To The Moon

$abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF(PPLT)$ $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ $Platinum - main 2510(PLmain)$ 🌌💰 From Forgotten Metal to Breakout Beast: Can Platinum Sustain the Ascent? 🔩🔥

Platinum has come roaring back into the spotlight with a jaw-dropping 42% rally in just two months, and I’m tracking it with deep conviction. After being the underdog to gold for nearly a decade, the tides may finally be turning, and the implications stretch far beyond jewelry counters.

I’m watching the technicals light up across the board. I’m dissecting historical mean reversion setups, ETF flows, and price-action inflection across both physical and paper markets. I’m increasingly convinced we may be entering a structural regime shift in the platinum-to-gold ratio.

Gold is up only 0.9% in the past two months; platinum exploded +42%. The long-neglected spread trade may be entering a new cycle of convergence. This isn’t just a bounce; it’s a credibility reset.

🕰️ The Lost Decade Flips Narrative

Platinum averaged around $950/oz from 2015 through May 2025, trapped in industrial indifference while gold surged 160% to over $3,300/oz. But July marked a technical and psychological regime break. For the first time since the financial crisis, platinum isn’t just keeping pace with gold; it’s outpacing it.

The historical chart shows that from the 1970s through early 2000s, platinum typically traded at a premium to gold. That dynamic flipped post-2011, then cratered during the EV shift away from diesel. History shows how quickly regime shifts can reverse.

🧪 Technical Tailwinds Confirm Structural Breakout

• Platinum spot (XPTUSD) hit $1,336 today after bouncing off the $1,280 support zone with textbook volume confirmation. The daily chart shows support on the 55 EMA with compression across Keltner and Bollinger bands. RSI is curling higher from neutral. MACD is narrowing into crossover formation.

• The abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF ($PPLT) mirrors this move. From a base around $95 in early June, it surged to a local high of $133.80 before consolidating near $121.67. Weekly RSI is holding above 60, and MACD just crossed into bullish territory.

• SPDR Gold Shares ($GLD) still shows strength, currently around $312.87, but momentum is flattening. RSI is 64.17 with a softening MACD. Gold remains in an uptrend, but may be near exhaustion short term; divergence from platinum is becoming evident.

🪙 Gold vs Platinum: The Ratio is Cracking

The gold-to-platinum ratio, once above 2.2x, is now testing a breakdown from multi-year highs. Every time in history this ratio has mean-reverted, platinum outperformed decisively for multiple quarters. If the current momentum holds, we could see this ratio compress rapidly toward 1.5x by Q4.

📉 Risk-On Rotation & Sector Realignment

Industrial demand for platinum is surging as automakers expand hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell programs. Meanwhile, central banks and sovereigns continue hoarding gold, but hedge funds are now sniffing platinum’s asymmetric upside. This is a classic late-cycle metal rotation, and it’s gaining steam.

Volatility remains elevated; note the Keltner Band extensions and volume spikes. But as the price stabilizes above $1,300, the probability of deeper institutional participation increases.

💡 Strategic Setup

• Platinum upside: $1,440 (previous Bollinger top), $1,520 (measured move extension), $1,650 (2011 breakdown pivot)

• Support: $1,280 (breakout retest), $1,200 (volume shelf), $1,048 (prior cycle high)

• PPLT target: $135.50 stretch target, $145 if momentum accelerates

• GLD support: $308–$303; upside remains capped short term at $318–$321

🤔 Can platinum reclaim its premium over gold? It hasn’t traded above gold since 2015, but the setup now feels eerily similar to 2008, when platinum roared back from obscurity and outperformed gold by 2.5× within 12 months.

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