To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

The 115 puts $NVDA 20250307 115.0 PUT$  were closed on Friday, even earlier than expected. The open interest for the 115 puts has now dropped to just 59,300 contracts:

However, new bearish positions were immediately opened. The 119 puts expiring on March 14, $NVDA 20250314 119.0 PUT$ , saw 10,000 contracts opened with a transaction amount of over $5 million. Considering the short expiration date, the probability of these positions being closed in the next couple of days is high, likely betting on further tariff-related declines.

On the bullish side, institutions are selling calls with strike prices of 128 and 129 to hedge against 138 and 139, suggesting NVIDIA will likely fluctuate within the 120–130 range this week.

However, there was a large block trade on Friday involving the 150–175 range, although the direction is unclear:

$NVDA 20250620 150.0 CALL$ 

$NVDA 20250620 175.0 CALL$ 

This block trade occurred at 15:34, when NVIDIA's stock price was at 121.

The direction is not difficult to infer. It is most likely a bull call spread, buying the 150 call and selling the 175 call. While selling the 150 call and buying the 175 call (a bear spread) is also possible, it seems unlikely, as breaking through 150 in the next two months seems challenging. Opening a bearish spread at higher levels would be more reasonable.

There are reasons to buy calls as well, given that the GTC conference is approaching. Regardless of what Jensen Huang announces, expectations are often hyped up beforehand.

The weekly close is likely to be in the 120–130 range.

Additionally, after last week's earnings report, the 10,000 contracts of 120 calls $NVDA 20250417 120.0 CALL$  held by the "200 million player" (a large trader) have not been rolled over. It is unclear whether they are also waiting for the GTC conference.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

Looking at institutional sell call strike prices, Tesla is likely to remain below 310 this week, with the lower bound not expected to be worse than last week.

I noticed a large bearish ratio spread trade:

• Buy $TSLA 20250314 265.0 PUT$ 

• Sell $TSLA 20250314 250.0 PUT$  x2

By comparing transaction amounts, the premium for the puts bought is offset by the premiums from selling the puts. In other words, the bearish trader is betting on a sharp drop but doesn’t expect it to be very likely and doesn’t want to spend much money. Historically, after such trades appear, the stock price tends to stabilize.

On Friday, a long-term bullish institutional block trade rolled over to the 330 call $TSLA 20250516 330.0 CALL$ , suggesting a medium-term price target of around 330. Personally, I think 300 is more realistic.

$China Overseas Internet ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$

A floor trade opened 10,000 contracts for the April-expiring 35 call $KWEB 20250417 35.0 CALL$ . This could be part of a covered call strategy with held shares.

$China Large-Cap ETF-iShares(FXI)$

Large floor trades have taken a more conservative approach, reflecting a collar strategy with sell calls at 39 and buy puts at 34.

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$

The $GOOGL 20260116 250.0 CALL$  options showed some notable activity.

On February 26th and 28th, small but frequent purchases totaled 15,600 contracts and 17,000 contracts, respectively.

Based on transaction prices, the calculation is:

• $3.45 * 100 * 15,600 + $2.95 * 100 * 17,000$,
  with a total transaction amount exceeding $10 million.

However, I am not aware of any significant hidden bullish catalysts for Google. It might be worth waiting for the right-side trend to emerge before acting.