To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 

Executive Summary

I closed the month watching one of the sharpest reversals I have seen in decades. The S&P 500 erased a −4.7% drawdown from 21 November and finished +0.1%, a 5.1% red to green swing that added roughly USD 2.75T in market cap in eight sessions. Breadth thrust, surging new highs, collapsing new lows, and a VIX at 16.35 confirmed a decisive shift back to buyers.

Silver surged after a CME Globex 11 hour outage, breaking from 55.67 to 56.86 and lifting its year to date performance from +90% to +97%, its strongest annual gain since the early 1980s. Gold held near 2650. Top global momentum themes stayed unchanged with Gold at 87, Defence 69, Nuclear 66, and Rare Earths 64.

Fed expectations firmed with 68% odds of a December cut and 87% odds of a February 2026 cut. QT ends 01 December and the Treasury will rebuild the TGA by USD 150B in Q1. Hedge funds lifted exposure, CTAs flipped fully long, and ETF flows remained constructive. Seasonality now moves into one of the strongest windows of the year with December historically returning +1.2% with a 70% probability of finishing positive.

📈 Market Pulse

I watched the S&P 500 close at 6849.09, up 0.54%, locking in a 7 month winning streak. The Dow $DJI rose 0.61% to 47716.42 and the Nasdaq $IXIC gained 0.65% to 23365.69 although it still finished November −1.51%. The Russell gained 0.58% as small caps joined the rotation.

Breadth was powerful and broad. NYSE: 2774 advancers, 1238 decliners, up volume 527M versus 194.95M down. Nasdaq: 7450 advancers, 3257 decliners, up volume 6545M versus 2439M down. New highs hit 237 on NYSE and 690 on Nasdaq. New lows collapsed to 27 and 76. These are classic early cycle expansion signatures.

The VIX closed at 16.35, down 5%, sitting at a 30 day low. Put demand dropped 22% week over week. The curve held clean contango and dealer long gamma between SPX 6800 and 6840 kept the tape locked into a controlled upward drift.

Silver’s surge from 55.67 to 56.86 pushed its YTD performance from +90% to +97%, its strongest year since 1980. Gold held firm at 2650 and commodities moved in a coordinated fashion.

$TSLA closed 430.17, up 0.84%, holding a tight 426.20 to 432.93 range. $RKLB closed 42.16, up 0.54%, recovering cleanly from an early 41.80 dip. $SOFI closed 29.72, up 4.32%, extending its breakout.

🏦 Fed Watch

The market priced 68% odds of a December cut and 87% odds of a February 2026 cut. The 2s10s steepened 22bps month to date and now sits near +22bps. Real yields anchored around 1.85%. Financial conditions eased another 0.2 standard deviations.

QT officially ends on 01 December. The TGA rebuild of USD 150B in Q1 injects early 2026 liquidity. CTAs turned fully long equities for the first time since July as volatility collapsed.

📰 Corporate Movers and Key Drivers

$GOOGL advanced on AI advertising resilience while Meta’s multi billion dollar TPU shift pressured $NVDA which still finished November down 13%.

$BABA posted +34% cloud growth on public AI model demand although profits halved due to delivery subsidies. $JD showed a −55% profit collapse. Meituan printed its first loss in three years. Margins across China’s consumer internet space remain compressed.

$BBY gained 5.3% on a stronger PC upgrade cycle and a 50bps gross margin improvement. $KSS jumped 43%, $ANF rose 38%, and $URBN climbed 14%, confirming discretionary leadership.

$DE fell 5.7% with FY net income guidance at 4B to 4.75B versus expectations of 5.11B. The company faces more than USD 500M in tariff headwinds.

$CPB slipped 0.6% as it addressed reputational fallout from leaked executive comments.

November’s top S&P 500 performers: $ALB +29.6%, $LLY +26.5%, $SOLV +24.1%, $MRK +22.4%, $EXPD +21%.

November laggards: $SMCI −36%, $AXON −27%, $ORCL −24%, $DASH −23%, $TTD −22%.

🧭 Five Stocks I Want to Own into 2026

$TSLA. I expect Tesla to enter 2026 in the strongest operational shape of its history with robotaxi rollout, Semi scaling, Cybercab deployment, and software driven margin expansion. The compensation clarity removes overhangs.

$RKLB. Rocket Lab sits at the centre of orbital infrastructure. Demand for launch and satellite services forms a multi decade runway.

