To The Moon

The period from Trump's victory in the US election to his official entry into the White House looks expected to make a smooth transition. In addition to Biden's official statement, the crude oil market also gave the same signal. Although the key low of 63.6 was repeatedly tested, the bulls were able to save the day, which implies that there will be no obvious change in risk appetite in the short term.

The three key range positions of crude oil: 63-70-84 respectively represent the lowest point of the range, the level of repurchased crude oil reserves previously stated by the US government, and the central axis price in the past two years. Although after the first quarter of this year, oil prices remained trading below the central axis level, and seemed to rebound one wave after another, the inability to make further progress still shows that everyone's overall mood is stable and there is no risk of panic.

With the devouring rebound at the weekly level last week, it is very likely that it will continue to maintain a relatively volatile trend at the end of the year, but it is still difficult to break through the central axis.

In this case, major trend varieties such as U.S. stocks and Bitcoin will maintain their situation in the next 1-2 months, and will not peak and reverse soon. This is slightly different from what we expected before. Now the impact of Trump's election on the market has become consistent with Harris's: bearish in the medium term, but with a transition period.

Of course, the market is not completely without the warning of leading signals. From the perspective of large categories, the US dollar has made a breakthrough at the weekly/monthly level, opening up more bullish space. It is expected that after the short-term repair trend and stepping back, the strength of the US dollar will become the main tone. In the past, a strong dollar was usually accompanied by poor other markets.

In addition, it is easy for us to notice that there are also obvious new king characteristics in the subdivided US stocks.

After Nvidia's relatively good financial report, it failed to accelerate its upward trend. Instead, it fluctuated at high levels and fell back. Obviously, the last president's heart is unlikely to continue to shine in the Trump era. Correspondingly, everyone knows that Tesla's recent rise and take-off is naturally related to Musk's work and efforts. In addition, the trend of micro-strategy (MSTR) in the past month has also been quite crazy, and the logic behind it is naturally the bull market of cryptocurrencies. It should be noted that MSTR's strategy itself has the characteristics of stepping on the right foot with the left foot. It is hard to say whether this future will become an uncertain factor.

With the Thanksgiving-Christmas holiday-New Year holiday coming, the traditional time of traders' vacation and inactive market trading will also come. Such periods are best suited for relatively flat market movements. Even if there are past cases of taking the opportunity to make surprise attacks, they are usually covered by the market in the short term and will not change the trend. Gradually lightening positions while pulling and running is still the suggested main direction at the end of this year. As for the trend change, only gold is certain at present, and the other two need more time and signals to guide us.

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