To The Moon

The last economic report for the week dropped in on Fri, 14 Mar 2025.

According to the University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey, Americans are getting more and more concerned about Trump's escalating and haphazard trade war.

As a result, the US Consumer Sentiment fell to a more than 2-year low and long-term inflation expectations jumped by the most since 1993. (see below)

Consumer sentiment fell -11% in March 2025, to a preliminary reading of 57.9, down from February’s 64.7 and reaching its lowest level since November 2022.

That’s a really sharp retreat from December 2024’s, shortly after US presidential election, when sentiment rose to its highest level of “74” in months.

Funnily enough, the disappointing report did not dampen US market sentiments on Friday when US stocks jumped instead, on pace to bounce back from a brutal day of losses, as the risk of a government shutdown eased.

By the time market closed for the week:

• DJIA: +1.66% (+674.62 to 41,488.19).

• S&P 500: +2.13% (+117.42 to 5,638.94). Biggest one-day gains since 6 Nov 2024, day after US presidential election.

• Nasdaq: +2.61% (+451.08 to 17,754.09). Biggest one-day gains since 6 Nov 2024, day after US presidential election.

Just to note : Even with Friday's bounce, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched their 4th consecutive weekly losses, while the Dow posted a Friday-to-Friday dip.

Friday’s rebound catalyst ?

There were many opposing reasons provided in an attempt to quantify US market’s Friday rebound.

(1) Not catalyst led.

• Baird, Investment strategy analyst, Ross Mayfield said he did not see a catalyst that sparked the huge upside.

• Rather it’s the -10% decline from all-time highs (ATHs) that resulted in an oversold market, setting ideal conditions for a rally even when fundamental problems remained outstanding.

(2) No news is good news.

A lack of new tariffs headlines out of the White House, helped ease concerns around escalating tensions for the time being.

Investors might also be scooping up shares after Thu, 13 Mar 2025, stock market pullback.

(3) US Govt. shutdown averted.

Friday saw US Senate passed a Republican-led spending bill hours before a government shutdown, overcoming sharp Democratic opposition to the measure and sending it to President Donald Trump to be signed into law.

The “positive” news helped pushed stocks to a rally to wrap up a tough week.

Coming week reports.

US economic reports continue to be released as planned.

These are the ones I think US market will be most sensitive to for week beginning 17 Mar 2025.

• Mon, 17 Mar 2025 - US retail sales.

• Tue, 18 Mar 2025 - Import price index.

• Wed, 19 Mar 2025 - FOMC interest rate decision.*

• Thu, 20 Mar 2025 - US weekly jobless clams.

*- Fed’s economic decision.

Q4 2024 earnings report.

Like US economic reports, US listed stocks continued with their quarterly earnings results reporting.

• Tue, 18 Mar 2025 - $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$.

• Thu, 20 Mar 2025 - $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$

• Fri, 21 Mar 2025 - $Carnival(CCL)$

• Fri, 21 Mar 2025 - $NIO Inc.(NIO)$

NIO - Surprise surge.

On Wed, 12 Mar 2025, Chinese EV maker $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ surged +17% ahead of its Q4 2024 earnings report.

This rally came after Citi analysts adjusted the Chinese equities ratings to:

• “Overweight” on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI).

• “Neutral" on the Nasdaq index.

The upgrade was driven by (a) advancements in AI, (b) strong government support in China, and (c) attractive valuations in the region.

This positive sentiment lifted other Chinese EV makers as well:

• Li Auto (LI) rose +7% ahead of its Q4 earnings on 14 Mar 2025.

• XPeng (XPEV) gained +15% ahead of its Q4 earnings report on xx.

Catalyst for surge.

The broader Chinese EV market is showing impressive growth.

Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales jumped +94% in February 2025, boosting investor confidence.

Also, NIO delivered 13,192 EVs during the month, reflecting a +62.2% YoY increase.

NIO’s secret weapon.

Nio’s new mass-market brand, Onvo, is seeing strong early demand.

Additionally, the company recently opened pre-orders for the Firefly, a compact EV designed for city driving.

These innovations highlight Nio’s strategy to capture a larger share of the growing EV market in China and beyond.

NIO’s Q4 earnings forecasts.

Nio is set to release its Q4 2024 financial results on Fri, 21 Mar 2025.

The stock has fallen over -16% YoY due to weak EV demand and rising competition.

Loss per share.

Wall Street analysts expect NIO to report a loss of -$0.35 per share in Q4, lower than the loss of -$0.39 in Q4 2023. (see above)

However, Nio has missed earnings-per-share estimates in 6 of 9 past quarters, raising questions about its path to profitability.

Revenue.

According to Tipranks’ data, analysts expect revenues to come in at $2.81 billion, a +18.6% YoY gain.

NIO - Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on Wall Street consensus, NIO has a “Hold” rating overall:

• Buy - 1 rating.

• Hold - 4 ratings.

• Sell - 1 rating.

Price target.

• The average NIO stock price target of $5.25, that is +6.67% upside to Fri, 14 Mar 2025 closing price.

Is now the time to grab some NIO before it zooms to $5.25 or more …?

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• MU : A Volatile Market Profit Play ?

• BUD, PFE, DHR, MRK : Long Term Buys ?

• AVGO zooms to $100 ? Possible ?

• Do you think any of the three reasons or all of them, explained US market Friday’s rally ?

• Do you think now is really the time to load up on NIO for the +6.67% upside?

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerEvents