TSLA may fall on 02 Apr 2025, says Wall St.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ fell on Mon, 31 Mar 2025, just ahead of key sales data due later this week.
Shares of the EV maker closed down -1.7% at $259.16, while the S&P 500 gained +0.55% and the Dow also gained +1.00%, respectively.
The Downgrade.
It did not help that Stifel, Analyst, Stephen Gengaro:
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Trimmed Tesla target price to $455 from $474, while retaining a “Buy” rating.
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Expects Q1 deliveries around 353,000 based on (a) rollout of the new Model Y as well as (b) headwinds from the "anti-Elon Musk crowd”.
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Confirmed that “Democrats’ favorability rating about Tesla has plunged, creating near-term sales headwinds.
True that Musk, has fallen out of favour with Democrats partly because of :
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His close alignment with Trump.
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His position in the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). More importantly, it’s the chaos and disruptions he has brought unto a lot of people’s lives.
His appearance at a political rally in Wisconsin on Sun, 30 Mar 2025 - ahead of a state supreme court election only served to fan the flames of hate towards his engagement in money-politics.
How ? By giving away “two” - US$1 million cheque to voters who would speak out against activist judges—a move that was challenged in courts, a below the belt antics synonymous with Mr Musk.
Politics is part of the reason Tesla stock has had a wild, mostly downhill, ride since Trump’s 20 Jan 2025 inauguration.
However, just for this week, attention will turn away from Washington, D.C., and back to Austin, Texas, with Tesla’s Q1 2025 delivery results due out on Wed, 02 Apr 2025.
Q1 2025 Delivery.
Images of Tesla’s Q1 2025 company-compiled consensus were shared recently on “X” (formerly Twitter). see below
Tesla Q1 2025 EV Delivery estimates
As could be seen :
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Analysts are expecting the EV maker to post 377,592 deliveries for Q1 2025. It would be the lowest since Q3 2022.
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They also expect this number to be comprised of 351,893 Model 3/Model Y and 21,241 other models.
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The consensus also suggests that Tesla will see total deliveries of 1,851,001 EVs for FY 2025.
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The breakdown, analysts expect 1,693,397 units of the Model 3 & Y and 145,162 units of Tesla’s other models.
The Sources:
Tesla’s company-compiled consensus was based on estimates from 27 firms.
These include: Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, Evercore ISI, Barclays, PSC, Mizuho, BofA, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, Guggenheim, JPM, Redburn, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.
FactSet expectations
Separately, FactSet has its own set of data :
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It thinks Tesla has 407,900 EV units in the first quarter.
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Such a number is quite optimistic given that Tesla’s sales of its best-selling vehicle (Model Y), were throttled during the quarter due to the company’s transition to the new Model Y.
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Tesla’s Q1 deliveries could also trigger revisions to the company’s full-year delivery and earnings forecasts.
Earnings Forecast.
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FactSet data shows Q1 2025’s earnings per share to hit $0.48.
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This will be “down” from Q1 2024’s EPS of $0.57 and Q4 2024’s EPS of $0.74.
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For FY 2025, analysts are forecasting EPS to climb by +13% to $2.74.
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Again, it will be a drop from $3.31, before Q4 2024 earnings was release.
There is little chance delivery will be that good.
This is because Tesla’s EU registrations fell -49% YoY in 2025 - January & February.
According to CFRA Research, Analyst, Garrett Nelson:
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Tesla has “moderated” its initial forecast of a 20% -30% sales increase in 2025.
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However, he is looking at a -5% decline and could be more than that - instead.
Separately, Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors shared a not-so-pleasant estimate:
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In a 23 Mar 2025 post in “X”, he believes for 2025, Tesla will deliver less than 1.68 million EVs.
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That represents a -6% drop compared to the 1.79 million EVs delivered in 2024, which had been a slight decline vs. 2023.
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He believes Tesla is struggling to regain its momentum due to (1) shifting brand perception in Western markets and (2) increasing competition in China.
In the end, Wall Street estimates tend to grow stale, as not every analyst updates them at the same frequency.
The company-compiled consensus from dozens of brokers is closer to 378,000 vehicles.
That’s a better number to use when judging results.
Still, the most current estimates are in the 360,000 range, with analysts citing CEO Elon Musk’s politics and the Model Y changeover for their estimate reductions.
Musk’s actions in the Trump administration have investors worried he’s turning off Tesla’s traditional buyers, mainly politically left-leaning people looking to go green.
Tesla locations have faced politically motivated protests and even vandalism in recent weeks.
As for Model Y, Tesla updated its best-selling vehicle, and when a new version of any new car comes out there is typically an air pocket while production ramps up and buyers wait for the new model with additional bells and whistles.
Any number above 360,000 EVs should be good enough for Tesla.
That’s below the company-compiled consensus and is down compared with 2024, but investors need to consider the starting point.
Tesla stock has been hammered lately:
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It dropped -11.5% in March 2025.
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It fell -36% in February and March combined.
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That’s the second-worst two-month stretch for shares ever.
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Remember, Tesla stock dropped -46% in the last 2 months of 2022.
While Tesla stock rallied 6% this past week, snapping a 9-week losing streak, it was still down more than -8.0% for March 2025 (see above) after falling -28% in February 2025, that was the 2nd-worst month for Tesla stock ever.
Just for the record.
The worst month ever was December 2022, part of the worst two-month streak.
This was shortly after Musk wrapped up his purchase of social-media platform Twitter. The two eras have a common thread: Musk’s non-Tesla-related activities.
Back in 2022, investors worried about Musk’s time management and whether his frequent tweeting would injure Tesla’s brand.
In mitigation, Tesla responded to the Twitter drama by selling 1.8 million cars in 2023, up from 1.3 million in 2022.
Fast forward 3 years, investors are again worried that Musk’s political action with DOGE and the Trump administration will injure Tesla’s brand.
The concern is valid because for 2024, growth was flat with Tesla selling roughly 1.8 million vehicles again.
For 2025, selling more cars would go a long way to helping calm investors’ nerves.
My viewpoints: (mine only)
Why do I have a feeling that Wall Street is setting up for Tesla to fail for Q1 2025 by providing high delivery forecast ?
Everyone is familiar with the drill of what’s going to happen when actual-delivery falls short of forecast, no ?
The greater the difference between actuals and forecast, the greater will be the “fall”.
To be fair, Tesla’s EV delivery is not equivalent to its revenue earned.
This is because Tesla still have ‘sidelines’ revenue from (a) Energy generation and storage and (b) Services & other. Their contributions towards Tesla’s topline has been growing steadily overtime.
Should we hope for a weak delivery for stock price to dip further before swooping in for the kill ? That’s a plan ! Of course this is assumed that Tesla will recover in time to come.
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Do you think Tesla’ EV delivery for Q1 2025 will disappoint ?
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Do you think Tesla stock price will fall further on the first week of April 2025 ? I really do !
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Last two days it’s been defying gravity. But this probably won’t last unless Musk’s comes up with another electrifying story. Maybe about Pete Hegseth announcing on Signal that Tesla’s robots will replace all military personnels in the Us.