East Rising, West Declining? How Did Buffett Warn of Trade Deficits in US?

Recently, more voices have discussed the idea of “East rising, West declining.”

Today, People's Bank of China (PBoC) unveiled 10 comprehensive monetary policy measures across three categories. China stocks opened high and then closed down.

  • Quantitative measures: Includes actions like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to increase medium- to long-term liquidity and ensure abundant market liquidity.

  • Price-based measures: Involves lowering key policy interest rates, reducing rates on structural monetary tools, and cutting public housing fund loan rates.

  • Structural tools: Introducing and strengthening targeted monetary tools to support innovation in science and technology, boost consumption, and expand inclusive finance.

In 2003, Warren Buffett told a story about two fictional islands: “Squanderville” and “Thriftville.” $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$

Thriftville worked hard, exported food to Squanderville, and in return received Squanderville’s bonds.

Over time, Thriftville accumulated so much debt that it eventually stopped holding bonds and started acquiring land — shifting economic sovereignty without a war, simply through purchases. Buffett used this story to warn about the dangers of persistent U.S. trade deficits.

Back in 2003, there was no real “Thriftville.” But listening to this story again in 2025, should we start taking the “East rising, West declining” narrative more seriously?

If the shift from West to East is real, then isn't the key question when it will happen?

How do you view this?

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# HKD Strengthens: Can China Stocks' Rally Continue?

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  • MHh
    ·2025-05-07
    TOP
    Trumps knows the trade deficits and so by implementing tariffs, he hopes to create a new global order. He is not that crazy that many think he is. The real dealbreaker is whether this will pull through. He probably never expect China to retaliate, unlike in his first term as president. He doesn’t want a trade war where his own economy will suffer. He just wants to force parties to negotiate with him. I think the shift from West to east will definitely happen, but not in the next 5 or even 10 years. As long as the other countries cooperate with the US and US has a greater number of world on its side as it seems to be likely the case with many countries striking deals with it, and these countries trade more with the US than China, and the USD remains the preferred reserve currency, this shift won’t happen yet. China stocks will rally especially if talks with trump is successful but I believe it wil be short-lived as investors tend to be less confident in the Chinese market than the US.
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  • Mrzorro
    ·2025-05-07
    TOP
    The shift from West to East may happen one day, but I don't think it will come so fast, at least a few more years to go. China stocks may be a good investment, but not for me at the moment.
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    • koolgal
      Thanks for sharing your valuable insights 😍😍😍
      2025-05-08
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  • SG 88
    ·2025-05-08
    TOP
    特朗普清楚地表明,失败的结局将是美国及其公民。
    他们是唯一会承担关税成本的人,而不是中国,不是加拿大,也不是其他国家。
    特朗普只认为他作为美国总统的职位是重中之重。
    想象一下这样一个世界,每个美国公民都买不到他们想要的东西,而只能买到他们能负担得起的东西?
    通货膨胀会螺旋式上升,商品会变得可怕和昂贵,美国只能在自己的州内进行贸易?
    从经济学和社会学的角度来看,这都是残酷的事实。
    世界上没有人会从贸易战中受益,更不用说任何战争了。
    独裁不会进行战斗,它只会恶化国家间的双边关系,只会带来全球衰退。
    @Blinkfans @koolgal @MillionaireTiger @JC888 @BillionaireN
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    • koolgal
      感谢您分享您的宝贵见解🥰🥰🥰
      2025-05-08
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  • Zarkness
    ·2025-05-08
    TOP
    It’s only a bargaining chip , the real move is not in the creating of jobs , it’s the money that count ! Don’t believe ? If you can really find the data before trade war and during trade war and after trade deals, u will see where the money goes to!! Just check trump and associated and see what’s happening to their accts !!
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    • Zarkness
      It’s your good teaching 🥰🥰🥰
      2025-05-08
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    • koolgal
      Thanks for sharing your valuable insights 😍😍😍
      2025-05-08
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  • 1PC
    ·2025-05-07
    TOP
    if the shift from West to East were to happen and When [Thinking]....let's seek the magic crystal 🔮.... [Thinking] I see .... 🤔....some signs appearing..... Ah Ha.... by the end of the Next 🐉🐲 cycle [Smart]..... in the meantime, shift to the HK markets when opportunities arises 🙏
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    • koolgal
      I would like to have the magic crystal please 🥰🥰🥰
      2025-05-08
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  • koolgal
    ·2025-05-08
    🌟🌟🌟港元走强对该地区来说似乎是一个积极的信号,既是资本流动恢复的标志,也是投资者对亚洲(尤其是中国市场)更广泛信心的指标。

    在促增长政策、创新驱动型行业和资本流动增加的支持背景下,我相信中国股市有可能继续上涨。

    然而,重要的是要保持警惕全球经济的不确定性以及市场从疲软时期过渡到疲软时期的内在风险乐观.

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  • vuvence IX
    ·2025-05-09
    The west has been around for a very long time, eg: Greeks & Romans. The west, although geographic is more of a blueprint for co-existence. If the current manifestation of the west is in decline, why is the rest of the world falling over each other to immigrate to the following countries
    USA
    Australia
    UK
    Canada
    New Zealand

    why those countries???

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  • vuvence IX
    ·2025-05-09
    The West is in decline has been around for years, however why is the rest of the world falling over itself to immigrate to the following countries.
    USA
    UK
    Australia
    Canada
    New Zealand

    Why???

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  • GoodLife99
    ·2025-05-08
    Talks of a U.S. recession have been ongoing for quite some time. While many hope it won’t happen, the risk still looms—especially if the planned tariffs go into effect. That could be one reason why Warren Buffett is holding onto such a large amount of cash—possibly preparing for a market downturn or better investment opportunities.

    It’s no surprise that Eastern economies are starting to rise, even if only modestly for now. Their momentum may strengthen in the near term, though some doubts remain.

    U.S. inflation could spike again, which might lead people to reconsider non-essential spending—like vacations—as daily costs continue to climb.

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  • Success88
    ·2025-05-08
    中国和美国都是大国,人口众多。这种转变总有一天会到来,所以从西方到东方的转变并不奇怪。作为投资者,我们需要关注好公司并投资它们。
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  • Star in the Sky
    ·2025-05-08
    nothing much will happen.. markets down markets up... we will used to it when it happens
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  • WanEH
    ·2025-05-07
    I think those technology related company may continue to rise up. can buy and hold.
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  • ECLC
    ·2025-05-08
    Anything is possible when the world spins.
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  • AliceSam
    ·2025-05-07
    期待后续
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  • TheStrategist
    ·2025-05-07
    China vs USA
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