To The Moon

The last time we talked about cryptocurrency was 2-3 months ago, when Bitcoin had just completed a mid-level zigzag adjustment, and it looked like it was about to restart its rally. However, the advancement of the market is another result. The larger A-B-C correction has not broken through the downward channel by mid-October.

Considering the approaching time of the U.S. election and the high levels of gold and the other two carriages of the U.S. stock index, the time to keep a long position seems to be increasingly limited at present.

From the perspective of the weekly level, Bitcoin once fell below the 50,000 mark in the previous round of deep exploration, which made its height drop significantly even if the subsequent upward market was launched.

At present, according to the form, it may be about 84,000-85,000, which is far lower than the 9.3-9.6 W estimated a few months ago. Judging from the current price around 6.3 W, there is room for an increase of around 30%. Considering that the actual volatility is relatively large, it is not uncommon for a 20% increase in a single month in the past year. Therefore, if it really starts, the growth rate has a chance to meet the conditions. The only question now is, where are the drivers?

The Federal Reserve's 50 basis point interest rate cut in September was once considered a major positive, but in fact it only helped prices stabilize and get out of a wave of rebound, and has not even touched and tested channel resistance.

With the deduction of time, the 6.8 W/7W range has become a key suppression. If the adjustment from the end of September to the present has ended, then theoretically, there should be a small-level main rising trend stronger than that in early September within 2-3 weeks. On the contrary, if it returns below 5.2/4.9 W, it will announce the end of the long market. Of course, the probability of this possibility appearing at the end of the year/early next year is relatively small.

Regarding whether the presidential candidate has an impact, on the whole, we think we can refer to the significance for gold and US stocks: the victory of the Democratic Party means that the decline will be delayed for 3-6 months, and when Trump takes office, there will be a bubble squeeze in a relatively short period of time. trend.

As for what encryption friendliness was said before the election canvassing, etc., let's hear it and calculate it, but it can't be taken seriously. Even if you really want to support cryptocurrency, it is better to press first and then pull than to take over at a high position without thinking.

Finally, regarding Ethereum, as the second child, its status and price trend are more and more like precious metal silver. Therefore, even if Bitcoin hits a record high in the future, Ethereum is likely to be unable to reach a new high. Whether buying BTC and empty ETH as a hedge, or as the main short target in future declines, Ethereum can be used as a tool. Correspondingly, if you want to do more, then Bitcoin must have a higher priority than Ethereum's.

In the long run, Bitcoin is expected to become the only non-US dollar (stablecoin)-bound benchmark asset in the encryption market, while the market value and share of Ethereum will be swallowed up by other public chains and inexplicable concepts.

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