To The Moon

Public Holidays

Singapore, Hong Kong, China & the USA have no public holidays in the coming week.

Economic Calendar (10 Mar 2025)

Economic Calendar

Notable Highlights

• JOLTs Job openings (Jan) will be shared. The previous number was 7.6 million. This coming update will help us understand the job market outlook and serve as a data reference for the Federal Reserve when making its next interest rate decision. 

• The Core CPI and CPI should be the most watched economic data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the references used for Inflation. The last CPI (YoY) was 3.0%. If inflation remains stubborn, it could affect the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions, likely causing some volatility in the market.

• The PPI data will also be released in the coming week. This is the inflation affecting producers. The PPI can be seen as a prelude of inflation affecting consumers (CPI), though this can take time (weeks) to hit the market.

• The responses to the 10-year note auction and 30-year bond auction are good indicators of how the market views the market. If there is more demand for the bonds (over equity and other asset classes), the market is seeking more stability instead of other asset classes with more volatility. This can be one of the reflections of the market’s risk appetite.

• Initial jobless claims will be announced. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy.

• Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. If the trend of excess inventories continues, demand erosion can lead to reduced production & weakened consumer spending.

Earnings Calendar (10 Mar 2025)

Weekly earnings calendar from Earnings whispers

I am interested in Asana’s, Zim, Adobe, UI Path and Oracle’s earnings.

Let us look at Oracle.

The Technical Analysis of Oracle has a recommendation of “Strong Sell”. Analysts sentiment has a rating of “Buy”. The price target is $194.82 for the stock, which suggests an upside of 25.56%.

Observations about the stock:

• Revenue grew from $38.2B (2015) to $52.96B (2024).

• The operating profit grew from $14.2B (2015) to $16.0B (2024).

• Earnings per share (EPS) grew from $2.21 (2015) to $3.71 (2024). The year with the best EPS is $4.55 (2021).

• The dividends per share grew from $0.51 (2015) to $1.60 (2024).

• The P/E ratio of Oracle is 37.3.

• The 10-year Median margins of gross and free cash flow (FCF) are 79.7% and 32.3%. These are strong numbers.

The EPS and revenue forecast for the coming earnings are $1.49 and $14.39B, respectively. Oracle can be a company worth more research before we add this to our portfolio.

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 10 Mar 2025

S&P500 dated 10 Mar 2025

Observations:

• The MACD indicator is starting a downtrend.

• Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 and MA200 lines are on an uptrend. The MA50 line may soon change direction. The last candle touched the MA200 line and is sitting below the MA50 line. This implies a bearish outlook for the mid-term, and a similar bearish trend should be seen for the long term.

• The 3 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a downtrend.

• Chaikin’s Monetary Flow (CMF) shows an uptrend (above the 0 line). However, the trend has been falling for the last few days.

The S&P500 Technical Analysis (Daily) is showing a “Strong Sell” rating. 20 indicators show a “Sell” rating, and 5 indicators show a “Sell” rating.

The candlestick patterns above point to a more “bearish” outcome.

With the above information, I lean towards a bearish outlook in the coming days.

News and my thoughts from last week (10 Mar 2025)

History of gold - from Bloomberg

China continues DUMPING US Treasuries: China's holdings fell by $77 billion in 2024 to $759 billion, the lowest in 15 YEARS. China is the world's second-largest foreign holder of US public debt after Japan. Are Treasuries losing safe haven status?! - X user Global Markets Investor

Bloomberg - falling behind on car payments

Car Buyers: The % of borrowers at least 2 months late on their car payments jumps to an all-time high - BarChart

Trump says tariffs on Mexico and Canada could go higher than a 25% rate imposed earlier this week, per Bloomberg.

The top 10% of earners in the U.S. now account for 49.7% of all spending in the US, per WSJ.

China’s exports in the January to February period rose 2.3% in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, significantly undershooting expectations of a 5% increase in a Reuters poll. Any concerns about China's manufacturing? - CNBC

Warren Buffett acts like the U.S. stock market is in bubble territory. He might be onto something. Is it "unfortunate" to think that the stock market is in bubble territory? - Fortune

In the past, this has been a SELL SIGNAL for US stocks: Institutional investors’ cash levels DROPPED to 3.5%, the lowest in 15 YEARS. This comes when the market has NEVER been so overvalued. Is the market overdue for a correction?!

TESLA MEGAPACK FACTORY TO BRING 1,500 JOBS COMING TO WALLER COUNTY. Tesla is building a 1-million-square-foot Megapack factory in Empire West Industrial Park, bringing 1,500 jobs to Waller County, Texas. The Waller County Commissioners Court approved a tax abatement program, backing Tesla’s expansion and investment in the region. The facility will focus on Megapack production, Tesla’s advanced energy storage system, strengthening grid reliability and renewable energy integration. With Tesla’s Texas operations growing, Waller County is emerging as a key hub for Elon’s vision of sustainable energy dominance. Waller County Officials: "Tesla’s investment in Waller County marks a major economic boost, bringing high-quality jobs and innovation to the region." Source: Teslarati

The CEO of Target says Trump’s Mexico tariffs could lead his company to raise produce prices in the next few days, per MorePerfectUnion.

