To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ 🚨🇺🇸📉 Powell’s Swan Song? Fed Under Fire, Tariffs Surge, and $SPY Guts Show Put-Heavy Panic 📉🇺🇸🚨

The macro chessboard just flipped!

On 11Jul25, markets digested what might be the most chaotic 24 hours in Powell’s tenure: a potential resignation by the Fed Chair himself, blistering critiques from inside and outside the government, a tariff-triggered inflation spiral, and a bond market flashing red.

This isn’t a rate cut story anymore; this is institutional mayhem.

🏛️ Powell’s Palace and the Billion-Dollar Beehive

The Office of Management and Budget dropped a bombshell letter to Chairman Powell, accusing him of blowing $2.5 billion on “palatial” renovations to Fed HQ. Terrace gardens, VIP elevators, premium marble, and rooftop water features are all included, while the cost per square foot has soared to $1,923, nearly double the average for restoring historic federal buildings.

By comparison, the Palace of Versailles would’ve cost $3 billion in today’s dollars. Powell’s Fed? Still running a deficit since FY23 and overspending on real estate during a housing affordability crisis.

🗣 “If Versailles had a Bloomberg Terminal…”

Trump isn’t mincing words. He’s demanded Powell “resign in disgrace immediately” and called for Congress to investigate what he calls a national economic failure.

Bernie Moreno piled on: “One man, Jerome Powell,  is costing this country $400 billion a year. Homeowners, businesses, and credit card holders are all suffering because he has a personal beef with the president. He’s a partisan. This guy needs to go.”

💬 William Pulte (Chair, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac): “If Powell resigns, the economy will boom.”

That’s not noise. Fannie and Freddie underpin $8.5 trillion in U.S. housing finance. His statement implies a dramatic shift in rate expectations and policy flexibility if Powell exits.

📉 Goolsbee Throws Cold Water: 🇨🇦🇧🇷 Tariffs Delay Cuts

Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee made it clear: Trump’s 35% tariff on Canada and 50% on Brazil (effective 01Aug25) is throwing dirt back in the air. CPI rose 2.3% in May, nearing target, but new price pressures from trade are clouding the inflation outlook and making rate cuts harder to justify.

So even if Powell quits, markets won’t get their easy money fix so fast.

🧾 Treasury Surplus, But At What Cost?

CNBC reports a surprise surplus in June, helped by rising tariff receipts. But the bond market didn’t cheer. $TLT hit lows and stayed there all session, reflecting fears that tightening from trade taxes may choke growth rather than support it.

💥 Options Flow: Big Money Is Betting Against $SPY

$SPY closed at $6,265.87, down -0.23%, but under the surface:

💰 $4.7M swept into $575 Puts (17Dec27)

💰 $3.4M into $600 Puts (19Dec25)

💰 $2.4M into $630 Puts (19Dec25)

💰 $2M into $630 Puts (again)

💰 $1.8M into $540 Puts (17Oct25)

💰 $2M into $592 Puts (15Aug25)

💰 $1.4M into $595 Puts (15Aug25)

💰 $2.3M into $595 Puts (18Sep26)

🔍 Repeated tape support levels:

$624.30, $623.65, $623.42, $623.71, $623.93, $623.17, $622.69, $622.64, $622.82

🧠 Key watch: $622.50. A break here opens the trapdoor.

The $SPX weekly chart confirms a rejection at 6,290.22, a clean channel top. RSI(6) is stretched at 75.24. If we unwind from here, the downside could accelerate quickly.

💼 Hedge Funds and Institutional Sentiment

The Financial Times reports that hedge funds have begun trimming U.S. dollar exposure amid concerns over central bank politicisation. FT and Reuters confirm Trump is preparing an early Powell replacement shortlist including Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller.

This isn’t just about who replaces Powell. It’s about credibility. If the Fed becomes an extension of the executive branch, pricing mechanisms across credit, bonds, and FX may start to decouple.

🕵️‍♂️ Epstein, Bongino, and the Swamp Angle

FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino is reportedly ready to walk after a behind-closed-doors blow-up with AG Pam Bondi. The topic? Epstein’s client list. Bondi allegedly claimed she had it, but after an 11-hour surveillance video was released, with one “missing minute”, speculation exploded. The video may have raised more questions than it answered.

🍿 Welcome to Episode 367 of “Everything is a Distraction.”

🗳️ Can Trump Run Again?

DOJ’s Emil Bove (Trump’s former defence lawyer, now judge nominee) refused to say. When asked if a third term was constitutional, he called it “an abstract hypothetical.” That silence has fueled speculation.

Rep. Mike Lawler responded sharply: “The Constitution is clear. Two terms. If it was good enough for George Washington, it’s good enough for everyone else.”

🧭 Market Reaction So Far: Shrug… For Now

Despite the chaos, markets haven’t reacted. $SPY barely moved, and $TLT remains pinned. No true volatility spike, no major capital rotation.

But that might be the calm before the reprice. If Powell resigns and is replaced with a pro-stimulus chair, it may spark a knee-jerk rally. But inflation and tariffs could still trap the Fed.

📈 Is This Bullish or Bearish? 📰🗞️

Powell leaving could look bullish to some, loosening the Fed’s posture and easing policy constraints. But Trump’s tariffs raise structural price pressure, and Goolsbee just confirmed that complicates any cut path.

In reality, this is likely bearish. Political interference, fiscal drag from tariffs, and Fed disarray don’t form the basis of a sustained bull case.

🔥 Final Take

This isn’t just about Powell leaving. It’s about institutional confidence bleeding out. The market may be quiet for now, but under the surface, pressure is building. If a resignation becomes official, it could force a swift repricing in rates, credit, and equities.

And if this is the moment the Fed’s independence truly cracks, the unwind may already be in motion.

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