To The Moon

Cyclical Stock.

If you are considering, investing in US automobile stocks, then you need to know that they are cyclical in nature.

Their performance is closely tied to the overall health of US economy and fluctuates with economic cycles of expansion & recession.

During periods of economic growth, consumers are more likely to purchase new vehicles, driving up sales and profitability for automakers.

Conversely, in economic downturns or recessions, consumers tend to delay or forgo major purchases (or big ticket item) like cars, leading to significant declines in sales and profits for auto companies.

EV Pullback ?

Electric vehicles in the US are at a crossroad.

Sales are still going up, but many automakers are canceling or delaying new models, worried by recent policy moves that will make EVs more expensive to own.

Every day bring fresh news of (a) a delayed EV or (b) a timeline that’s been pushed back, as automakers struggle to adapt to this newly volatile environment.

Trump’s tariffs are definitely not helping, nor is the recent passage of his $3.4 trillion “big, beautiful” budget bill, that takes a sledgehammer to most EV incentive programs.

Trump’s decision to reverse tougher emissions rules passed under former President Joe Biden is just icing on a pretty unappetizing cake.

Expect a big push by car dealers to sell EVs before the $7,500 tax credit ends in September 2025.

Thereafter, the future looks dicey.

Many car companies are still assessing the damage, but delaying future models seems like the most popular move now.

According to Edmunds (a US online resource for auto inventory & info), Director, Ivan Drury:

• Automakers that postponed new model launches in recent years may have gained by watching the market.

• However the (current) growing challenges may be too difficult to overcome.

• If these models do not have potential in other countries, more of them are likely to be canceled completely.

For sure, EVs are absolutely here to stay.

Many surveys have found that once you go EV, you’re less likely to ever go back to internal combustion engines (ICE).

Drury noted that nearly half the time (45%) an EV is utilized as a trade-in at a dealership for a new vehicle, the purchase is for another EV.

Autos Uncertain Futures.

In the interest of clarity, a run down of “selected” models’ uncertain futures is in order.

Ferrari

Ferrari pushed back plans to launch its 2nd fully electric vehicle, according to a report from Reuters, with an anonymous source noting that there is “zero” demand for high-performance electric cars now.

$Ford(F)$

The Blue Oval had the foresight to cancel its 3-row electric SUV before Trump’s win in the US presidential election last November 2024.

Instead, Ford is banking on a future lineup of inexpensive EVs that are under development by its skunkworks team in Silicon Valley.

In the meantime, Ford expects to release a bunch of new gas and hybrid-powered 3-row SUVs.

Honda

The Japanese automaker has reportedly canceled plans for a large electric SUV.

It was supposed to launch in 2027, but according to a report from Nikkei Asia, Honda has halted development on the model and slashed how much it plans to spend on EVs through 2030.

This comes 2 years after Honda canceled its plan with GM to jointly release a new lineup of cheaper EVs.

Honda says it still plans on releasing its Honda Zero models in the US in 2026.

Others.

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ , which recently received another $1 billion from its joint venture with Volkswagen, still plan to release the R2 in 2026. However, there’s no update on when the buzzy R3 hatchback will start production.

Slate Auto also expects to start delivering its basic electric truck in 2026. The truck was originally advertised to cost under $20,000 with EV incentives. With the tax break gone (courtesy of Trump), the price is listed as “mid-twenties” on the company’s website.

Meanwhile, Volkswagen is preparing to release its affordable EVs:

• ID.EVERY1 (about $23,380).

• ID.2all (about $29,225).

Volkswagen’s global EV sales grew by about +50% in H1 2025.

However, it is having trouble selling its ID.Buzz electric van in the US, making the company hesitant to bring its cheaper models to North America.

As for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$, no official word about Tesla’s supposed affordable EV.

Tesla, which is on track to sell less EVs this year (for 2nd consecutive year), hasn’t said when the new model will be released. It’s expected to be a cheaper version of Model Y.

China EV Market.

According to Morgan Stanley:

• China’s EV market continues to grow.

• It estimated that China’s battery-electric market is 7x larger than the US.

• And the lead is widening on a yearly basis.

Drury also said :

• Investors hoping for an all-EV future may want to temper their expectations.

• EV supporters might hope for a one-to-one replacement ratio, but EV technology still has a lot of room to improve in the future, even if ‘that future’ is delayed.

US EV Market.

Is there growth in US domestic EV market ?

YTD in 2025, EV sales for US legacy car makers - Ford, $Stellantis NV(STLA)$ and $General Motors(GM)$ showed significant divergence in performance: (see below)

• Ford: Sold 38,988 EVs YTD. This represents a -11.8% decline compared to the same period last year.

• Stellantis: EV sales remain modest, with Dodge selling 4,299 charger EVs YTD. Stellantis’ overall US EV sales are still a small fraction of its total, and the group’s US sales are down sharply YoY.

• GM: Sold over 62,000 EVs YTD through May, making GM the #2 EV seller in the US and showing a remarkable +94% YoY increase in EV sales

Of the 3 domestic EV makers, GM is the standout performer in 2025 YTD, with robust EV sales growth and an expanding portfolio.

This highlight the competitive pressures and shifting consumer dynamics in the US EV market as legacy automakers adapt their strategies.

Stocks Movement.

The 4 car makers YTD stock price movements shows a totally different picture of them. (see above)

• F (Ford) comes up tops with a +22.07% gain as of 11 Jul 2025.

• GM is next with a +3.93% gain.

• TSLA is third but with a -17.34% loss.

• STLA is last with a -21.21% loss as well.

Conclusion.

Outlook for US auto stocks is challenging one, with:

• Mixed EV sales results.

• US economic uncertainty.

• US policy changes that will hurt EV demand.

GM appears to be the strongest performer, while Ford, Stellantis, & Tesla face more significant headwinds.

Investors should closely monitor (1) US economic signals and (2) the 3 companies Q2 2025 earnings results.

For investors seeking stability:

• Is it time to reduce exposure to the weaker players eg. Ford, Stellantis and Tesla?

• While consider, holding GM with caution (and always be prepared to flee at short notice), given its relative strength and more favorable analyst expectations.

If you think you have missed an opportunity to buy US car stock, my personal mantra is, “there will always be a next time ! “

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