To The Moon

NVIDIA just made headlines again, announcing the return of its H20 chip sales in China alongside new GPU models tailored to meet export rules. With the U.S. government signaling support for license approvals, the company is gearing up to restart deliveries soon. The market loved the news—NVIDIA stock soared 4%, hitting a fresh all-time high of $172.

With gains stacking up, some investors are eyeing covered calls to lock in profits. Others might be exploring different plays. What’s your strategy for this AI juggernaut?

🎁Special Notes: Whoever showed up on the” What the Tigers Say” column will receive 100 Tiger Coins and an exclusive interview invitation to honor your contribution.

Click titles to read the full analysis:

1. @Lanceljx:

Key Points:

Strategic Implications of H20 Sales in China:

1. Revenue Diversification: The re-entry into the Chinese market allows NVIDIA to recapture lost revenue streams, particularly from large-scale buyers such as data centres and AI research institutions.

2. Regulatory Alignment: By designing chips that meet U.S. export restrictions, NVIDIA demonstrates adaptability—preserving market access without violating geopolitical constraints.

3. Supply Chain Optimisation: Resuming sales under a clear legal framework reduces uncertainty, supporting more stable operations in the Asia-Pacific region.

Projection for Friday's Close (July 18, 2025):

Assuming current momentum holds and broader market conditions remain favourable:

Bullish Scenario: Stock could close between $175 and $178, driven by continued institutional buying and upward technical momentum.

Moderate Scenario: If gains consolidate, a close around $172 to $174 is plausible.

Bearish Risk: A pullback is possible if broader market sentiment sours or profit-taking sets in, possibly dragging it back to $169–$170.

In summary, NVIDIA’s China play is tactically sound and could serve as a springboard for a new leg of growth—particularly as AI chip demand accelerates globally. The rally appears fundamentally supported rather than purely speculative.

2. @Elijahxc:

Key Points:

Support for an ~8% rally, with the potential to reach $178–$185 in the near term. In the bull case, the price could extend toward $200+ if the export pipeline to China broadens.

3. @ToNi:

Key Points:

Financially, the numbers sing NVIDIA’s praises. A 69% year-over-year revenue jump to $44.1 billion in Q1 FY26, with data center revenue soaring 73%, underscores its AI dominance. Even with a temporary dip in gross margins due to H20 losses, the adjusted 71.3% margin signals resilience. At a forward P/E of 38.31 and a market cap flirting with $4 trillion, some might cry overvaluation. I see undervalued potential—especially as the China play could push earnings per share beyond the forecasted $1.00 for the next quarter.

Risks? Sure, geopolitical tensions could flare up again, and competitors like AMD lurk in the wings. But NVIDIA’s ecosystem lock-in—think NIM software and GTC 2025’s groundbreaking demos—gives it an edge that’s hard to replicate. My contrarian call: buy on any pullback to $164, with a target of $180 in the near term and $250 by year-end 2025. This isn’t just a stock; it’s a stake in the AI revolution’s next chapter.

4. @OptionsBB:

Key Points:

Trading Strategies

1. If you hold NVIDIA stock: If you’re concerned about the stock consolidating at higher levels, you can sell out-of-the-money calls to generate income during this phase.

2. If you want to chase NVIDIA but fear buying at the top: Consider selling out-of-the-money puts to capitalize on upward momentum while reducing your risk of being trapped at high prices.

Strike Price and Expiration References

• Sell Call Option: $NVDA 20250725 180.0 CALL (90% win rate)

• Sell Put Option: $NVDA 20250718 165.0 PUT (83% win rate)

5. @Barcode:

Key Points:

📊 Technical Harmony: MP Momentum Breakout, NVDA Wedge Pressure

• $MP: Weekly MACD flipped, RSI pushing 87, price action cleanly stair-stepped through prior highs. Volume surged as DMA(10,50) turned steeply positive.

• JL System confirmed the move live, with Buy Signal Forecast graded A+. Entry alert triggered just before $59, with continuation now holding above $60.

• $NVDA: Momentum Score maxed out at 5, spot price consolidating above $160 with $172.40 the next hurdle. Weekly MACD at 10.60 and RSI (6,12,24) aligned between 72 and 87 across the board.

Both charts show synchronised volume surges, positive divergence on MACD, and RSI acceleration. The entire setup looks like the early innings of a supercycle.

📈 Options & Capital Flow Confirmations

• NVDA 2026 $230C: $1.46M premium, 1,992 volume vs 863 OI, 97% call skew

• NVDA overall order flow: +$12.35M net premium, 905k contracts, highest call/put ratio of the day

• MP intraday chart: Buy setup system activated pre-breakout, trend held firm throughout the session with disciplined momentum bands maintaining structure

💡 What I’m Watching Next

• Does $MP see further institutional rotation post-Apple investment, now that supply chain reshoring is confirmed?

• Can $NVDA convert this momentum into a clean breakout past $172.40? If so, I’m targeting $181.20 and then $197.50 on quarterly upside extension.

• Will China formally respond with additional tech approvals? If rare-earths and GPUs are now trading chips in global policy, expect SPY components like $TSM and $AMD to follow.

6. @Isleigh:

Key Points:

🎯 Where could it close this Friday?

$NVDA closed at $172.13. If bullish momentum continues, it could test $178–180 this week.

Implied volatility is rising into Friday's options expiry. Watch the $175 and $180 call walls.

Risk? If Fed minutes or CPI hit risk appetite, tech might stall.

📈 Trade setups:

Momentum: Long $NVDL or buy $175c expiring this Friday (only if BTC and SOXX remain strong).

Fade: If $180 hits early Thursday, consider selling covered calls or protective puts.

Lotto: Small $180c or $182.5c positions—cheap gamma, big reward if we get another headline spike.

💬 My call? Closes between $177–179 if market stays firm.

7. @yourcelesttyy:

Key Points:

Trading and Investment Strategies

Short-Term Plays

• Buy on Dip: Enter at $150-$155, target $190, stop at $140. A 18-27% gain if Q2 earnings or China sales updates impress.

• Options Straddle: Buy $167 calls/puts to profit from volatility around earnings or trade news.

• Competitor Hedge: Buy AMD at $130-$140, target $160, stop at $120, to balance NVIDIA’s risk with AI chip upside.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold NVIDIA: Buy at $150-$155, target $200-$250 over 12 months, for 22-55% upside with AI and China growth.

• Diversify with Tech ETF (XLK): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, for broad tech exposure.

• Defensive Play: Buy UnitedHealth (UNH) at $300, target $436.83, for 40% upside and 2.8% dividend yield.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $15, target $18, stop at $13, to hedge against tariff or earnings volatility.

• SPY ETF Puts: Use puts at $614 to protect against a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback.

• Gold ETF (GLD): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven hedge.

My Trading Plan

I’m cautiously bullish on NVIDIA, seeing $187-$189 as achievable by July 18, 2025, driven by China sales and AI momentum. I’ll buy NVDA at $150-$155, targeting $190, with a $140 stop, betting on Q2 earnings and China revenue. For diversification, I’ll add AMD at $130-$140, targeting $160, with a $120 stop, to capture AI chip upside. I’m hedging with VIXY at $15, targeting $18, and keeping 20% cash to seize dips if tariffs (e.g., U.S.-China trade tensions) or geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran conflict) shake markets. I’ll monitor Q2 earnings (August 27), China sales updates, and trade negotiations for cues.

Questions for you:

With gains stacking up, some investors are eyeing covered calls to lock in profits. Others might be exploring different plays. What’s your strategy for this AI juggernaut?

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⏰Duration

• 23 July (24pm EDT)