To The Moon

$Tractor Supply(TSCO)$ $Deere(DE)$ $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ 🐮🌧️🚜 Tractor Supply Gets Citi Bull Note: Seasonal Tailwinds in Play 🚜🌧️🐮

I’m stepping in with conviction here. The market has severely discounted Tractor Supply’s operational resilience, mispricing short-term weather headwinds as structural weakness. This kind of capitulation, paired with a well-timed institutional upgrade, is exactly where asymmetric opportunities are born. Citi’s decisive move to raise its rating to Buy with a $62 target isn’t just sentiment fluff; it reflects improving seasonal dynamics, strategic execution on delivery and pet pharmacy initiatives, and a setup that’s technically coiled for mean reversion. This is where deep fundamental insight meets timing precision.

📊 Technicals

On the 4H chart, $TSCO has been in a controlled downtrend since early September, sliding from ~$63 to the $54 range. Price has hugged the lower Keltner and Bollinger bands, but momentum signals are showing early signs of base formation. Candles are attempting to reclaim the 13EMA, with the 21EMA and 55EMA stacked overhead as layered resistance. A decisive break through the mid-Keltner (pink band) would mark the first meaningful upside structure shift in weeks.

The 30m chart reinforces this inflection narrative. Price remains capped below the EMA cluster, but repeated defenses near $53.50 highlight buyer emergence. Intraday resistance at $55.30 remains pivotal. A push through this zone with volume could ignite short-term momentum.

🧾 Fundamentals & Analyst Upgrade

Citi upgraded Tractor Supply to Buy from Hold, lifting its target to $62. The key drivers:

• Cooler, wetter October expected to re-accelerate foot traffic and same-store sales for core farm and ranch customers.

• Last-mile delivery and pet pharmacy service are positioned to structurally lift comparable-sales growth.

• The stock fell 7.9% in September and another 5.2% in early October, creating a mispricing window ahead of earnings.

Earnings are due 23Oct25, with EPS est. $0.48 on $3.72B revenue (+7.2% y/y). Seasonal normalization and execution tailwinds give this rebound thesis teeth.

📈 Key Levels Map

🔵 Support: $53.50, $52.80

🟠 Resistance: $55.30 (short-term trigger), $57.00 (mid-Keltner), $62.00 (Citi PT)

⚡ Watch for a sustained reclaim of $55.30 on both 30m and 4H timeframes as the ignition point.

🧠 Strategic Lens

The Street’s September selloff priced in a warm autumn as if it were a structural demand collapse. But Tractor Supply isn’t a high-beta tech play. It’s a seasonal traffic business that thrives when the weather shifts, and Citi’s note captures that pivot. Layer in operational initiatives that target delivery convenience and new customer verticals, and you have a classic contrarian rebound play as the market’s attention is elsewhere.

👉❓ Will weather normalization and new services drive the rebound before earnings, or will it take a post-print catalyst to power through $57?

🚀 Conclusion

This isn’t a low-conviction bounce call. This is a timed, structurally supported, fundamentally justified inflection setup with clear catalysts and defined levels. The market has over-discounted temporary softness, and institutional capital is starting to lean in. If $TSCO clears $55.30 with volume, this could be the start of a high-momentum re-rating cycle into earnings. The setup is tight, the risk is defined, and the narrative is compelling. This is exactly the kind of trade that algorithmic noise misses and seasoned operators seize.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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