To The Moon

Gold showed an obvious surge and fall last week, suggesting that an important head of the market has been formed around 2800, and a new round of downward market is in the process of running. At the same time, the performance of the gold-silver ratio above the historical central axis also provides a solid long-term long-term direction of long-gold and short-silver.

From the weekly chart of the gold-silver ratio, it can be found that, except for some special stages, the overall ratio will still fluctuate within a relatively reasonable range. Generally speaking, the period when silver is strong and gold is weak will represent the situation where silver makes up for the increase and the overall precious metal is strong, while the environment where gold is particularly strong may only be due to the silver stagflation. In the current trend, the gold-silver ratio is above the historical central axis, but it faces weekly trend line suppression. This shows that there is a high probability that gold will not be able to get out of the obvious independent market as it has in the past few years. In other words, the opportunity of a medium-and long-term bull market reversal is increasing.

Comparing the weekly line of gold again, we can see that the obvious upper shadow tombstone shape is very similar to the top features of the previous round. In fact, in the live broadcast last Thursday night, we clearly gave the suggestion of shorting gold. In addition to the price pattern factor, a very suitable profit-loss ratio is also one of the important reasons (the entry of 2750 only requires 2-3% of the stop loss space, while looking down will at least explore the low point). Although the gold retreat is obvious, in the last two trading days of last week, the absolute decline of silver is still far ahead of that of gold, which is also what we emphasize. In the medium and long term, as long as the point is OK, we should adopt the hedging strategy of short silver and long gold (if traders themselves are unwilling to be easily bearish on gold).

As an old bull who has been bullish on gold for N years, it is not simple to make strategic adjustments, but it also means that the market is indeed facing major changes. Different from the theoretical infinite possible long direction, short selling is essentially a mode of making quick money but limited space. This means that more often than not, we need to find suitable cost performance and entry opportunities, instead of continuous fixed investment and waiting for the market to be pulled like long in the medium and long term. Therefore, in the article and live broadcast later, if there is a suitable opportunity, I will introduce it to you. Everyone should also make choices according to their own trading time period in trading.

Back to the market, now judging whether there will be a huge crash in gold, I personally think it remains to be seen further. Whether it is a complex consolidation pattern or a real bear market, more technical trends are needed to confirm. At present, for short sellers, it will be a more pragmatic goal to test the low above 2500 twice, and traders can now correct the stop loss to the entry or above last week's high. Normally, even if there is a rebound and correction, there should not be a higher second high.

In the last year, I would also like to thank you for your support. I hope we can continue to find more profit opportunities and strategies in futures trading next year. The last part is the advertising time, which you can understand by looking at the pictures below.

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