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Recently, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant upward trend, influenced by the U.S. presidential election and other key market developments. BTC has been setting new multi-day highs, with current market data from 3EX showing that its price has surpassed $80,000, reaching $81,053—a daily increase of 2.51%. Factors such as the Bitcoin halving cycle, approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and policy support from figures like Donald Trump have strengthened Bitcoin's standing in capital markets. With multiple bullish indicators converging, the market is abuzz with speculation about whether BTC could surpass the $100,000 milestone. This analysis, based on information from 3EX CryptoGPT, examines Bitcoin’s historical cycles and current market dynamics to evaluate the likelihood of such a breakthrough.

Bitcoin's Historical Data and Cyclical Patterns

Bitcoin's price dynamics are heavily influenced by its unique supply mechanisms and broader market conditions, particularly the "halving events" that occur approximately every four years. These halvings typically create supply shortages, driving significant price increases over time.

Key Milestones in Bitcoin’s History:

1. Initial Halving and Early Growth (2012-2013): Bitcoin's first halving in 2012 reduced mining rewards, creating a supply-demand imbalance. Market confidence grew alongside major developments, such as the establishment of Coinbase, Finland recognizing BTC as legal, and the founding of the Bitcoin Foundation. These factors contributed to Bitcoin’s price surging to $1,200 by 2013—a 100-fold increase.

2. Second Halving and 2017 Peak (2016-2017): In 2016, mining rewards were halved again, reducing them to 12.5 BTC per block. After a year of price consolidation, Bitcoin reached approximately $20,000 by the end of 2017, marking a nearly 30-fold increase post-halving. Contributing factors included Ethereum's rise, the ICO boom, and Bitcoin futures being introduced by the CME Group, all of which amplified demand and price momentum.

These historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin's price movements are closely tied to halving-induced supply constraints, coupled with external market catalysts. The analysis will further explore how current conditions may align with or diverge from these historical trends.

1. Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs

In January 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, delivering a significant boost to the crypto market. The introduction of these ETFs has lowered the barriers to entry, enabling traditional financial institutions and retail investors to allocate funds to Bitcoin more conveniently. Moreover, it has marked a critical step toward the legitimization and mainstream adoption of Bitcoin, paving the way for increased capital inflows.

2. Influence of Interest Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut policy offers another bullish signal for Bitcoin. Following a 50 basis points cut in September, the Fed implemented an additional 25 basis points reduction, signaling a shift toward more accommodative monetary policy in 2024. This adjustment follows a period of aggressive rate hikes in 2022 and reflects evolving market conditions.

Low interest rates typically enhance market liquidity by reducing borrowing costs, making riskier assets like Bitcoin more appealing. In such an environment, Bitcoin often performs well due to its high growth potential. As investors seek assets with better returns, Bitcoin’s attractiveness increases, further driving its price upward.

3. Policy Support from Donald Trump

Donald Trump's policy stance on Bitcoin has instilled renewed confidence in the market. With his re-election as U.S. president, Trump has reiterated his support for cryptocurrencies, vowing to position the U.S. as a "Bitcoin superpower." Proposed policies include reducing regulatory barriers and establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that with consistent policy direction, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 in 2024 and potentially $200,000 by the end of 2025. This strong policy backing is bolstering market sentiment.

Accelerated Path to $100,000

Bitcoin is currently riding a wave of converging bullish factors, including the halving event, ETF approvals, supportive policy, and a favorable macroeconomic environment. While short-term volatility is possible, these drivers collectively create strong upward momentum.

Conclusion

The historic milestone of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 will happen in December, as these factors fuel sustained demand and price growth over the next two years.

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