To The Moon

Second Time Is A Charm?

Is $Oracle(ORCL)$ the comeback stock on US stock exchange ?

Analysts from the following financial institutions seemed to think so:

• Guggenheim Securities’s John DiFucci said he was “blown away”.

• TD Cowen’s Derrick Wood called it a “momentous quarter”.

• Deutsche Bank’s Brad Zelnick said, “We’re all kind of in shock, in a very good way”.

That’s how the analysts opened their comments and questions during Oracle’s quarterly earnings call on Tue, 9 Sep 2025.

This as ORCL’s stock price was in the midst of a +28% after-hours rally.

The software vendor had just reported an earnings and revenue miss, but nobody was paying attention to that. Strange ?

Wall Street was singularly focused on:

• ORCL’s forward-looking numbers.

• ORCL’s massive growth trajectory that the company now sees, thanks to its booming cloud infrastructure business and a host of new artificial intelligence deals.

Deutsche Bank’s Zelnick best summed it up as — “there’s no better evidence of a seismic shift happening in computing than these results that ORCL has put up”.

The Exceptions.

Analysts are often effusive in their praise of companies on their earnings calls after results beat expectations or a forecast is particularly impressive.

Executives are used to being congratulated on an excellent quarter.

ORCL’s latest call was different, and investors knew why.

Based on its post-market move, ORCL’s stock is poised to surge more on Wed, 10 Sep 2025 than it has in any single session since the dot-com boom in 1999.

ORCL trading at $310 in extended trading, are set to zoom past their record close of $256.43, that they hit in August 2025.

If it does, ORCL’s market cap would jump past $870 billion.

Did it happen ?

Wed, 10 Sep 2025.

As of Wed, 10 Sep 2025 8pm.

• What do you know, ORCL soared +35.95% on Wednesday trading.

• By the time 4pm came around, it closed the day up +$86.82.

• Market cap came to a whooping $922.22 billion, edging very closed to the $1.0 trillion mark.

• And exceeded the $870 million projection by miles.

Where excitement comes from?

The excitement is mostly around cloud infrastructure, where ORCL competes with $Amazon.com(AMZN)$, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Alphabet(GOOG)$.

ORCL said that revenue this fiscal year in that business will jump +77% to $18 billion from last year’s $10 billion; that will be a +80% YoY growth.

In fiscal 2027, the figure will almost double to $32 billion, before reaching $73 billion, $114 billion and $144 billion in the subsequent three years.

Earnings Call Titbits ?

ORCL’s CEO Safra Catz has confirmed in the earnings statement that the company has signed 4 multibillion-dollar contracts with 3 different customers in the quarter.

Additionally, OpenAI also confirmed during the quarter that it agreed to to develop 4.5 gigawatts of US data center capacity with ORCL.

ORCL’s remaining performance obligations, a measure of contracted revenue that has not yet been recognized, soared to $455 billion, up +359% from a year earlier.

Wood from TD Cowen’s Wood described ORCL’s Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) figure as “amazing” and asked Catz about the costs of building the infrastructure to support customers.

Catz explained that ORCL differs from some competitors in how it handles data center property.

While others prefer owning buildings, ORCL focuses instead on its technology, networking, storage, and the way its systems are put together.

Many analysts were impressed with the guidance that they raised their estimates on ORCL.

$Bank of America(BAC)$ upgraded ORCL to “Buy” after the call and called for more than 50% upside from Tuesday’s close.

A Tale Of Caution.

In an interview with CNBC’s “Fast Money” , D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria remarked that:

• ORCL’s projected cloud revenue was “absolutely staggering”.

• Noting it could grow tenfold over the next 5 years.

• Though, he did caution that much of this growth is due to major cloud providers like MSFT and GOOG shifting excess capacity to other data center operators, that in turn drives business to ORCL.

• ORCL’s projections are not Oracle’s own organic customers, but rather clients of hyperscalers — MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN using ORCL’s capacity.

• He rates the stock a “Hold” for now.

My Viewpoints: (mine only)

I could never really understand how company’s come up with projections based on ‘nothing’.

Yet, Wall Street seems to thrive on projections that sometimes might just seems to be on the wild side. Case in point, ORCL’s.

It is good that D.A. Davidson’s Luria was able to provide some sort of perspectives to ORCL’s out of this world’s project because that’s what they really are, just projections.

The biggest “What-if” is “when hyperscalers decide to ramp up their data centres capacities and re-absorb its farmed out clients”, what is going to happen to ORCL ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

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• C3.ai poor earnings is a win for PLTR ? Mon, 15 September. Idea post.

• What's next after Jobs, Inflation & Q2 earnings? Mon, 15 September. Idea post.

• Will NVDA's bet on HON's quantum Pay Off ? Fri, 12 September. Pick post.

• Do you think ORCL is truly NYSE’s IT come back stock ?

• Do you think hyperscalers will ramp up their data centres’ capacities when growing demand slows down, reclaiming their clients ?

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