To The Moon

Time to rollover position

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

Let's start with what everyone cares about most - Tesla. The bad news is the rally has been so furious that there's lack of consensus on positioning. The good news is we're not yet at $265.

Previously, I outlined Tesla's first upside target of $220-$240, with $265 as the next logical extension. Little did I expect the first phase to complete within just a week. So now we continue higher, but the path is uncertain.

Looking at this week, closing call strikes were very elevated - market makers bailed out of 11,000 contracts on the $235 calls. Similar sizes were closed on the $230 and $240 strikes around 9,000 each.

But new opening interest is all over the place. Based on maximum unresolved open interest, estimates range anywhere from sub-$250 to sub-$265 for the weekly close - a massive gap. Put interest suggests the close is more likely above $240.

So for July 5th expiry, the expected range seems $240-$250, or perhaps $250-$265.

Next week is trickier. Call buyers are split into two camps - one sees $245 as the ceiling, the other $260-$270. Put sellers remain very conservative, clustered at $220-$230 strikes.

Translating to expected ranges: July 12th $220-$245 or $245-$265.

July 19th expectations are similarly conservative on the upside around $250, though notably over 10,000 $240 calls were closed out over the past two days.

Putting it all together, $240 doesn't seem expensive, $245 is acceptable.

I sold some July 12th $235 puts for now$TSLA 20240712 235.0 PUT$  . Will hold off on call sales for this week and re-assess next week.

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

Previously expected a $120-$125 range this week, similar for next. Opening interest is tightly clustered around $120-$130.

I sold some July 12th $135 calls on NVDA. $NVDA 20240712 135.0 CALL$ 

With the stock surging, I'll wait for a pullback before considering put sales at either $120 or $115 strikes.

$Apple(AAPL)$

Next week's options saw very light trading, likely overshadowed by Tesla's fireworks.

Apple has now pushed into the $220-$240 range, so while extended, it doesn't scream expensive yet.

My prior shares were called away, so I'll look to re-establish via put sales.

For an aggressive put sale, I'll look at the July 12th $220 puts $AAPL 20240712 220.0 PUT$ . Call sales premium is too low to justify capping upside.