To The Moon

$ProShares Ultra QQQ(QLD)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ 📜 I’m Using the Dot-Com Playbook as My Compass

Yes, we’re in an AI bubble. That’s not up for debate. But shorting bubbles too early is one of the most expensive mistakes in market history. In 1998–2000, $NDX was already being called a bubble in every financial newsroom. Yet from that point, it still delivered a +130% parabolic melt-up before collapsing. That final blow-off stage lasted over a year and punished premature bears. The AI trade today is showing eerily similar characteristics: accelerating price, media mania, and retail inflows. If we follow the Dot-Com script, the biggest vertical move might still be ahead.

📉 I’m Tracking Breadth Deterioration Under the Surface

While $NDX pushes record highs, participation is narrowing. The percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks above their 100-day MA has been in a steady downtrend, diverging from price. This setup was also present in early 2000, when mega-cap tech carried the index while the broader market quietly rolled over. These divergences often precede significant pullbacks, but until price confirms, leadership concentration can still propel the index higher.

📊 I’m Letting $QLD Work; But I Know My Triggers

The short-term $QLD trade remains in play while price holds above both the gap and the 5DMA. We’re in what should be the seasonal basing window, likely forming a Significant Higher Low; possibly just a backfill to the February ATH zone. On the tactical side, if $NDX slips into the neutral zone, I’ll trim. If we close under 23,050, I’ll pull half my $QLD off immediately.

⚠ I’m Respecting Gamma Dynamics and Macro Risks

Right now, 23,050 is a pivotal gamma inflection. Staying above it flips positioning toward positive gamma, which tends to suppress volatility and allow for more controlled upside. Drop back below it, and negative gamma flows can amplify intraday swings into sharp selloffs. Add in geopolitical risks, Fed policy uncertainty, and global tech regulation headlines, and you’ve got the perfect environment for violent whipsaws. The GEX profile confirms this: heavy call walls just above spot, solid put support well below. This creates a range where sharp reversals are likely until one side breaks.

📆 I’m Anchoring to the Bigger Trend Structure

Weekly $NDX, $QQQ, and $QLD charts remain well above their long-term EMAs and are riding upper Bollinger and Keltner channels. This is sustained momentum, not a fragile top yet. Even with breadth divergence, the trend structure is bullish across multiple timeframes. On the 4H charts, $QLD is grinding within its upper volatility bands, with each dip into the EMA cluster finding buyers. This tells me trend traders are still in control, even if conditions are stretched.

📌 I’m Balancing Aggression with Exit Discipline

Until the short-term trend breaks, I’m riding the wave. My plan: lean long above the 5DMA and 23,050, trim into the neutral zone, cut hard under negative gamma pressure, and watch breadth for early signs of exhaustion. This isn’t the time to ignore risk, but it’s also not the time to assume the top is already in. History shows bubbles can double before they die. The Dot-Com chart is my reminder: the loudest “it’s a bubble” calls often come right before the biggest move up.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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