To The Moon

$AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$  $T-Mobile US(TMUS)$  

🧠 Good News, Red Tape, Contrarian Fuel

Good news, but $ASTS is selling off today 🫤

I’m still looking at a stock up roughly +299% YTD, with analysts mostly on holds, average PT near $73 below spot, short interest heavy at ~16% of float, and options volume surging ~6× normal pacing on a half-day session, with calls leading.

That setup matters. That’s contrarian fuel.

🛰️ Execution Is No Longer the Question

BlueBird 6 marked the shift from thesis to proof. A ~2,400 sq ft commercial satellite behaving like a cell tower in orbit is what allows a normal phone to talk to space without new hardware. AST chose the harder engineering path, and this launch confirmed it works.

📊 Structure Is Resetting, Not Breaking

On the 4H and 30m charts, price remains inside a rising Keltner 240 regime.

The pullback followed a tag of the upper Keltner and Bollinger bands near the $92 volatility pocket. What followed is a mean reversion toward the $85 pocket, not distribution. EMA 55 continues to slope higher. The $78 volatility pocket remains the key demand shelf. As long as that holds, the primary trend is intact.

⛽ Liquidity, Gamma, and Positioning

This move occurred in thin, half-day holiday liquidity. Gamma exaggerates moves under these conditions. After a +299% YTD run, profit-taking is normal. I read this as positioning being cleaned up, not conviction being abandoned.

📈 Options and Shorts Tell the Story

Call-led options flow remains dominant, including a $714K Jan 2026 $100 call buyer paying for time, not chasing spot. Short interest near 16% of float remains unresolved. That combination keeps pressure quietly building on pullbacks.

📉 Institutional Attention Is Catching Up

Bloomberg Intelligence has now initiated coverage on AST SpaceMobile. That matters, because institutional research frameworks typically arrive after execution risk is reduced, not before it. Consensus is still cautious, but execution has moved first.

🛰️ Zooming Out

BlueBird-7 launches in January. Early service activation follows in 2026, with a roadmap toward 45–60 satellites. At scale, this stops behaving like a speculative space story and starts behaving like telecom infrastructure coming online.

🧠 Bottom Line

Today’s red tape is liquidity and gamma noise. The signal is execution, structure holding above $78, call-led flow, persistent short interest, and a clearer path into 2026.

That’s how I’m reading $ASTS.

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