To The Moon

$TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ 🔥🚀💉 TransMedics CEO Drops $2M on Shares as European Expansion Accelerates 💉🚀🔥

I’m extremely confident that Waleed Hassanein’s $2M insider buy at $119 marks the ignition point for TransMedics’ next sustained leg higher. That kind of insider conviction during an early-stage European expansion, coupled with FDA trial approvals for OCS 2.0, is the kind of setup that fuels institutional chase. I’m bullish because the company isn’t just defending margins at 22%, it’s expanding them while delivering 163% EPS growth year over year and raising guidance for the second time in 2025. This is the kind of alignment between insider conviction, accelerating fundamentals, and strategic market capture that doesn’t stay mispriced for long.

Chart Breakdown

Post-earnings, $TMDX surged 10% on 31Jul25, reclaiming the 50-day MA inside a cup base. The buy point is at 145.50, a high-volume breakout zone with a clear path to the 175 analyst high. Post-market on 08Aug25, the stock closed at $122.00 (+7.55%), reclaiming the EMA13 ($118.40), EMA21 ($116.72), and EMA55 ($119.93). The 4H Keltner and Bollinger bands are tightening after a volatility expansion, setting up for another push. Support is firm at $115.00, $110.00, and $105.00, while resistance is layered at $125.00, $130.00, and $145.50. Sep 19 call deltas are strongest at 105C (0.722) and 110C (0.632), reflecting bullish directional flow.

Earnings Snapshot

Q2 EPS came in at $0.92 (+163% YoY) on revenue of $157.4M (+38%). FY25 EPS consensus is $2.34 (+131% YoY), with FY26 at $2.73 (+17%). Management raised full-year sales guidance from $575M to $595M after already lifting it once earlier this year. Net margins remain at 22%, showing operating leverage even as expansion spend accelerates.

Segment Revenues

The Organ Care System (OCS) continues to lead, with FDA investigational device exemption for OCS in a new clinical trial for heart transplants. This two-phase trial, expected to exceed 650 patients, will test extended perfusion times and transplants from donors after brain death. Kidney market entry remains a major upcoming catalyst with a multi-billion-dollar TAM. European rollout is still in its infancy but represents a high-growth, high-margin geography.

Flow & Institutional Moves

Options interest is concentrated at 115C (322 contracts) and 125C (36 contracts). Sep 19 IV is at 54.51% with a ±21.17 move priced in. Mutual funds own 83% of shares, including Columbia Small Cap Growth Fund (CMSCX). The Accumulation/Distribution rating is A-, confirming institutional demand. Short interest is 667.6K shares (24.57% of float), primed for a liquidity flush if momentum breaks higher.

Valuation Check

At $114.50 pre-close, the stock trades at a forward multiple that understates its growth trajectory. Applying the Rule of 40 (Revenue growth + EBITDA margin) puts $TMDX over 60, ranking it in the top quartile of medtech peers. With high ROIC and strong free cash flow generation, a valuation rerate toward peer multiples is justified.

Analyst PTs & Sentiment

Seven analysts have an average target of $151.00 (+31.88% upside), with lows at $123.00 and highs at $175.00. Analyst breakdown: 30% Strong Buy, 40% Buy, 30% Hold, no Sells. Historical forecast comparisons show targets have consistently lagged actual performance during expansion cycles. Social sentiment in early August has turned sharply bullish, driven by the insider buy and trial approvals.

My Trade Plan

I’m entering core shares at $120–$122 and adding above $125 on confirmation. My stop-loss is just below $115.00. First profit target is $145.50, with a secondary push toward $175.00. For leverage, I’m eyeing Sep 19 120C and 125C for balanced delta and manageable theta decay.

Bold Prediction or Challenge

The market is still underestimating the compounding effect of kidney market entry plus EU expansion. This isn’t divergence; it’s detachment. I’m betting this fades only if $TMDX delivers a credibility reset, which history suggests is unlikely given their beat-and-raise cadence. Prove me wrong: if OCS 2.0 trial data lands early and positive, $175 gets hit far sooner than consensus expects.

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