Wall Street Floor Large Orders: NVIDIA Year-End Lowest Expectation at 146

OptionsDelta
03-07

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

The "2 Billion" trader rolled over their April 120 call to June 120 call $NVDA 20250620 120.0 CALL$ .

The strike price remains unchanged, and the transaction volume is consistent, suggesting that the Q2 market is expected to mirror Q1.

On Wednesday, open interest rankings saw significant changes. For call options: $NVDA 20250620 120.0 CALL$  added 100,000 contracts, ranking fourth; weekly expiration 120 calls saw a surge in opening volume; 130 calls closed over 15,000 contracts.

Regarding put options: March monthly 120 puts rolled over into recent bearish positions. June expiration 90 puts added 30,000 new contracts, resulting in a higher ranking.

The 90 puts are not standalone but are paired with 90 calls to form a two-legged strategy $NVDA 20250620 90.0 CALL$  $NVDA 20250620 90.0 PUT$ . If the direction is correct, selling 90 puts and buying 90 calls represent a very conservative bullish bet.

The 120 puts $NVDA 20250321 120.0 PUT$  rolled over to 124 puts $NVDA 20250314 124.0 PUT$ , showing signs of a bottom.

Institutions sold calls for next week's 125 $NVDA 20250314 125.0 CALL$  and 126 $NVDA 20250314 126.0 CALL$ , hedging against 133 and 135. The 120 level is a critical benchmark.

A particularly instructive trade involves a floor butterfly spread: buying 146 calls, selling double the volume of 165 calls, and buying 190 calls:

The maximum profit for the butterfly strategy is achieved at the middle strike price. Losses are limited below the lower strike price (146) or above the upper strike price (190). Therefore, the trader forecasts NVIDIA's worst-case year-end scenario at above 146, a normal expectation at 165, and a high-end expectation below 190.

Butterfly Strategy Explanation: https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/education/courses/option-strategies/option-butterfly.html

$iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$

Although Chinese stocks surged on Wednesday, FXI options large orders indicate that traders lean toward protective or hedging strategies.

The largest opening volume for a put option was the 35 put $FXI 20250620 35.0 PUT$ , with 30,000 contracts traded, amounting to $4.62 million. While the transaction direction shows selling, the intraday bid-ask spread suggests it may have been a buy order that filled the entire bid, thus appearing as a sell. This put is likely a protective bearish position.

$FXI 20250919 37.0 CALL$  and $FXI 20250919 37.0 PUT$  were also active, with the put's price not particularly low, so this could indicate a straddle strategy (buying both puts and calls) to bet on significant volatility.

Selling $FXI 20250417 35.0 PUT$  and buying $FXI 20250620 35.0 PUT$  suggests a high likelihood of a major pullback before June, making a bearish calendar spread reasonable.

Buying $FXI 20250919 42.0 CALL$  and $FXI 20250919 35.0 PUT$  with a September expiration represents a straddle strategy, which is also logical.

Another notable trade involves a call-selling large order for ASHR $ASHR 20250620 30.0 CALL$ , with a June expiration, 30,000 contracts traded, and a total transaction value of $1.6199 million.

This large order can be interpreted in many ways, but the simplest explanation is that ASHR is unlikely to reach $30 by the end of June. With a current price of $0.54, selling it is profitable.

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$

On Wednesday, there was significant movement in PDD call options.

However, comparing transaction prices with bid-ask spreads reveals that the 145 calls were likely sold rather than bought, while the 125 calls were primarily bought. Bulls should be cautious not to mistakenly buy the wrong option.

$Intel(INTC)$

$INTC 20260116 60.0 CALL$  added 64,000 new open interest contracts, primarily through buying. The total transaction value was approximately $1.5 million.

It might be worth buying a small position for fun, but for serious allocation, I would choose TSMC instead.

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