TSLA - Sell Before Robotaxi launch or Hold ?
Failure To Launch.
On 28 May 2025, Bloomberg reported that $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ will be launching its robotaxi on 12 June 2025, citing a person familiar with the matter. (see below)
On 11 Jun 2025, with one day to go before the big reveal, Mr CEO finally confirmed the “revised” launch to be 22 Jun 2025. (see below)
Is it any wonder that Tesla has once again push back its launch date ? After all, it is not the first Tesla delayed its product launch, neither will it be its last.
It just does not have a good track record when it comes to schedule and punctuality.
Robotaxi - Autonomous Driving?
I think $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ analyst knows for real, the $400 takeoff share price and long term $800 price target are pure wish list items.
Reason being - currently, Tesla’s consumer vehicles (eg Model Y) use the “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) software, is generally considered Level 2 autonomy, out of a total 6 levels.
This means a Tesla EV or for that matter Robotaxi can assist with (a) steering, (b) acceleration, and (c) braking, but the driver must (1) remain attentive and (2) always be ready to take control at all times.
Does this level of self-driving “capability” worth the $400 price target ?
If it does, then $Alphabet(GOOG)$’s Waymo is a gold mine based on the number of self-driving services it is providing daily across several US states.
Be All and End All?
If only life is so straight forward for Tesla, a launch of its Robotaxi (at level 2 driving autonomy), with steering wheels vs a wheel-less Robotaxi demo back in October 2024 and its stock price will zoom.
Of course, punters might seize the moment to drive up its stock price come 22 Jun 2025.
However, when the dust settles and it is time to report its Q2 2025 earnings, reality will take precedence.
Investors who have been keeping abreast with Tesla’s falling EV sales in US, Europe and even China (its once strong foothold), will know that sales have grown progressively worse since Q1 2025. (see below)
To keep the faith or exit while investor is still ahead, lies squarely with investors’ belief on whether miracles do happen.
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