To The Moon

🎉 Greetings Tigers, 🐯

🎅🏻 A warm welcome back from the Christmas break! 🎄

📈 The Santa Rally persists, with the U.S. stock market experiencing gains over two consecutive trading sessions. 🚀

🚀 Bitcoin is on an upward trajectory, aiming for the $100,000 mark, and large-cap tech stocks including $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Apple(AAPL)$ , $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , and $Broadcom(AVGO)$ are all trending upwards in unison.

As of post, 13 sectors of $.SPX(.SPX)$ all marked rise in 2024.

🔮 As 2024 draws to a close, the focus shifts to the anticipations and strategies for 2025, which have become the paramount task for investors at this juncture. 💼📈

Wishing you all a prosperous and successful year ahead! 🥳🎊

Recently, @Tiger_James Ooi, Market Strategy Analyst at Tiger Broker Singapore, has provided an in-depth analysis covering various aspects of the U.S. stock market. His insights include expectations for the market, the anticipated effects of the Trump administration, a technical analysis of market trends, and a comprehensive exploration of the AI industry's value chain and the opportunities it presents.

We invite you to tune in to the 1 hr live replay by your convinience: Full live link replay >>

For a more detailed understanding, it is advised that you click on the highlighted opinion excerpts. This will allow you to delve into the rationale behind the analyst' conclusions and gain a deeper insight into his perspectives.

• [Tiger Live Ⅰ] 2025 US Market Outlook: Trump’s Policy & Beneficial Sectors

• [Tiger Live Ⅱ] 2025 US Market Outlook: US Tariff

• [Tiger Live Ⅲ] 2025 Outlook: AI Value Chain & Stars Stocks of AI S-curve in 4 Phases

• [Tiger Live Ⅳ] 2025 SPX Target & Pullbacks Forecast of Trump’s 1st Year

• [Tiger Live Ⅴ] Technical Analysis, Downside & Upside Catalysts on SPX

Below are some key insights and viewpoints curated by @TBlive , specifically tailored to the U.S. stock investment landscape. Hope it will help you understand the market and get the main picture of 2025.

1.What Sectors will benefit from Trump’s Policies

During the webinar, James pointed out that Trump’s policies are pro-growth and pro-business, which should have a positive impact on the US stock market in 2025.

In detial>>[Tiger Live Ⅰ] 2025 US Market Outlook: Trump’s Policy & Beneficial Sectors

Source from James Ooi

James pointed out that financial , cyclical sectors such as banks, automobile industry and technology companies will benefit under Trump 2.0, and he considers the energy sector to be neutral.

Source from James Ooi

Source from James Ooi

USA expected to ease capital rules, allowing banks to have fewer constraints and use more cash for lending or share buybacks. I think one of the better ways to gain exposure is through bank ETFs, like the $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ ETF. Additionally, I like $Visa(V)$ , $MasterCard(MA)$ , or $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ .

I believe if Trump really revokes the $7,500 tax credit for EVs, it could potentially benefit $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ .

Trump previously vowed to cut U.S. energy costs by 50% within the next year. Trump also wants to quickly expand oil and gas drilling. However, I am unsure about the energy sector. This is because Trump wants to reduce energy prices to fight inflation. So, ultimately, I don’t think oil and gas companies will benefit much.

2.Regarding the US tariff

Read more>>[Tiger Live Ⅱ] 2025 US Market Outlook: US Tariff

James believes the U.S. will try to impose tariffs on countries that have the largest trade deficit with the U.S. and on countries that have had the highest increase in their trade deficit with the U.S. in 2023 compared to 2018.

These are some of the countries that may be at risk of higher tariffs. But it's not all gloom and doom. Companies can request tariff exemptions.

So, while tariffs may sound serious on paper, ultimately, if most companies are exempted from them, then you shouldn't be worried about the inflation risk.

To me, the best way for a country to defend itself from U.S. tariffs is through currency depreciation or by reaching a deal with the U.S. as soon as possible.

3.US Equities Outlook for 2025

[Tiger Live Ⅳ] 2025 SPX Target & Pullbacks Forecast of Trump’s 1st Year

Various research houses provided 2025 year-end forecasts for the $.SPX(.SPX)$, on average, the year-end target is 6,658, representing a 13% upside compared to yesterday's closing price of 5,872. and The most bullish research house is Oppenheimer, they predict a target price of 7,100.

Source from James Ooi

Personally, James’s base case scenario for the year-end 2025 target price is 6,711, representing a 14% upside as well.

• In the worst-case scenario, he expect the $.SPX(.SPX)$ to close at 5,100 in 2025, representing a 13% downside. And the EPS is expetcts to grow at 6% year-over-year.

• In the best-case scenario, James expect $.SPX(.SPX)$ to go up by 20% to close the year at 7,330. He expects the EPS to grow 15% year-over-year.

Source from James Ooi

• James also shared data indicates that, generally, 59% of the time, the first half and second half of January, $.SPX(.SPX)$ generate positive returns, the average return is 0.44% for the first half and 0.61% for the second half of January.

