To The Moon

$Energy Fuels(UUUU)$ $LYNAS RARE EARTHS LTD(LYC.AU)$ $NuScale Power(SMR)$ I’ve spent years dissecting commodity cycles, from uranium squeezes to lithium booms, and nothing rivals the rare earths saga for its fusion of geopolitics and industrial necessity. I’m watching Trump’s latest claim: an $8.5 billion “pipeline ready to go” with Australia, and I’m not buying the hype of overnight mineral independence. Mining’s the easy part; refining’s the fortress, and China built it. I’m tracking this not for the politics, but for the asymmetric setups it creates in the volatility.

🇺🇸 Geopolitics: Alliances Over Ambition

The Trump-Albanese pact announced in October was pitched as an industrial revolution for critical minerals. The deal includes joint stockpiles, production-sharing, and U.S. investment in Australia’s $1.2 billion critical-minerals reserve by 2026. It sounds bold, but I’ve crunched the numbers; it’s progress dressed as transformation. Australia mines 18 percent of the world’s rare earths yet exports roughly 80 percent of them to China for processing. Lynas Rare Earths, the nation’s largest player, still relies on Malaysian facilities that depend on Chinese intermediates.

Beijing controls about 70 percent of known reserves and 90 percent of global refining, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Its new export-licence rules, covering any product with more than 0.1 percent rare-earth content effective 1 December 2025, tighten that grip even further. Foreign military-linked companies will receive automatic denials. This follows the 2023 bans on gallium and germanium exports. History rhymes: when tariffs last escalated in 2010, China flooded supply and crashed prices 80 percent. I’m factoring that playbook in.

🧪 Refining’s the Moat, Not the Mine

Commodities trade on bottlenecks, and rare earths’ bottleneck is refining; capital-intensive, toxic, and decades ahead in China. Even if new mines open tomorrow, we’re still queuing for Chinese plants. Dysprosium oxide, vital for EV magnets, costs about US $800 per kg in the U.S. versus $230 in China, a 248 percent premium. Energy Fuels ($UUUU) recently achieved 99.9 percent pure dysprosium output at its White Mesa Mill but is producing just 2 kg per week. Scaling to commercial levels takes years.

Global demand is sprinting while capacity crawls. The IEA’s 2025 Critical Minerals Outlook projects a 50–60 percent demand surge by 2040, with rare-earth shortfalls exceeding 20 percent under current policy paths. I’m blending exposure through uranium as well; nuclear’s revival reinforces the theme. The World Nuclear Association expects global uranium demand to reach 180,000 tonnes by 2030 while supply lags 20 percent. Energy Fuels’ dual rare-earth and uranium model is an under-appreciated hedge against both macro shocks and policy bluster.

⚙️ Trade-War Theatre Meets Market Reality

Trump’s rhetoric sells independence, yet Australia still imports refined rare-earth materials from China for its own defence and technology sectors. If Canberra can’t secure domestic supply, there’s no surplus for Washington. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (Oct 2025) warns that new trade barriers could shave 1–2 percent from global GDP; energy-transition inflation is already sticky. For traders, this means volatility, not victory. I’m watching for U.S. DoD funding rounds; $400 million has already been channelled to MP Materials ($MP) and $540 million sector-wide for mid-stream development.

📈 Market Setups: $UUUU | $MP | $REMX

Markets move long before politicians do. The VanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF ($REMX) hit a 52-week high of $80.25 on 13 October before retracing to $73.68 on profit-taking. I’m eyeing that dip: top holdings MP (25 percent weight) and Lynas (10 percent) capture the macro theme without single-name volatility.

Energy Fuels ($UUUU) trades near $21.91, coiling in a falling-wedge pattern; a textbook reversal setup. Resistance sits at $23.50; a breakout targets $27.40 to $28.00 based on Fibonacci extensions from the $11.82 lows. RSI 45 and rising, MACD turning positive, and Bollinger compression hint at a volatility pop. Options flow on 15 October showed $14 million in calls, institutions positioning ahead of headlines.

$MP Materials remains the institutional proxy for U.S.-based supply. Price near $80 tests its 50-day SMA around $78; short interest 7 percent creates squeeze potential if policy momentum builds. 13F filings reveal BlackRock up 5 percent to a $1.2 billion stake and Vanguard adding two million UUUU shares in Q2.

🧠 My Positioning & Outlook

I’m long UUUU November $22 calls with tight risk below $21.50. Scaling in on weakness, I allocate 40 percent UUUU, 30 percent MP, 20 percent REMX, and 10 percent cash. Targets: UUUU $28 (Q1 2026), MP $95, REMX $85. Near-term catalysts: UUUU earnings 31 Oct (EPS -$0.08 exp.), MP 6 Nov (EPS -$0.13 exp.), China’s export curbs effective 1 Dec. I’m not buying political promises; I’m buying confirmation breakouts.

I’ve traded enough cycles to know this isn’t a sprint to “boom” but a marathon where execution beats headlines. The Trump-Albanese pact buys time, not independence. My eyes are on the companies building, not boasting.

👉❓Do you believe the U.S. can truly break China’s rare-earth dominance this decade, or is this another “energy-independence illusion” designed to comfort the crowd while traders quietly position for the marathon?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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