retired Space Force Lt. Gen. Armagno joins Rocket Lab’s board of directors - SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/retired-space-force-lt-gen-armagno-joins-rocket-labs-board-of-directors/), but suggesting Rocket Lab will corner enough of that market to 10x or 100x its backlog is a bit far-fetched. Competition for these funds is fierce, and many companies are vying for a slice of that pie. It’s a crowded race, not a solo sprint to the moon.
4. Satellite Constellations and the Quiet CFO:
Hints from CFO Adam Spice about satellite constellations are intriguing, but whispers alone won’t launch us into a financial stratosphere. The space sector thrives on concrete plans and clear contracts, not just quiet hints and hopes. Silence may be golden, but clarity is priceless when it comes to investor confidence.
5. Neutron Rocket Delays:
Pushing the Neutron rocket launch to mid-2025 isn’t exactly the green light for massive growth; it’s an acknowledgment that building rockets is tough. They need more than just ambition; they need precision and reliability. Last year’s anomaly reminds us that one loose bolt can derail the best-laid plans [oai_citation:6,Rocket Lab Appoints Lt. Gen. Armagno as Board Member](https://spacewatch.global/2023/11/rocket-lab-appoints-lt-gen-armagno-as-board-member/).
So, while Rocket Lab has potential, banking on a 10x return in the next two years is more wishful thinking than sound strategy. Let's keep our feet on the ground and our investments realistic. After all, even in space, gravity still applies!
Cheers to smart investments and solid facts!
@SPACE ROCKET @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerPM @TigerObserver @MillionaireTiger @Tiger_comments @Rocketgirl @Long Rocket @rockets @MrRocket @Rocket Chief @CaptCrash
I appreciate your recognition of my reference to "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance." It’s indeed a thought-provoking book by Robert M. Pirsig that delves into the philosophy of quality and values, exploring the dichotomy between classical and romantic understanding of the world. The book is widely available through various bookstores and online retailers such as Amazon and Barnes & Noble, making it accessible to anyone interested in its profound insights. It is not, by any means, a lewd or inappropriate work.
However, it's concerning that you’re trying to shift the focus away from the lewd language and references in your recent post, which made me and others uncomfortable. Deflecting attention to my literary reference instead of addressing the inappropriate comments is not constructive. Additionally, using terms like "WTF" is unnecessary and adds to the discomfort.
Given this, I'm sorry that I must reconsider our planned coffee/brunch meet up. It's important for our discussions and interactions to remain respectful and considerate of all community members. Let’s strive to keep our conversations meaningful and appropriate for everyone here.
Hope you understand.
@TigerWire @SPACE ROCKET