• Moreover, historical data tells us that when the $.SPX(.SPX)$ is up more than 20% for two consecutive years, 67% of the time, the following year’s return is positive.
  The average return for the next year is 8%. Median return is 13%.

• And the $.SPX(.SPX)$ provides an average return of 10% in the first year of presidential terms, since 1960. So, it’s probably a good idea to stay optimistic for 2025.

Regarding the pullbacks, James mentioned that the $.SPX(.SPX)$ may experience some sell-offs during two periods:

• First, from mid-February to the end of March.

• Second, from early August to the end of September.

Source from James Ooi

If we look at the S&P 500 returns in the first year of U.S. presidential terms since 1950, the average return is -1.55% in February, -1.38% in August, and -0.28% in September.

Source from James Ooi

However, seasonality is just seasonality. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn’t. So, the moral of the story is that seasonality can offer guidance for investing, but it should not stop you from investing if seasonality doesn’t play out as expected.

Then, James added Technical Analysis on $.SPX(.SPX)$ :

[Tiger Live Ⅴ] Technical Analysis, Downside & Upside Catalysts on SPX

Here are the Fibonacci confluence zones for the $.SPX(.SPX)$. To me, the major resistance is 6,850. TA tells me that 2025 target price is 6850.
If you are waiting for some support levels to accumulate, 5,900 or 5,500 may be good support levels. To me, the S&P 500 must hold above 5,900 to resume the bullish trend.

Source from James Ooi

Here are the downside and upside catalysts for the us equity market by James Ooi.

By James Ooi

Source from James Ooi

Basically, I look at two things to check if investors are still underinvested.

• Firstly, money on the sidelines. There is still $6.7 trillion in money market funds (MMF). This is about 41% higher than the COVID high.

• Secondly, FINRA margin debt. FINRA margin debt is the amount of money investors borrow from margin accounts, and the amount is currently $815 billion, about 13% lower than its all-time high. This indicates that investors may not have borrowed enough yet.

Source from James Ooi

Source from James Ooi

The earnings outlook for 2025 is not bad. It could help sustain the P/E ratio or even push it higher.

Source from James Ooi

Lastly, Trump is good for the stock market. During Trump 1.0, the $.SPX(.SPX)$ went up by 84% despite COVID19 and the trade war.

Source from James Ooi

All in all, James is optimistic about the U.S. equity market for the year 2025.

4. Outlooks for AI Boom and Detailed Stocks of AI Value Chain.

James Like technology stocks, espeacially are the AI stocks. [Tiger Live Ⅲ] 2025 Outlook: AI Value Chain & Stars Stocks of AI S-curve in 4 Phases

Many investors founded AI stocks are expensive by valuations. James pointed that the current performance of AI stocks still has room to run compare to dot-com bubble lasted from 1995 to 2000.

At dot-com bubble period, the $.SPX(.SPX)$ returned 265% by its peak, So far, the $.SPX(.SPX)$ has only gone up by 24%.

If AI is a bubble similar to the dot-com bubble, maybe it can continue for another 5 years, starting in 2024.

Source from James Ooi

$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ returned more than 1000% during the dot com bubble. And $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ only returned 27% so far in 2024. (The P/E ratio for the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is now trading at 35x. At the peak of the dot-com bubble, it was trading at 175x.)

Source from James Ooi

James share the AI value chain with stocks on each sector. He also Highlighted the coatue frameworek-AI S-Curve in 4 phases.

Source from James Ooi

James believe AI software companies could probably outperform in 2025. If you're unfamiliar with the names under these 4 phases, just remember that the "Magnificent Seven" stocks should benefit from this AI boom.

Source from James Ooi

Phase 1: Infrastructure

•Chips: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $Broadcom(AVGO)$ , $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ , $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ , $Cadence Design(CDNS)$ , $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , $Synopsys(SNPS)$

•Data Centers: $Oracle(ORCL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ , $Microsoft(MSFT)$

•Power: $Vistra Energy Corp.(VST)$ , $Constellation Energy Corp(CEG)$ , $BWX Technologies Inc(BWXT)$ , $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$

•Data: $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ , $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ , $Snowflake(SNOW)$

Phase 2: Edge AI

• $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ , $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ , $Apple(AAPL)$

Phase 3: Agentic AI

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ , $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , $Adobe(ADBE)$ , $Shopify(SHOP)$ , $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

Phase 4: Physical AI

• $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ , $Intuitive Surgical(ISRG)$

Finally, you might be intrigued by an example of an aggressive investment portfolio for 2025. Portfolio Traits:

• Mag 7 accounts for 60% of the portfolio weight.

• Semiconductor stocks account for 33% of the portfolio weight.

• AI-related stocks account for 80% of the portfolio weight.

• Stocks with lower correlation to AI account for 20% of the portfolio weight.

Source from James Ooi

Disclaimers: All investments involve risk, and it's crucial to conduct your own thorough research before making any trading decisions.

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