To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

Yesterday, the highest strike for new Tesla call option opening interest was the September 20th $230 calls with 65,000 contracts added.

The main contributor was a familiar roll trader that we all know - the same player who was previously short the $185 calls, covered that position on June 28th by buying the $200 calls, and then on Monday rolled that $200 call position up to the $230 strikes:

• Closed: $TSLA 20240816 200 Call$

• Opened: $TSLA 20240920 230 Call$

Based on the order prints, it shows a 54,000 contract roll up to 68,000 contracts, with $310 million in closing trades and $270 million in new opening premium paid.

Let's do the math on the upside target - $230 strike plus $39.80 is $269.80, aligning with our prior expectations of last year's highs.

With no June market pullback, July is also unlikely to see one. Pullback expectations have been pushed to August. But if August just consolidates sideways, those options become worthless. So July shoulders the burden of further Tesla upside.

After $265, don't get complacent - $300 remains on the horizon.

This week's $300 calls saw 8,140 contracts added yesterday, moving into the second highest opening call interest behind $245.

The July 19th $300 calls saw 19,900 new contracts added, becoming the highest opening call interest for that weekly expiry.

Looking closer, there weren't really any large blocks. It was mostly smaller orders driving this $300 call buying - reflecting the current market psyche.

But let's not get too excited - those retail call buyers are typically the cannon fodder.

Will $300 eventually be tagged this year? Almost certainly. Whether it happens in July is still uncertain. But I'm not reducing exposure until we get there.

With such aggressive upside pricing, I'm going to switch gears and look to sell some at-the-money $250 puts for this week's expiry.

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

On Monday, the $130 calls continued seeing buyers piling in with another 19,000 contracts added.

Overall, this week is shaping up for some upside fireworks, with heavy call buying above $130 raising the possibility of an upside squeeze.

One other noteworthy flow - sellers closed out the July 19th $130 calls while simultaneously opening sales of the $134 calls, reflecting an expected ceiling around $134 for next week's close.

I'll continue holding my $135 call sales for now. In theory I could roll up to selling the $140 or $145 calls, but after evaluating the premiums, I'll stand pat.

$Apple(AAPL)$

On Monday, the largest flow was institutions selling the August 2nd $230-$235 call spreads against long stock positions.

So expectations remain centered in the $220-$240 zone. Factoring in limited downside risk for Apple, I'm looking to sell a more aggressive $225 put for this week's expiry.

Touching on the August pullback expectations - this is really just being pushed out from the lack of a clear pullback in June and July.

But if June/July didn't give us one, August could also delay. It's all uncertain at this point. For now, I'll focus on the current resilient uptrend.