To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill just bulldozed its way through Congress and the market is already sorting out the winners from the losers.  With USD 4.5 trillion in tax cuts, USD 350 billion in defense spending and deep cuts to Medicaid and green energy, this bill is a fiscal adrenaline shot with a long term hangover.

It is a classic Trump cocktail - short term stimulus, bigger long term debt and a sharp ideological tilt.  But for investors, the message is clear - some sectors are about to feast while others are possibly headed for famine.

Here are 2 stocks poised to soar and 2 that could get steamrolled. 

Winners 🏆🏆🏆

Lockheed Martin $Lockheed Martin(LMT)$ 

Why it wins -  The bill includes a staggering USD 150 billion boost to defense spending, the largest peacetime increase in decades.  Lockheed with its USD 176 billion order backlog and global demand for F35 fighter pilot jets  and hypersonic weapon systems, is perfectly positioned.

What's next - Expect multi year contract wins, margin expansion and a valuation rerating.  Lockheed Martin is trading at just 14.5 times projected 2027 earnings, well below historical averages.

The defense giant's competitive moat is huge.   With defense budgets set to explode, Lockheed 's valuation discount won't last.  That is why this stock is a Buy. 

Investor takeaway - this is fiscal tailwind.  Defense is no longer just a geopolitical hedge,   it is now a growth engine.

Amazon $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 

Why it wins -  The bill' s tax breaks on tips and overtime pay for workers might seem disconnected from Amazon.  However these tax breaks directly boost discretionary spending for millions of service and hourly workers.  These workers are Amazon's core customer base.  Combined with extended 2017 tax cuts and increased child tax credits, these provisions inject billions into consumer wallets.

Amazon's competitive advantages multiply these tailwinds.  Its 19% advertising revenue growth to USD 13.9 billion in Q1 2025 demonstrates pricing power that is hard for its competitors to match. 

Amazon Web Services (AWS) generated USD 29.3 billion in quarterly revenue with huge margins, providing the cash flow to dominate retail through any economic cycle.

Despite tariff concerns, CEO Andy Jassy said that Amazon has not seen any slowing of demand for its products.

What's next -  With its logistics moat and Amazon Prime ecosystem, Amazon is set to capture a disproportionate share of the spending surge. 

Investor takeaway - Amazon thrives when wallets open.  This bill has just handed consumers a reason to click "Buy Now". 

Losers 

Him & Hers Health 

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$  

Why it loses - The bill slashes USD 930 billion from Medicaid and imposes stricter eligibility and work requirements.  That is a direct hit to Hims' core demographics and affect young and lower income Americans who rely on affordable telehealth services. 

What's next - Slower user growth, rising acquisition costs and pressure on margins as the company competes for a shrinking pool of discretionary healthcare spenders. 

Investor takeaway - Hims has built a sleek, scalable model but this bill undercuts the very infrastructure that supports it.  Without policy tailwinds, growth could stall. 

First Solar (FSLR) 

Why it loses -  the bill repeals most clean energy tax credits, including the 30% Investment Tax Credit for solar.  That is a direct blow to$First Solar(FSLR)$  project pipeline and long term economics. 

What's next - Expect margin compression, project delays and a potential pullback in ESG driven capital inflows. 

Investor takeaway - The clean energy trade has just hit a political wall.  FSLR maybe a long term winner but short term turbulence is inevitable. 

Concluding Thoughts - Follow the Fiscal Flow 

Trump's Big Beautiful Bill is a political test but for saavy investors, it is a road map.  It tells us where the money is going, who is getting squeezed and what narratives are going to dominate the second half of 2025.

This is not about ideology.  It is about capital allocation.  Right now, the capital is flowing towards Defense, Consumer Giants and Industrial sectors while draining from Clean renewable energy and digital health. 

So it pays to watch the winners, hedge the losers and stay nimble. 

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