π’οΈππ₯ The Worldβs Largest Oil Prize Unlocks: Venezuela, U.S. Energy Power And A 2026 Regime Shift π₯ππ’οΈ
$Chevron(CVX)$ $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ $ConocoPhillips(COP)$
03Jan26 πΊπΈ | 04Jan26 π³πΏ
π― Executive Summary
Iβm extremely confident this marks one of the most consequential geopolitical and energy inflection points of the decade. The removal of NicolΓ‘s Maduro is not merely a regime change. It is the reopening of the largest proven oil reserve on Earth, approximately 303 billion barrels, now aligning with U.S. capital, U.S. engineering, and U.S. operational execution.
President Trumpβs words were explicit and must be taken literally:
βWe are going to have our very large oil companies go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.β
Source: White House
Iβm focused squarely on Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and ConocoPhillips (COP), with second-order torque flowing through Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL), selective refining exposure via Valero Energy (VLO), and volatility capture through Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).
Iβm also explicitly seeing 4H accumulation across the energy majors, which historically precedes daily continuation rather than exhaustion. This is reserve control at scale, not a short-term oil price trade.
π° Financial Performance And Structural Reality
The asymmetry across the charts is staggering, and one of the visuals makes this unmistakable by directly comparing proven crude oil reserves measured in billions of barrels against crude oil exports measured in billions of USD.
β’ Venezuela π»πͺ
Proven reserves: 303.22B barrels
2023 crude exports: $4.05B
β’ United States πΊπΈ
Proven reserves: 55.2B barrels
2023 crude exports: $125B
This is not a geology issue. It is a governance collapse.
The long-term production chart spanning 1920 through 2025 shows Venezuela rising to sustained output near 3β4M barrels per day, followed by a sharp structural collapse beginning in the early 2000s as ChΓ‘vez-era policies took hold and accelerated under Maduro. That capability fell apart alongside the decay of PDVSA, the state oil company. Capital fled. Engineers exited. Infrastructure deteriorated. Contracts were voided. Billions in U.S. oil assets were expropriated.
The reserves never disappeared. The execution did.
π οΈ Strategic Failure Point: PDVSA And Why U.S. Majors Matter
I want to be precise. Venezuelan oil collapsed because PDVSA collapsed.
β’ Drilling rigs idled
β’ Pipelines corroded
β’ Refineries deteriorated
β’ Skilled engineers exited the country
β’ Capital expenditure effectively went to zero
Heavy crude extraction requires specialised expertise and downstream integration. This is exactly where CVX, XOM, and COP dominate. These firms are not opportunistic entrants. They are infrastructure rebuilders with decades of experience in sour and heavy crude, integrated directly into U.S. Gulf Coast refining systems.
President Trump explicitly stated that U.S. oil companies would be reimbursed for billions spent rebuilding Venezuelan infrastructure, with repayment sourced directly from oil sales. That single statement reframes this transition as capital recovery and asset control, not foreign aid.
Unresolved arbitration claims from past expropriations add further upside. Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips each hold multi-billion-dollar unpaid claims, now representing either compensation or reinstated assets.
π§ Analyst, Institutional, And Capital Flow Context
Chevron already maintains joint ventures and is best positioned for immediate scaling. Exxon Mobil brings unmatched global scale, heavy-crude optimisation, and downstream leverage. ConocoPhillips stands to benefit from legal resolution layered on top of operational re-entry.
ETF exposure via XLE captures volatility, but true alpha remains concentrated in direct operators and service providers. SLB and HAL stand to benefit from an estimated $120B+ infrastructure rebuild, spanning drilling, maintenance, and technology upgrades required to restore output toward 3M+ bpd.
ππ Technical Setup (4H Charts): Accumulation Confirmed Across Majors
Iβm analysing 4-hour (4H) charts, which are optimal for identifying institutional positioning, swing continuation, and regime persistence without lower-timeframe noise. Across CVX, XOM, and COP, the 4H structure confirms accumulation, not exhaustion.
Chevron (CVX) | 4H Chart
Price: $155.80
RSI (4H): rising, no bearish divergence
MACD (4H): positive and expanding
Structure: higher highs and higher lows
Keltner and Bollinger bands: expanding upward with price riding the upper envelope
EMA alignment: price firmly above 13, 21, and 55 EMA
Support: $150β152
Resistance: $156β157, now under sustained pressure
This is textbook 4H trend continuation, not late-cycle extension.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) | 4H Chart
Price: $122.64
RSI (4H): constructive mid-range hold
MACD (4H): bullish crossover sustained
EMA structure: price above 13, 21, and 55 EMA
Volatility bands: widening with controlled expansion
Support: $119β120
Upside extension: $124β125+
ConocoPhillips (COP) | 4H Chart
Price: $96.63
RSI (4H): rebounding from mid-range
MACD (4H): upward inflection
Pattern: base breakout following consolidation
EMA behaviour: price reclaiming short-term averages with positive slope
Support: $92β93
Resistance: $97β100, now active
π Macro And Global Power Reordering
One of the most powerful visuals shows that just four countries control more than half of the planetβs proven oil reserves, with Venezuela occupying the single largest share in that global concentration map. Another reserve-by-country chart reinforces this dominance by placing Venezuela clearly above Saudi Arabia and Canada, visually underscoring the scale of its latent leverage.
