To The Moon

Everyone’s obsessed with Labubu, and Pop Mart’s cashing in big time. While other hotshot consumer stocks on the Hong Kong exchange—like bubble tea darling Nayuki or fitness app Keep—shot up to new highs only to stumble back down, Pop Mart’s holding strong. Its blind-box empire, led by the mischievous Labubu and backed by rising stars like Crybaby, Skullpanda, and Hirono, has turned toys into a goldmine. But when every influencer, investor, and auntie on WeChat is chasing the same trend, the old Wall Street adage kicks in: “When everyone’s in, it’s time to get out.” So, is Pop Mart’s bubble primed to burst, or does its IP wizardry still have legs? Let’s break it down.

The Labubu Effect: Hype Machine in Overdrive

Labubu isn’t just a toy—it’s a cultural juggernaut. From Thai princesses parading it as a national treasure to Rihanna and Lisa from BLACKPINK showing off their collections, this pointy-eared gremlin has gone viral. Pop Mart’s blind-box gimmick—where you don’t know which figure you’ll get—has turned buying into a dopamine-fueled lottery. Resale prices on platforms like QD Trendy Toy Tribe are bonkers, with rare Labubus hitting $2,500 a pop. Social media’s ablaze: “Labubu’s my retirement plan!” one X user bragged, while another flaunted a $1,800 haul.

Pop Mart’s stock has ridden this wave like a champ, climbing over 350% since last year and shrugging off pullbacks that tripped up peers. Its market cap’s ballooned to HK$315 billion ($40.3 billion), dwarfing Nayuki’s $2 billion fade-out. The company’s not resting on Labubu’s laurels either—new IPs like Crybaby (teary-eyed and adorable) and Skullpanda (edgy and punk) are racking up fans fast. In Q1 2025, revenue soared 168%, with overseas sales spiking nearly 500%. This isn’t a one-hit wonder; it’s a hit factory.

Why Pop Mart Might Keep Winning

Pop Mart’s secret sauce? It’s not just selling toys—it’s selling hype. The company’s mastered the art of IP incubation, churning out characters that tap into the “kidult” psyche—adults who’ll drop serious cash on nostalgia and clout. Labubu’s 3 billion yuan haul last year was just the start; Crybaby and Hirono are already crossing the 100-million-yuan mark each. Pop Mart’s betting big on global domination too, with Labubu-themed stores popping up from Singapore to Sydney. Its Bangkok flagship pulled in $1.5 million on day one, and the Pop Mart app briefly topped U.S. charts.

The numbers back the swagger. Revenue doubled to 13.5 billion yuan ($1.9 billion) last year, and net profit’s up 200% since 2023. Unlike Nayuki, which overexpanded and crashed, Pop Mart’s diversifying smartly—think Labubu jewelry, Skullpanda hoodies, even a Crybaby collab with a coffee chain. Analysts like Goldman Sachs are drooling, slapping a $260 target on the stock, implying 25% upside. If Pop Mart keeps pumping out IPs that stick, this could be Hasbro 2.0 with a Chinese twist.

The Bubble Warning Lights

But let’s not get too cozy. When everyone’s piling into the same trade—grandmas included—it’s usually a sign the party’s ending. Pop Mart’s P/E ratio’s at a sky-high 82x, while Nayuki’s back at 20x and Keep’s barely breaking even. That’s a valuation screaming “overbought,” especially when resale prices for Labubu are dipping—some figures that once fetched $2,000 are now barely above $200 on Xianyu. Fads fade, and toys are the ultimate fad fodder.

Competition’s heating up too. Funko’s eyeing China’s blind-box boom, and local players like 52Toys are nipping at Pop Mart’s heels. Knockoffs are everywhere—Southeast Asia’s drowning in fake Labubus, and Pop Mart’s anti-counterfeit tech can’t keep up. If Crybaby or Hirono flop, or if Labubu loses its cool factor, sales could tank fast. One analyst quipped, “Pop Mart’s one bad IP away from a 50% drop.”

Show Me the Money: Pop Mart vs. the Pack

Here’s how Pop Mart stacks up against other consumer names in Hong Kong:

Pop Mart’s growth is unmatched, but its peers’ pullbacks hint at what happens when hype meets reality. Can it keep the streak alive?

Stock Surge: A Picture Worth a Thousand Trades

Check out Pop Mart’s stock run over the past year—resilient as hell while others faltered:

Pop or Prosper? The Million-Dollar Question

So, bubble or breakout? Pop Mart’s got the IP chops to keep climbing—Labubu’s a monster hit, and Crybaby’s got legs. Its overseas push could double revenue again if it plays its cards right. But that 82x P/E and softening resale market are glaring warning signs. When Nayuki and Keep stumbled, they fell hard—Pop Mart’s not immune.

Here’s the play: if you’re holding, take some profits at $265; if you’re eyeing an entry, wait for a dip to $210. The stock’s defied gravity so far, but gravity’s undefeated. Pop Mart’s IP game is strong, but no one’s invincible when the crowd’s this loud. What’s your take—ride the wave or jump ship? Drop it in the comments!

📢 Like, repost, and follow for daily updates on market trends and stock insights.

📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

📌@Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerEvents @TigerWire