To The Moon

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 🚀🛰️📊 $SOUN 217% Revenue Surge, 40% Short Float, Wedge Breakout Targeting $14.70 and $16.50 📊🛰️🚀

SoundHound AI’s Q2 2025 numbers executed with surgical precision: $42.7M revenue (+217% YoY) versus $32.9M consensus ignited a +28.17% gap and +32.25% intraday surge. Price confirmed a wedge breakout with MACD positive, RSI ~71 acting as a volatility trigger, and the 50MA anchoring support. A 40% short float, 126M shares short, and 3.33 days to cover amplify the potential. A decisive $14.70 break on >60M shares could unlock $16.50 quickly, with the $24.98 high back in scope if execution persists.

Catalyst Snapshot

Q2 2025: $42.7M vs $32.9M consensus; FY25 guidance $160M–$178M (up from $157M–$177M). Options flow aggressive; DA Davidson PT $15, Wedbush PT $16. Nvidia-linked names rallied in sympathy: $SOUN +21%, Nebius +7%, CoreWeave +7%, Innoviz +3%.

Financial & Operational Highlights

• Revenue: $42.7M, +217% YoY, beat vs $32.9M est.

• Adjusted EPS: -$0.03 vs -$0.05 expected

• Net Loss: $74.7M vs $37.3M prior year, offset by backlog growth

• Backlog & Wins: 1,000+ new locations; China automotive OEM; Red Lobster, IHOP; Acrelec partnership (McDonald’s/Dunkin’ potential)

• Product: Vision AI launch integrating visual recognition with voice platform

• Profitability: EBITDA positive targeted by year-end

CEO Insights and Adoption Trends

Keyvan Mohajer calls this an inflection: “Enterprises mandate 100% accurate AI voice automation.” SoundHound’s customisation capabilities and hallucination-mitigation tech strengthen its competitive edge. Enterprise adoption is no longer experimental; in multiple verticals it is now a requirement.

Technical Structure

• Price: $13.60 intraday, confirmed wedge breakout

• Targets: $14.70, $15.00, $16.50; stretch $24.98 prior cycle high

• Supports: $11.59 50MA, $11.37 pivot, $9.80–$10.20 demand zone

• Indicators: MACD positive; RSI ~71 (volatility trigger); Keltner/Bollinger expansion confirming trend

Short Interest Dynamics

Short float ~40%, ~126M shares short, 3.33 days to cover, short ratio 14.36; positioning could accelerate upside if $14.70 breaks with conviction.

Valuation & Risk Lens

Market cap ~$3.6B at $13.60; ~21× P/S on FY25 guidance; rich vs SaaS peers at 8–12× but underpinned by +217% growth and multi-vertical TAM expansion. Risks: scaling execution, concentration in key sectors, macro/trade headwinds, and bridging from EBITDA positive to GAAP profitability.

Trading Plan

• Breakout Trigger: $14.70; $16.50 if volume >60M shares

• Pullback Zone: $13.20–$13.70 while holding above VWAP and 50MA

• Risk Level: Exit below $11.50 if 50MA breaks and momentum unwinds

• Positioning: Build on dips near $12 if backlog momentum and Vision AI adoption remain intact; hedge via covered calls or AI ETF in volatility spikes

I’m weighing a triple-digit revenue beat, surging enterprise adoption, and a heavy short float against valuation and widened GAAP loss. Technical strength, sector sympathy flows, and defined triggers make $14.70 the key pivot; break it with volume and $16.50 could be reached quickly, with $24.98 a stretch target if execution continues on this trajectory.

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