To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$ 🚀🔥🎯 Nvidia’s China Gambit: $16B Unlocked, RTX PRO Ignites Stock Surge 🎯🔥🚀

Jensen Huang just pulled off a masterstroke in China, and I’m all in. The greenlight for H20 chip sales, combined with the launch of Nvidia’s RTX PRO GPU custom-built for the Chinese market, isn’t just a newsflash; it’s a high-stakes pivot that could reshape Nvidia’s growth arc for the next year. After diving into the technicals, fundamentals, and macro context, I believe we’re looking at a setup with serious breakout potential.

Let’s unpack why I think NVDA could rip into the $180s, and maybe beyond next week. I’m calling it: Nvidia will close at $178.50 on Friday, with an outside shot at $180 if the stars align, think big China order announcements or a strong Chain Expo vibe. I’d watch $175 as the key level; a close above it on Thursday could confirm the push to $180. Either way, Nvidia’s got the wind at its back, and I’m betting on a strong finish to the week.

📈 Technical Setup: Bullish Breakout in Progress

As of 15Jul25 NZT, Nvidia’s trading at $171.355, up from $164.07 at last close. That’s a clean 4.5% intraday move, pushing year-to-date gains to a staggering 170%, and +18% over the past month alone. I’m seeing multiple bullish signals aligning:

• Price Structure: The stock just reclaimed the $170 level. A daily close above $175 opens the door to $180, with $190 within striking distance if momentum accelerates.

• Indicators: RSI is sitting at 65, strong, but not overheated. The MACD has turned positive again with a clean crossover, pointing to fresh upside energy.

• Chart Pattern: I’m spotting a classic cup-and-handle on the daily. If that handle clears, the measured move points toward $188 to $190.

Call options at the $175 and $180 strikes expiring 18Jul are getting aggressively bid. With short interest at 8% of the float, it’s not excessive; but enough to trigger a momentum burst if volume spikes. The gamma setup this week looks explosive.

💰 Fundamentals: China Delivers a $10B Lifeline

The H20 was tailor-made for China’s AI ambitions, and it’s back in play. When U.S. export restrictions first hit, I thought Nvidia might face a multi-billion-dollar revenue hole. But on 09Apr25, Huang secured an indefinite export license for the H20 after lobbying Trump and key U.S. policymakers. That flipped the narrative.

• Revenue Reboot: China ordered $16B in H20 chips in Q1 2024 alone. ByteDance is projected to buy 230,000 units this year, trailing only Microsoft’s 485,000. I estimate this channel could pump an additional $10B into Nvidia’s top line over the next 12 months, lifting revenue growth from 22% to potentially 28 to 30% in FY2026.

• Margins in Recovery: That $5.5B inventory write-down in early 2025 dragged gross margin down to 58% in Q1, from 65% a year prior. But with Chinese orders flowing again, I’m forecasting a margin recovery to 62 to 64% by year-end.

• RTX PRO Launch: This is Nvidia’s ace card. The new GPU is fully compliant with U.S. trade rules and targets China’s digital twin and smart factory sectors. I’m pencilling in $2 to 3B in annual revenue upside from this alone.

This isn’t passive diplomacy; Jensen’s been on the ground in China three times this year. His Chain Expo appearance on 16Jul25 (amid 40°C heat, no less) and that leather-jacket photo-op with Xiaomi’s Lei Jun signal one thing: Nvidia is not backing down.

🌐 Macro Context: AI Demand Surging as Geopolitics Realign

Zooming out, the global landscape adds further fuel:

• AI Chip Demand: The market’s scaling fast, $45B in 2024 heading to $120B by 2028. Nvidia still owns this runway.

• US–China Dynamics: Authorising the H20 license was a calculated move by Trump’s team to maintain U.S. dominance in AI, without handing China the keys. It’s a balancing act, but one that plays directly into Nvidia’s hand.

• Sovereign AI Boom: Jensen’s “sovereign AI” pitch, emphasising local AI compute infrastructure, is resonating globally, and China’s the biggest prize. DeepSeek’s Lunar New Year demand spike only reinforces that this isn’t a one-off.

Even in a higher-rate environment, Nvidia’s 25x forward earnings multiple looks attractive when stacked against its 5-year average of 30x. The China re-entry could trigger a full rerating.

📰 Catalyst Recap: Why This Week Matters

🔥 Here’s why I’m fired up right now:

• H20 Export License (09Apr25): Brought $16B in Q1 2024 orders back into play; clear evidence of pent-up demand.

• RTX PRO GPU Launch: Nvidia is adapting at speed. This chip is compliant, competitive, and directly targets China’s industrial digitisation wave.

• Jensen’s Diplomacy: Multiple China visits in 2024, meetings with Trump and Beijing officials, and a major Chain Expo headline appearance, this is full-throttle execution.

ByteDance and Tencent are loading up. DeepSeek is fuelling a secondary demand wave. The stars are aligning.

🏦 Institutional and Analyst Positioning

• Price Targets: Goldman Sachs is at $185, Citi at $190, with the Street average at $179.32 and a high end of $250. From here, that’s roughly 10% upside; but I think those estimates are trailing reality.

• Hedge Fund Bets: Coatue’s Philippe Laffont sees NVDA hitting a $5.6T market cap by 2030. Hedge funds are rotating heavily into AI infrastructure, and NVDA is still top of the Nasdaq 100.

Even retail flows are on fire 🔥. Traders online are dialled in to Jensen’s China pivot, the RTX PRO buzz, and the scale of the H20 backlog. This narrative has legs.

🔎 My Watchlist This Week

1. $175 Close: A breakout confirmation opens clean air to $180, and possibly $190.

2. 🇨🇳 China Orders: Watch for new announcements from ByteDance, Tencent, or DeepSeek.

3. Macro Risks: Any sudden flare-up between D.C. and Beijing could inject volatility; I’ll be tracking this closely.

4. Options Dynamics: The $180 strike has magnetic potential into 18Jul expiry. A gamma pop is very possible.

5. Chain Expo Buzz (16Jul): Jensen could drop another headline moment: new partnerships, big customer deals, or export flexibility pivots.

💡 My Trade Plan

• Buy the Stock: I’m adding on dips to $165, with $190 as my short-term target. This is a high-conviction macro + momentum play.

• Options Strategy: Selling $160 puts for August to pocket premium, or running a $170/$180 call spread for directional upside.

• Hedge Protection: For long exposure, I’ll anchor with $160 puts as downside insurance. China’s a big opportunity, but still unpredictable.

📍 Conclusion: Nvidia’s China Reentry Is the Launchpad

I’m calling it, this isn’t just a rebound; it’s a reacceleration. Between the H20 unlock, RTX PRO tailwind, and Jensen’s all-out geopolitical strategy, Nvidia is making its boldest move since the original Hopper rollout. The technicals are validating the narrative, and the capital flows are following.

🎯 My near-term prediction? A close at $178.50 week, up 4.2% from $171.355. But if the Chain Expo headlines land and call momentum kicks in, we could be staring down $180+ by Friday.

This is Nvidia’s moment to reclaim the AI throne, and I’m not just watching from the sidelines. I’m on this rocket 🚀

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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