To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟The stock market has just performed my favourite magic trick: making bad news disappear with a puff of green smoke!  Tesla $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  has just dropped its report card on deliveries and the grade was not exactly "Straight A".

Q4 Deliveries : 418,227 vehicles (missed estimates of 441k)

Full Year 2025: 1.64 million vehicles delivered (a decline from 1.79 million in 2024).

By any conventional measure, this is bad news.  Yet Tesla is up in premarket trading?

Welcome to the weird and wonderful world of market psychology where "bad news" can sometimes translates to "let the rally begin".

The Chart : A Test of Conviction 

The price action on the first day of trading of 2026 was volatile.  However the underlying trend has been upward since July 2025.  TSLA has surged over 50% from its July lows to almost USD 499 in December last year.

The current chart shows a recent pullback from those highs as the delivery concerns mounted, which likely priced in the bad news.  The current pop on the news release suggests that this might be a bottoming process as investors focus on the future of Tesla.

Can Tesla Rally Continue in 2026?

Yes absolutely.  The current premarket jump suggests strong underlying demand from investors.  

The rally will depend on a few key issues:

The Robotaxi Catalyst: The market is now heavily focused on Elon Musk's AI plays, particularly the long awaited Robotaxi event.

Marginal Improvement:  Investors just want to see any sign of marginal Improvement in Q1 26 earnings call, not perfection.

General Market Tailwind: The strong start to the year for the Nasdaq , is providing a massive lift to all high growth tech names, including Tesla.

Analyst Targets: A House Divided 

Wall Street is split down the middle.  The consensus average sits around USD 414 to USD 422 per share.  However bulls like Dan Ives at Wedbush are shouting for USD 600 based on the "AI and Autonomy" vision.  Meanwhile Tesla bears are still stuck in the basement with targets near USD 120.  The moral of the story? You are either betting on a car company or a robotics giant - take your pick!

What to expect in 2026 for Tesla? A choppy ride 

Will it be up or down?  The analysts are split but here are 2 scenarios:

Scenario 1 : Up - The Bull Case 

Tesla's shares go up if Elon Musk delivers a convincing Robotaxi event and scales the FSD network rapidly.  If the market believes that Tesla is an AI/Robotics company with an actual USD 600 target price, Tesla could easily hit new highs this year. The premarket pop suggests that institutions are buying the dip in anticipation of this catalyst.

Scenario 2: Down - The Bear Case 

Tesla shares may go down if competitors like $BYD COMPANY(01211)$  keep eroding margins, demand wanes further and the AI promises fail to materialise into meaningful revenue streams quickly enough.

If the narrative reverts to "Tesla is just a car company", that USD 120 bear target can become a real possibility.

Concluding Thoughts:   Trading Narratives, Not Deliveries 

I believe that in 2026, we are not investing because of Tesla's past delivery numbers.  We are trading in Wall Street's belief in Elon Musk's ability to conjure up a profitable robot from the factory floor.

Tesla is too volatile for my "set and forget it" portfolio.  I am choosing stability and diversification with $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPYM)$ which tracks  the best US companies in just 1 powerful trade.  SPYM also includes Tesla at #9 spot, just ahead of Berkshire Hathaway.  While its weighting has fluctuated due to recent delivery misses, Tesla remains a heavyweight in the S&P500 index.  For me, 2026 is about a smooth drive in SPYM without the drama of owning a single stock.

Bad news is good news for Tesla as in 2026, Tesla has officially transcended the "car company" label in the eyes of Tesla bulls.  By rallying on a delivery miss, Tesla has proven that investors are no longer trading based on how many cars were delivered .  Instead they are trading on the sovereign AI and robotics infrastructure that they expect Tesla to dominate by 2027.  The "bad" delivery data was the final piece of old luggage being tossed off the rocket ship to make room for Tesla's AI supercycle.

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