To The Moon

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $GRANITESHARES 2X LONG AMD DAILY ETF(AMDL)$ 🚨🔥🧠 AMD’s Full-Stack Fight for AI Supremacy: The $3.9B Climb, CUDA Wars, and the Call Surge That’s Telling a Bigger Story 🧠🔥🚨

$AMD is no longer chasing, it’s converging. With the MI355X now outperforming Nvidia’s Blackwell in 9 out of 10 key metrics, the hardware parity debate is over. CUDA remains Nvidia’s strongest moat, but AMD’s ROCm stack is rapidly closing the gap. Once software parity hits, valuation gravity could snap violently upwards.

Options markets are sniffing it out. On 11Jul25, 150C 07/18 calls exploded with over 38K volume and a net call premium of $9.8M. A bullish tilt like this near short-dated expiry, layered on top of strong spot strength, is rarely noise. It’s informed conviction.

Technicals support the thesis. Weekly candles have reclaimed the 30-week MA with volume confirmation. RSI is at 75.8, an overbought read, yes, but also a momentum confirmation signal in trending environments. Relative strength versus $SPX500 just broke a year-long downtrend. In plain terms: AMD’s time may be now.

🧠 The Quiet Revolution: From CPU Challenger to AI Architect

In just 2.5 years, AMD’s data center revenue has surged nearly 5x, from $0.8B in Q2 2022 to $3.9B in Q4 2024. This isn’t luck. It’s the compounding result of a methodical, strategic expansion across the full AI compute stack:

• CPUs (EPYC, Ryzen)

• GPUs (MI300, MI355X, MI400)

• FPGAs (via Xilinx)

• DPUs (via Pensando)

• Full systems (ZT Systems)

• AI software (ROCm)

The Xilinx acquisition was a masterstroke. It extended AMD’s TAM into embedded AI, edge computing, and ultra-low-latency inference — niches where Nvidia’s GPU-centric strategy faces limits.

Even more compelling? AMD developed the MI400 series in collaboration with OpenAI. Sam Altman’s team offered direct feedback, fine-tuning the design for memory bandwidth, scale, and real-world training throughput. The result: Helios — a full-rack AI solution housing 72 MI400 GPUs with blistering 260 TB/s scale-up bandwidth and 1.4 PB/s memory flow.

This isn’t about competing anymore. It’s about displacing.

📊 TAM Explosion Meets Efficiency Story

Lisa Su isn’t shy: she expects the AI accelerator market to exceed $500B by 2028, growing over 60% CAGR. Inference, not training, will dominate this next leg. That plays straight into AMD’s hand.

The MI355X claims to deliver 40% more tokens per dollar compared to Nvidia’s B200. That’s not just a marketing number. It’s a capex efficiency advantage that cloud hyperscalers care deeply about. Lower power usage, higher density, and superior memory scaling give AMD real differentiation when scale hits hyperscale.

🟢 Market Share: The Stealth Invasion

Remember when AMD had 2% of the server CPU market in 2018? It now commands 40%. That’s an 18x gain in under 7 years. The same playbook,  aggressive product cadence, pricing discipline, software catch-up, is now being applied to the AI GPU arena.

While Nvidia captures headlines, AMD captures market share.

🟨 Valuation Reset Incoming?

AMD trades at a forward P/E of 37.67 and a price/sales ratio of 8.58. Nvidia, by contrast, commands a P/S of over 20. With $AMD’s data center business growing 57% YoY and the broader AI TAM expanding at ~60% per year, this discount won’t hold indefinitely.

The question isn’t whether AMD is undervalued; it’s how long the market will take to catch up.

💡 What to Watch

1. ROCm 7 adoption curve across AI labs and open-source communities

2. Earnings on 05Aug25 for acceleration signs in data center and MI400 demand

3. Short-dated call flows, continued targeting of $150–$160 levels could precede a volatility expansion

🔮 Forward Scenarios

📈 Bull Case (65% probability):

Break above $150 confirms multi-month reversal structure, targets $172 then $187. AI narrative rotation and software parity help re-rate AMD toward a $350B–$500B valuation range by mid-2026.

📉 Bear Case (35% probability):

CUDA moat proves stickier than expected, ROCm adoption lags, and margin pressure caps upside. Price chops between $125–$145 ahead of further catalysts.

💡 Contrarian Insight

Wall Street still sees AMD as a cheaper $NVDA. That’s old thinking. AMD has shifted from being an alt-GPU provider to becoming a sovereign compute solution provider. Its AI stack is broader. Its economics are sharper. And its TAM expansion is just beginning.

This isn’t the beta play anymore. This is the coiled spring.

📍Conclusion

The gap between perception and execution has rarely been wider. $AMD isn’t behind anymore. It’s parallel. And in some metrics, it’s already ahead.

ROCm is the last domino. When it falls, the rerating could be violent.

From hardware parity to system superiority, from inference economics to rack-scale dominance, this is the kind of asymmetric opportunity the market eventually regrets ignoring.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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