To The Moon

2025 Q2 Earnings Expectations

• $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon’s Q2 results are expected to exceed market consensus, with projected revenue of $164 billion.

• Resilient consumer demand, with North American retail sales growth likely to reach 10%, exceeding the market’s 8% expectation.

• Amazon was the only major retailer to show accelerated sales growth in June.

• Due to chip supply constraints, AWS growth in Q2 will be slightly slower than Q1, but capacity is expected to improve in the second half of the year.

• However, Q2 profit margins are expected to shrink by 60 basis points QoQ.

• Q3 guidance is likely to be in line with expectations.

How to Evaluate the Earnings Outlook

• It’s a positive report.

• No major bearish catalysts, but the bullish factors are likely already priced in.

• Current valuation is not at historical highs.

• Expected earnings volatility: ±5.4%, with a trading range of $217–$243.

Trading Strategy

• With no major downside risks, the stock is unlikely to fall below the expected range. Selling put options is a viable strategy.

• Sell put options before the earnings announcement and close the position at the market open on the release day.

• For those holding Amazon stock, sell out-of-the-money call options to generate additional income.

Strike Price and Expiration Suggestions

1. Covered Call Writing Strategy:

   • $AMZN 20250801 245.0 CALL (86% win rate).

2. Put Selling Strategy:

   • $AMZN 20250801 217.5 PUT (85% win rate).