To The Moon

Two Updates: Nvidia Earnings Expectations Around $160, Tesla Naked Call Sellers Take Losses and Exit

$Nvidia (NVDA)$

Expecting NVDA to close this week around $140-$150, with initial earnings projections above $160.

According to new open interest data, large traders have started positioning for next week's earnings report, adding predominantly bullish options exposure overall.

Three notable option trade groups:

The largest new Opening positions were the December $180 and $190 calls:
$NVDA 20241220 180.0 CALL$  - Opened 25,000 contracts
$NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL$  - Opened 25,000 contracts

The directional bias is unclear, possibly buying the $180s and selling the $190s, or vice versa. Either way represents bullish opening trades.

The second major transaction was a closing roll combo:
Closed $NVDA 20250321 215.0 CALL$  and $NVDA 20250321 165.0 CALL$ 
Opened $NVDA 20250117 160.0 CALL$  and $NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL$ 

This was an institutional crowd trade, likely buying the $160 calls and selling the $190s based on previous experience interpreting these flows.

While rolling down the expiration can signal a more bearish stance, there wasn't a clear downside bias in this adjustment beyond collecting premium on the sale.

The third unusual trade closed March 2025 $134 calls, rolling into December 2025 $168 calls:
Closed $NVDA 20250321 134.0 CALL$ 
Opened $NVDA 20251219 168.0 CALL$ 

Despite not being a crowd print, this was also a more complex multi-leg order. Rolling up the strike is typically seen as a bullish adjustment.

Putting it together, these large players are anchoring around a $160+ strike heading into earnings, expressing an overall bullish bias.

I sold the $156 calls $NVDA 20241115 156.0 CALL$  this week, as well as next week's $135 puts $NVDA 20241122 135.0 PUT$ .

$Tesla (TSLA)$

In my article from November 8th, I mentioned someone had sold large naked call trades - the November 29th $300 calls $TSLA 20241129 300.0 CALL$  and December 6th $300 calls $TSLA 20241206 300.0 CALL$ .

On Wednesday, they bought back both of those short call positions to close for roughly 100% losses.

The timing of this cover is quite interesting. The trader likely felt TSLA would not drop below $300 before late November, so they bit the bullet and took the loss on this pullback.

As a bull, I certainly hope they're right. But considering the initial trade was likely ill-advised, there's a decent chance the covering decision was also premature. It does suggest the market is gradually accepting TSLA's valuation above $300 though.

I'm maintaining my TSLA call positions while also selling put spreads like the $280 puts $TSLA 20241122 280.0 PUT$  to reduce my overall premium outlay.