CHINA TO ACCELERATE STOCKPILING OF STRATEGIC RESERVES China announced plans to speed up the annual stockpiling of fuel, food, and key commodities, expanding its massive reserve network. The state planner said it would boost storage facilities for grain, petroleum, and minerals while refining strategies for resource exploration and production. China, the world's largest raw material consumer, remains highly secretive about its reserves, with estimates suggesting hundreds of millions of tons in storage. Source: Reuters

RFK JR. PUSHES TO BAN HUNDREDS OF FOOD ADDITIVES RFK Jr. wants to eliminate harmful additives from the U.S. food supply, citing links to chronic health issues. Experts warn that stricter oversight and eliminating the GRAS loophole could drive up food prices, clashing with Trump’s push for cheaper groceries. Michael T. Roberts of UCLA Law: “There’s only one thing that cuts against a full investment in food safety, and that is the cost” Source: LA Times. What will happen to the food industry and the supporting ecosystem?

from X user the Kobeissi Letter

The US goods trade deficit widened 25.6% month-over-month to a record $153.3 billion in January. This was well above the expectations of $116.6 billion. Imports rose 11.9% to a record $325.4 billion, driven by industrial supplies and consumer goods. Exports rose 2.0% to $172.2 billion due to an increase in capital goods. The massive jump in imports likely reflects US firms securing shipments to avoid tariffs. The trade war is here. - by X user The Kobeissi Letter

My Investing Muse (10 Mar 2025)

Layoffs & Closure news

Hudson’s Bay, the Canadian department store chain founded in 1670, is preparing for a bankruptcy filing within days, people familiar with the matter said - WSJ

Big 4 fears layoffs with government consulting contracts under review. - Economic Times (India)

HPE to cut 2,500 employees as stock slides 19% on weak earnings outlook. Will HPE be able to ride out this storm? - CNBC

ALX Oncology, a Bay Area biotech firm currently running clinical trials for its anticancer therapy, announced Wednesday that it’s laying off about 30% of its staff. - SF Gate

Nearly 100 Companies Announce Layoffs In March, According To Reports - Forbes

February saw 46 companies lay off 15,994 employees. When compared to January, layoffs surged in February, resulting in a staggering 184% increase in the number of affected employees. - Indian Express

Microchip Technology to lay off 2,000 employees amid weak automotive demand - Business Times

The above are some snippets of news about layoffs and closures in the past week. There seems to be more of such news in recent weeks. Widespread retrenchment is one of the early signs of a market correction.

Is the S&P 500 market heading toward some storms?

This is a collective of relevant news from the last week about threats faced by the S&P 500.

From X user The Kobeissi Letter

The Nasdaq 100 has officially ended its streak of 497 trading days above its 200-day average, the second-longest streak in history. Yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 index closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 12th, 2023. After the previous stretch of ~450 days finished in January 2022, the Nasdaq 100 lost -5.7% over the next 2 weeks and -22.0% over the next year. Every time the index has closed below its 200-day moving average after a long run and subsequently dropped over -3.5% within 2 weeks, a bear market followed, according to Sentimentrader. On the other hand, when the decline was less than -3.5 % within 2 weeks, the index saw positive returns over the next year. History suggests the next 2 weeks are key for the market. - The Kobeissi Letter

Note that the Atlanta Fed has projected a potential GDP downturn as per the following post:

From Atlanta Fed

On March 3, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.8%: - Atlanta Fed

This is one of the most OVERVALUED markets in history: The S&P 500 is expensive on 19 out of 20 metrics, according to the BofA analysis. Metrics such as the Buffett Indicator (Market Cap to GDP ratio) are over 100% above historical averages- X user Global Markets Investor

From Isabelnet - Sentiment indicator where figures under 0 is considered negative sentiment https://www.isabelnet.com/sentiment-indicator-and-stock-positioning/#:~:text=The%20GS%20sentiment%20indicator%20has,in%20the%20current%20market%20climate.

The update from the GS sentiment indicator shows a cautious sentiment as per the 1st Mar 2025 update. Guess this was somewhat realized with the 3rd Mar 2025 red ending.

“I can’t tell you exactly when it’ll come; it’s like the heart attack (from too much debt),” Ray Dalio added. “You’re getting closer. My guess would be three years, give or take a year, something like that.” - Ray Dalio

Berkshire Hathaway unloaded its entire positions in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust — two low-cost exchange-traded funds the company had previously held for years. And that’s a move that may be spooking investors and causing them to question their own portfolios. Does the Oracle of Omaha see dark clouds gathering? - Yahoo Finance

I cannot speak on behalf of Berkshire. Typically, they hold their stocks so long they keep their moat. Can I submit for our consideration that the S&P500 may be losing their moat in the short or mid term?

My final thoughts

"Like Warren [Buffett], I had a considerable passion to get rich. Not because I wanted Ferraris – I wanted the independence. I desperately wanted it." - Charlie Munger via Benzinga post.

Should money be the only return of investment (ROI) coming to stocks and shares? In this season, the best returns for me are in the people, the learnings, and the ability to create value. Money cannot be the only return.

The market is showing signs of volatility. Let us consider some hedging. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose and do not leverage.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$Oracle(ORCL)$