To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 💡📈🚗 Tesla $TSLA Robotaxi Licence Triggers $35M Call Surge as Breakout Levels Come Into Play 🚗📈💡

📊 Price action and setup

Tesla extended its winning streak to a third straight session, closing at 329.68, up 2.30% on 90.38M shares, with a post-market tick to 329.95 at 16:04 EDT. The range spanned 322.27 to an intraday high of 333.70. From the open, $35M in calls hit the tape within minutes, flipping liquidity skew decisively bullish. GEX climbed 19% to 320.3M while DEX rose 8.8% to 35.78B, setting the stage for a gamma-driven move if 335 is reclaimed. Early strength took price from the 319 gold mid to 333.34 on heavy sweeps at 325, 327.5, and 330 strikes.

🚀📅 Tesla’s Friday Edge: The 90% Green-Day Phenomenon 📅🚀

💥 Another Tesla Friday, and the stats don’t lie. Over the past year, when $TSLA opened the first 15-minute candle green on a Friday, it went on to close green 90% of the time. Out of 30 green Friday opens, 27 ended higher, while only 3 flipped red. Even with a red open, Tesla still managed to close green nearly a third of the time. For traders, this isn’t just a fun fact, it’s a high-probability setup that continues to deliver.

📅 Key catalyst and impact

On 08Aug25, Tesla secured a rideshare licence in Texas for Tesla Robotaxi LLC. The law effective 01Sep25 aligns autonomous rideshare with human-driver rules, requiring oversight, insurance, and compliance systems. Texas’s rideshare market is estimated at US$5B, adding roughly 10–15% to Tesla’s total addressable market per Morgan Stanley. Short-term impact is high; structural potential is medium-high if expansion to states like California follows, with discussions reportedly underway.

📈 Intraday flow timeline

• Premarket: steady bid holds above 319.

• 9:30am EST: $5M in calls trade in two minutes; P/C volume ratio drops to 0.41.

• 9:35–9:45am: persistent sweeps at 325–330 strikes push through the call wall.

• 10:00am: $34.6M in net calls; peak at 333.34.

• Midday: consolidation above 332 while Mag7 call premium exceeds $110M.

💵 Financial context and valuation

Tesla’s $1.06T market cap comes with a P/E of ~85x, far above BYD’s ~22x, reflecting premium growth expectations tied to AI, autonomous driving, and robotaxi TAM expansion. July UK deliveries fell 60% YoY to 987 units, with similar drops in France, signalling European headwinds. The $16.5B semiconductor deal with Samsung through 2033 secures AI chip supply for both vehicle autonomy and data centre applications. Technology now comprises 34.45% of the S&P 500, more than 20 percentage points ahead of Financials at 13.53%, magnifying both upside impact and concentration risk.

🗣 Leadership and strategy

Elon Musk reaffirmed his long-term stance, agreeing with a claim that a $150K Tesla investment could reach $1M over time. He’s set to receive 96M shares valued at ~$29B under his CEO award. The decision to wind down the in-house Dojo programme and shift AI compute to Nvidia, AMD, and Samsung hardware reduces capex while accelerating rollout timelines.

🔍 Competition and legal factors

BYD will expand its Yangwang and Denza brands into Europe in 2026, intensifying premium EV competition. A federal lawsuit from former Tesla HR employees and a senior security manager alleges retaliation over discrimination complaints at Fremont, with potential sentiment impact of 5–10% if unresolved. Despite these risks, rivals like Waymo and Cruise remain behind Tesla in integrating autonomy into scalable services.

📊 Sector and peer flows

Apple’s $44M in near-term calls versus $6M in puts reflects strong Mag7 momentum. ARKK saw $20M in inflows, indicating rotation into EV and innovation names. Rivian and Lucid rose 0.5–1% but lagged Tesla’s gains, underscoring capital concentration in leaders.

🛠 Technical picture

• Multi-timeframe: 4H supertrend BUY; daily wedge breakout; weekly coil under long-term resistance from 488.

• Indicators: RSI(6) 56.87, RSI(12) 53.68; MACD(12,26,9) positive on 4H/daily; narrowing Bollinger and Keltner bands point to volatility expansion.

• Key levels: Support: 319.15, 310 HVL, 300 put wall. Resistance: 335 trigger, 337.60, 343.75, 353 stretch.

• Historical context: the last breakout above 335 on 15Jun25 delivered a 12% rally in three sessions, suggesting strong probability of follow-through if reclaimed.

📉 Short positioning

Short float is ~3.2%, with 29M shares short and 2.1 days to cover per Nasdaq. Low short interest means the current move is options-driven, but a breakout above 335 could force incremental covering.

📝 Options breakdown

Calls +$34.60M vs. puts -$10.95M by 10:00am EST. Notable sweeps in 330C expiring 15Nov25 and heavy open interest at 325–330 point to institutional conviction. Mag7 call premium exceeded $110M, with a P/C volume ratio of 0.41 confirming bullish sentiment.

🎯 Trading plan

Monitor for a 4H close above 335 on >30M volume. Targets: 337.60, 343.75, 353 stretch. Downside: watch 319 pivot; invalidate below 310. Use trailing stops above 337.60 and scale profits at resistance. If momentum stalls, watch 330–335 consolidation for re-entry.

I’m sitting on an $887.02 unrealised gain from my $TSLA long, entered at $320.88 and now trading at $329.80. A textbook example of why precise entries and conviction pay off, letting the trade breathe while momentum works in my favour.

🏁 Outlook

Tesla is aligned across catalyst, flow, and structure for a continuation move. Above 335, probabilities favour 343.75, with gamma dynamics allowing an overshoot to 353. Risks: European demand softness, competitive entries, and legal overhang, are present but outweighed near term by institutional flows and defined technical triggers. These are probability-weighted frameworks.

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