Oil begins 2026 soft, with Brent near $60, pressured by non-OPEC supply growth and slowing demand. Yet geopolitics now overrides pure supply math. U.S. access to Venezuelan reserves weakens Russian and Saudi leverage while materially reducing Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere.
This is oil as diplomacy, collateral, and strategic power.
π Valuation And Capital Health
CVX, XOM, and COP trade at reasonable forward multiples relative to free cash flow durability, dividend coverage, and reserve longevity. Venezuelan access extends reserve life without offshore exploration risk, materially improving long-term capital efficiency.
This is not about next quarterβs EPS. This is about multi-decade reserve control at scale.
βοΈ Verdict & Trade Plan
I remain firmly bullish on CVX, XOM, and COP, with selective exposure to SLB, HAL, VLO, and volatility capture via XLE.
β’ Accumulate on pullbacks toward rising EMAs
β’ Stops below structural support zones
β’ Base targets: continuation toward prior highs
β’ Stretch targets: price discovery if oil volatility returns
β’ Confirmation: volume expansion, sustained upper-band riding, positive MACD slope
π Conclusion
Iβm convinced this is not merely a setup. It is a structural rerating in motion. Control of reserves matters more than short-term oil prices, and the market is only beginning to reprice that reality. Infrastructure beats ideology. Execution beats headlines. The charts confirm it. Thatβs why Iβm here.
π Key Takeaways
β’ Venezuela reserves: 303.22B barrels, largest globally
β’ Four countries control 50%+ of global proven oil reserves
β’ U.S. exports 2023: $125B vs Venezuela $4.05B
β’ CVX $155.80, bullish 4H band expansion confirmed
β’ XOM $122.64, 4H EMA stack intact
β’ COP $96.63, 4H base breakout active
β’ Estimated rebuild: $120B+ capex opportunity
π’ Donβt miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets ππ Iβm obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Letβs outsmart the market and stack those gains together! π
Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC πππππ
@Tiger_comments @TigerPicks @TigerWire @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerObserver
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
More than $273k in single-leg, out-of-the-money calls were bought on Friday as CVX surged over $3 or +2.2% intraday. That kind of positioning tends to show up when traders are leaning into asymmetry, not chasing headlines.
The macro context matters. Chevron remains the only U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela π»πͺ, giving it a unique first-mover advantage as this geopolitical regime shifts.
Options flow, price strength and macro alignment donβt often converge like this. When they do, itβs usually worth paying attention.
π’οΈ π π π π π ¨ ββ‘βββββ π π π π π ! π π π π π ‘π ’ π π ππππ’
More than $273k in single-leg, out-of-the-money calls were bought on Friday as CVX surged over $3 or +2.2% intraday. That kind of positioning tends to show up when traders are leaning into asymmetry, not chasing headlines.
The macro context matters. Chevron remains the only U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela π»πͺ, giving it a unique first-mover advantage as this geopolitical regime shifts.
Options flow, price strength and macro alignment donβt often converge like this. When they do, itβs usually worth paying attention.
π’οΈ π π π π π ¨ ββ‘βββββ π π π π π ! π π π π π ‘π ’ π π ππππ’
More than $273k in single-leg, out-of-the-money calls were bought on Friday as CVX surged over $3 or +2.2% intraday. That kind of positioning tends to show up when traders are leaning into asymmetry, not chasing headlines.
The macro context matters. Chevron remains the only U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela π»πͺ, giving it a unique first-mover advantage as this geopolitical regime shifts.
Options flow, price strength and macro alignment donβt often converge like this. When they do, itβs usually worth paying attention.
π’οΈ π π π π π ¨ ββ‘βββββ π π π π π ! π π π π π ‘π ’ π π ππππ’
More than $273k in single-leg, out-of-the-money calls were bought on Friday as CVX surged over $3 or +2.2% intraday. That kind of positioning tends to show up when traders are leaning into asymmetry, not chasing headlines.
The macro context matters. Chevron remains the only U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela π»πͺ, giving it a unique first-mover advantage as this geopolitical regime shifts.
Options flow, price strength and macro alignment donβt often converge like this. When they do, itβs usually worth paying attention.
π’οΈ π π π π π ¨ ββ‘βββββ π π π π π ! π π π π π ‘π ’ π π ππππ’
More than $273k in single-leg, out-of-the-money calls were bought on Friday as CVX surged over $3 or +2.2% intraday. That kind of positioning tends to show up when traders are leaning into asymmetry, not chasing headlines.
The macro context matters. Chevron remains the only U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela π»πͺ, giving it a unique first-mover advantage as this geopolitical regime shifts.
Options flow, price strength and macro alignment donβt often converge like this. When they do, itβs usually worth paying attention.
π’οΈ π π π π π ¨ ββ‘βββββ π π π π π ! π π π π π ‘π ’ π π ππππ’
More than $273k in single-leg, out-of-the-money calls were bought on Friday as CVX surged over $3 or +2.2% intraday. That kind of positioning tends to show up when traders are leaning into asymmetry, not chasing headlines.
The macro context matters. Chevron remains the only U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela π»πͺ, giving it a unique first-mover advantage as this geopolitical regime shifts.
Options flow, price strength and macro alignment donβt often converge like this. When they do, itβs usually worth paying attention.
π’οΈ π π π π π ¨ ββ‘βββββ π π π π π ! π π π π π ‘π ’ π π ππππ’
Would this news affect on tmr morning share price? [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]
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