$SOFI. Digital finance continues to gain global market share. With crypto trading, level one options, stablecoin expansion, and international licensing, SoFi holds significant upside optionality into 2026.

$GOOGL. Search, YouTube, AI infrastructure, and Waymo position Alphabet for sustained cash generation over the long term.

$AMZN. AWS and robotics automation add scale advantages. I want to own Amazon as the robotics race accelerates.

🔍 Options Flow Radar

I tracked flow across the complex and the message was decisive. The S&P 500 sat in a clean positive gamma regime with dealer exposure concentrated around 6840 which kept price action pinned. The 0DTE volume map showed heavy call stacking near 6840 and put support at 6780. The HVL at 6785 acted as the session’s centre of gravity.

Platinum January 2026 OPEX positioning clustered in a single expiry with call dominance across GEX, DEX, OI, and volume, all sitting near 100% normalised readings. The range held at 1580 support and 1600 resistance which is outright bullish into the expiry window.

I saw a USD 10M call spike into the close across the Mag 7 which signalled re risk behaviour rather than hedge rolling. Call premium built steadily into the afternoon.

$GOOG showed the opposite pattern. More than USD 1.1M in single leg calls were sold while price dropped more than seven dollars from the open. Net drift stayed negative throughout the morning and early afternoon.

Mag 7 net drift printed USD 28.75M in call premium versus USD 13.19M in puts which confirmed broad upside priors. $SPY IV rank dropped to 10.5%, the lowest in over a month. Low IV combined with long gamma generally results in a controlled grind higher.

$TSLA’s q score remained elevated while spot held near 248 which sat slightly below HVL. Gamma hedging suggested small adjustments but no directional pressure from dealers.

Flow aligned with bullish seasonality. Gamma was supportive, premium skewed upward, IV was compressed, put volume collapsed, and liquidity rotated into risk leading sectors.

🌏 Global Macro Currents

DXY traded near 102.8, USDJPY around 150.2, and EURUSD roughly 1.085. Global PMIs strengthened with the J.P. Morgan Composite at 52.9 and China Manufacturing PMI at 50.6. Tariff pause discussions between the United States and China offered short term support.

Precious metals, defence, nuclear, and rare earths remain the top four momentum themes. Bitcoin held near 91k with crypto beta reattaching to equities.

My near term macro calendar includes State Job Openings and Labour Turnover, Import and Export Price Indexes, and the Q3 Weekly Earnings Report.

📉 Risk Positioning Insight

Hedge fund gross exposure reached 2025 highs and net exposure climbed 12% in the final week of November. Dark pool accumulation rose 15% in mega caps. ETF flows added more than USD 20B. Positioning is firm without being crowded and dispersion remains high.

😌 VIX Orderly Fear

The VIX at 16.35 signalled calm. The curve sat in contango. Crash protection demand fell. Mid price executions stayed balanced. It is an orderly fear regime that allows risk to build.

Seasonality and Month End Dynamics

I always treat seasonality as a structural guide rather than a signal, but the long term data still shapes how I frame risk into month end. The S&P500 table covering 1964 to 2024 shows the pattern clearly. November has delivered an average return of 1.6% with a 69% positive hit rate and a best month move of 11%. December sits even stronger with a 1.2% average return and a 70% positive rate. Both months carry moderate volatility with standard deviations under 4.5%.

That structure supports the current regime I have been tracking in my post. The market leans into year end strength, and the higher positive distribution in November and December aligns with the flows I am already monitoring. The worst drawdowns in those months remain contained compared with September, which is the weakest month in the entire dataset with an average return of minus 0.7% and only 46% positive outcomes.

I am keeping that context anchored to the levels and flow signals I already highlighted earlier. Seasonality does not override positioning, but it gives me a cleaner probability map for how momentum behaves around month end and into the early part of the new month.

🎯 Final Institutional Take

December’s Santa Rally Setup Is One of the Strongest in Decades

I enter December with conviction. Across sixty years of data, December has produced an average +1.2% return with a 70% probability of finishing higher. The best December gained +11%, the worst fell −9%, and the standard deviation is a contained 3.5%.

I now have a historic month end reversal, a classic breadth thrust, a 30 day low VIX, long gamma support, improving PMIs, easing financial conditions, QT ending, and USD 150B in liquidity scheduled for Q1. It is one of the strongest Santa Rally foundations I have seen in years.

My base case remains upside toward SPX 7000 to 7100 with 6900 as the near term friction point. The path of least resistance remains higher into year end.

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