NVDA, the comeback kid in June 2025 ?
What was supposed to be a rally to round off May 2025 on a high, was not meant to be.
On Fri, 30 May 2025 - US stocks / market end mixed as investors digest more tariffs turmoil in the face of a cooling inflation report.
To be fair, all 3 major benchmarks booked both weekly and monthly gains, rounding off a historically strong May performance: albeit not stronger unfortunately.
When trading ended on 30 May 2025:
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DJIA: +0.13% (+54.34 TO 42,270.07). For the month, it was up +2.31%.
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S&P 500: -0.01% (-0.48 TO 5,911.69). For the month, it was up +3.96%.
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Nasdaq: -0.32% (-62.10 to 19,113.77). For the month, it was up +6.32%.
Should Be A Stronger Closing.
Reason why US market should have closed stronger, on a higher note is because of April’s cooling inflation report.
Friday saw the Fed’s preferred inflation report the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) released, ahead of Friday’s trading. (see below)
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Headline inflation increased just 0.1% for the month, putting annual inflation at 2.1% - the lowest in 2025 YTD.
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Core inflation also was at 0.1% for the month but was higher on an annual level at 2.5%.
On a “normal” day, US market would rally with a cooling set of inflation numbers out.
This time, market began to lose steam intraday.
It attempted to recover with the Dow managing to close marginally higher while both S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed a whisker lower than Thursday.
Personal Spending Report Did It.
The media has “sort of” hinted that it was consumer spending - the Personal Spending report for April 2025, that did the US market in. (see above)
Personal spending fell -71.43% to April’s very modest 0.2% from March’s 0.7%, matching economists’ forecast polled by The Wall Street Journal.
Americans became more cautious spenders in April after the Trump administration jacked up US tariffs and caused US stock market to plunge.
Most Americans have also spent in advance (March 2025), ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement. This could be inferred in the chart above as well.
With consumer spending being the main engine of US economy, accounting for 70% of all activity, all eyes should be on this report again, come end June 2025.
What’s Instore This June ?
US Q1 2025 earnings season for S&P 500 companies is drawing to a close soon:
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As of 30 May 2025, 98% of S&P 500 companies have reported their first-quarter results.
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This leaves 10 companies (2%) left to report.
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So far, 78% of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten their earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates, that is above the 5-year average.
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4% have reported EPS in line with estimates, and 18% have missed expectations.
Overall trend is positive, with a strong majority reporting gains, although some sectors have faced downward earnings estimate revisions for next quarter.
Companies reporting their earnings:
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Tue, 03 Jun 2025 - $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$.
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Tue, 03 Jun 2025 - $NIO Inc.(NIO)$.
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Thu, 05 Jun 2025 - $Broadcom(AVGO)$
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Thu, 05 Jun 2025 - Lululemon athletica inc. (LULU).
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Thu, 05 Jun 2025 - $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$.
US Economic Reports.
It is a new month and a whole new set of US economic reports is set to be released.
This week, it will be:
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Mon, 02 Jun 2025 - ISM Manufacturing.
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Tue, 03 Jun 2025 - Jobs Opening and Labour Turnover surveys.
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Wed, 04 Jun 2025 - ADP Employment.
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Wed, 04 Jun 2025 - Fed Beige Book.
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Thu, 05 Jun 2025 - US Weekly Jobless claims.
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Fri, 06 Jun 2025 - US Non-farm payroll.
Top 3 Sectors in June.
According to Charles Schwab, the top 3 performing sectors in June 2025 will be:
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Information Technology.
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Financials.
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Communication Services.
Information Technology sector is poised to continue performing well.
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This sector maintains the highest weighting of over 30% in the S&P 500.
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It has delivered strong trailing 12-month performance of +17.2%, indicating ongoing momentum.
Financials.
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Finance sector maintains the 2nd highest weighting of over 14% in the S&P 500.
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It has delivered very strong trailing 12-month performance of +25.1%, indicating ongoing momentum.
Communication Services.
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This sector maintains the fifth highest weighting of over 9.3% in the S&P 500.
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It has delivered strong trailing 12-month performance of +19.0%, indicating ongoing momentum.
Top Stock.
The top tech stock going into June 2025 is $NVIDIA(NVDA)$.
For the month of May 2025, NVDA has a +18.2% gain, edging it closer to its peak of $149.43 attained on 06 Jan 2025.
More importantly:
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It is one of the main players in the AI arena.
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Nvidia's GPUs are the most commonly used computing units for AI.
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GPU demand continues to grow as various AI hyperscalers have announced record-breaking capital expenditures (CAPEX), to build data centers and filling them with Nvidia’s GPUs.
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It is this demand that enabled Nvidia to hold more than 90% market share in data center GPU market.
Although Nvidia is set to lose access to the Chinese market, due to US government’s export curb, the Middle East door is looking to flip open in mitigation.
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Do you think US’s June 2025 economic reports will lift US market higher ?
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Do you think Nvidia will continue to rise in June 2025 ?
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NVDA long and strong