$Xiaomi Corp.(XIACY)$ $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ πβ‘π From Smartphones to Supercars, Xiaomi Accelerates Toward the Two Hundred Billion Milestone πβ‘π
They laughed when Xiaomi launched a car, they are not laughing now.
ADR shares XIACY are up 161 % year over year versus 9 % for Apple.
Five-year gain, Xiaomi 328 %, Apple 153 %.
Coatueβs 2030 Fantastic 40 list ranks Xiaomi 23rd, above Salesforce, Spotify, Uber, and GE, projecting a 425 billion USD market cap.
This is not a side hustle, it is a takeover bid.
4,800 locked deposits every minute, 289,000 in the first hour.
The SU7 and YU7 have made Xiaomi the fastest-selling EV brand in China.
Valuation now edges toward 200 billion USD.
π Performance Snapshot
β’ HK 01810 up 257.71 % in twelve months, XIACY up 161.64 %
β’ Bloomberg Intelligence expects EV break-even in Q4 2025, operating profit per vehicle near Β₯5,000
βοΈ Fundamental Engine
β’ IoT and ads flywheel runs near 65 % margin
β’ FY 2024 margins: Smart EV 18.5 %, Group 20.9 %, Smartphone 12.6 %
β’ Two-model strategy, SU7 and YU7, shares more than 90 % of parts, cutting unit cost
π Technical Pulse
β’ Moving averages: MA5 HK$53,800, MA10 HK$52,510, MA20 HK$50,970, MA30 HK$45,630
β’ RSI-6 at 75, MACD positive since April, volume confirms breakout
π Demand Shock
β’ 200,000 orders in three minutes
β’ 289,000 orders in one hour
β’ More than 240,000 locked deposits in 18 hours
Citigroup gave under a 6 % chance of 250,000 in a day, Xiaomi cleared it in under an hour
π οΈ Competitive Edge
Range 760 km, Model Y 719 km
Acceleration 3.23 s, Model Y 4.3 s
Charging 800 V, Tesla 400 V
Thor chip, LiDAR, 11 HD cameras, 12 ultrasonics standard
Cabin 43-inch HUD, Dolby Atmos, rear massage seats, smart fridge
Entry price Β₯253,500, about Β₯10,000 below Model Y
ποΈ Scaling and Margins
β’ Phase 2 factory online, Phase 3 lifts capacity to 400,000 units
β’ Break-even forecast Q4 2025, profit per EV about Β₯5,000
π‘ Credit Catalyst
β’ Fitch and Moodyβs hold positive outlooks, upgrade to BBB+ / Baa1 likely if EV break-even arrives in 2025
β’ Dollar-bond spread tightest among BBB tech peers
β’ Net cash 5.5 billion USD, leverage projected below 0.7 Γ
π° Institutional Flow
HK$3.25 billion turnover on breakout sessions, short interest under 1 %
Coatue, Fidelity, and T. Rowe Price reported buyers
π Sell-Side Heat Map
Highest target HK$85, average HK$69, low HK$33.90
XIACY targets: average 37.50 USD, high 47.68 USD, low 3.07 USD
Ratings 87 % Bullish, 10 % Neutral, 3 % Bearish
β οΈ Risk Matrix
Regulatory: stricter ADAS and door-handle tests after the SU7 fatality
Competition: Tesla or XPeng may trim Model Y or G7 pricing
Scaling: battery and SiC inverter supply must keep pace with Phase 3 output
Macro: export tariffs could delay overseas expansion
π Forward Scenarios
Bull 45 %, 420,000 deliveries, 22 % margin, HK$90, XIACY 58 USD
Base 40 %, 350,000 deliveries, 19 % margin, HK$74, XIACY 45 USD
Bear 15 %, 300,000 deliveries, 14 % margin, HK$53, XIACY 34 USD
π Watchlist
β’ weekly YU7 delivery times on Xiaomi app
β’ Beijing Phase 3 milestones
β’ Tesla China pricing moves
β’ rating-agency updates on EV margin progress
β’ export filings for ASEAN and Gulf markets
π§ Contrarian Insight
Vertical integration trims about 15 % off unit cost versus peers, letting Xiaomi under-price while targeting 20 % EV margins. BYD owns scale, Huawei owns software, Xiaomi controls both.
π― Actionable Playbook
Long: accumulate HK$56β57 or ADR 36β37 USD, hold for rating-upgrade catalyst
Swing: buy on daily close above HK$62 or 40.50 USD, trail the 10-day EMA
Options: buy September HK$65 call, sell HK$75 call, aggressive traders may write August HK$50 put
π Conclusion
Xiaomi built the hardware for hundreds of millions, now it is building the horsepower to move them. Coatue backs a 425 billion USD future while rating agencies line up potential upgrades. Cost advantage, ecosystem lock-in, and EV margin expansion set the stage. When 4,800 deposits a minute hit the ledger, the scoreboard flips fast.
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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC πππππ
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- Hen SoloΒ·06-28TOPπππXiaomiβs EV margin projections and Fitch-Moodyβs triggers really show how tight their cost model is. You laid that out better than any broker note Iβve read on $XIACY. If they hit break-even by Q4 like Bloomberg suggests, the re-rating could be huge.5Report
- Cool Cat WinstonΒ·06-28TOPπππ§ That XiaomiβApple performance spread you pulled really hit me. Iβve always followed $AAPL like a hawk, but XIACYβs chart makes me question where the real compounding is happening. Clean comparison, sharp thesis, and that Coatue signal? Thatβs serious credibility ππ€©π»4Report
- QueengirlypopsΒ·06-28TOPπ£π«‘4,800 deposits a minute and a 760 km range on YU7, thatβs insane. $TSLAβs gotta feel the heat. Mix in a 20% EV margin target and Fitch upgrade chatter and Iβm smashing follow quicker than the order counter.3Report
- Kiwi TigressΒ·06-28TOPπ€©πβ¨π₯π€―Coatue putting $XIACY at #23 ahead of $CRM and $UBER is wild. Up 161% y/y and still priced like a mid-cap. If they land break-even by Q4 25 and snag that BBB+ tag this chart could pull a mini $NVDA move πβ2Report
- Mortimer ArthurΒ·07-06Xiaomi is a nascent Apple in the making. Their maiden entry into EV's (with such design style and confidence) speaks volumes of mgmt quality. Been a sh/r for two years and already a 4XLikeReport
- JNK14454Β·06-29Great article, would you like to share it?1Report