To The Moon

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2507(BTCmain)$ $Strategy(MSTR)$ 

🚀🔥📊 Coinbase and Bitcoin Set Up for Bull Phase ~ Tactical Insights and Macro Drivers Into 2025–26 📈⚡️🧠

Updated Position and Compression Setup

I entered $COIN yesterday at $396.16 and as of 25Jul25 NZST 🇳🇿, I’m up +1.14% with the stock trading at $400.66. It’s modest, but the structure suggests this could just be the prelude. Coinbase has been one of the most structurally clean movers in the past 12 months, and I’m positioning into what looks like a textbook consolidation before the next expansion leg. Meanwhile, Bitcoin just fired a +12% rally and now sits inside a symmetrical triangle, squeezing once again. This may be the final coil before breakout.

Bitcoin: Coiled Spring Beneath $120k

Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently trading at $119,245, compressed within a multi-week symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. Price has consistently respected both the rising trendline (with an 84% bounce probability) and the sloping resistance. This tightening range, combined with a clear volatility squeeze indicator, signals imminent expansion. A clean break and hold above $120,000 unlocks upside into the $123,278 high, and potentially $130,981 next.

From a macro lens, Bitcoin remains supported by inflation concerns, global fiscal instability, and persistent Fed caution. The combination of monetary debasement and a potential Trump-favored fiscal regime, likely to reintroduce large deficits and higher tariffs, fuels the flight to digital scarcity.

I’ve studied the charts and catalysts. The structure is intact as long as BTC holds the lower band near $116,000. Lose that, and the setup weakens, but while compression continues, risk/reward favours the upside.

Coinbase: Structural Strength with Momentum Tailwind

Coinbase ($COIN) is now deep into a bullish continuation setup. The inverse head and shoulders neckline breakout around $387 was retested this week and is holding firm. The current inside bar forming on the weekly suggests healthy indecision, not weakness. With price consolidating between $387 and $400, the conditions are aligning for a breakout toward the $430 measured move. Weekly fib targets from two separate structures point toward $430 and $580.

The monthly Bollinger Bands have expanded meaningfully; this is one of my favorite higher timeframe volatility signals. When expansion follows trend, it typically precedes multi-week directional moves. On the weekly, the cup-and-handle continuation pattern is clearly visible. Momentum remains strong across RSI (near 68), MACD, and volume profiles.

Fundamentals: Real Growth and Regulatory Momentum

Coinbase remains the dominant on-ramp to crypto in the U.S., and institutional adoption continues to scale. ROE stands at 15.84% and the company’s market cap is $102.1B, up significantly YTD. Earnings are due post-market 31Jul25. Consensus EPS is $4.775, and analysts are divided; most still underestimate Coinbase’s strategic position.

Notable institutional developments:

• Louisiana State Employees Retirement System just disclosed a new $3.9M position in $COIN

• BlackRock and ARK continue to hold and accumulate through ETFs with indirect $COIN exposure

• Erste Group just initiated coverage with a Buy rating, citing strong future cash flows and institutional crypto adoption

• Bernstein has reiterated their high-end PT of $510

Recent bipartisan crypto regulation momentum has created a backstop for both Coinbase and BTC. The GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and anti-CBDC protections passed through the House have boosted sentiment materially.

Options Flow and Sentiment

Unusual options activity shows call accumulation at $400 and $430 strikes for August and September. Open interest has swelled around these levels, and IV is expanding into earnings. While short interest has declined modestly, the gamma structure suggests potential for squeeze dynamics if price breaks the $430 neckline target.

Technicals Confirm the Thesis

• Weekly cup-and-handle with neckline breakout

• Bollinger Band expansion on monthly timeframe

• MACD turning bullish across weekly and daily

• RSI remains below overbought, showing runway

• Weekly candle showing healthy retest range

Forward Watchlist and Triggers

For $BTC:

• Bullish trigger above $120,000

• Target 1: $123,278

• Target 2: $130,981

• Caution below $116,000

For $COIN:

• Neckline support: $387

• Breakout target: $430

• Weekly stretch target: $580

• Earnings event: 31Jul25

Conclusion

I’m extremely confident in both setups. Bitcoin’s squeeze is primed; Coinbase is structurally aligned and fundamentally sound. Both assets are supported by improving macro tailwinds, regulatory support, and growing institutional conviction. These aren’t just charts, they’re well-positioned stories backed by fundamentals, flow, and sentiment. I’ll continue to track volume, options flow, and support reactions closely. Until the structure fails, I’m staying firmly aligned with the bullish roadmap.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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