To The Moon

$The Kraft Heinz Company(KHC)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$  $Procter & Gamble(PG)$ 

21Jan26 ET 🇺🇸 | 22Jan26 NZT 🇳🇿

🧠 This is a structural unwind, not a headline reaction.

Focus is firmly on The Kraft Heinz Company ($KHC) after a regulatory filing revealed that Berkshire Hathaway may offer to sell 325M+ shares, effectively its 27.5–28% stake. That is not optionality. That is supply entering the market.

📜 A decade-long chapter is coming to a close.

This investment dates back to 2015 and stands out as a rare misfire tied to leverage, cost cutting, and a consumer staples environment that permanently shifted. A full Berkshire exit removes the psychological backstop that has quietly supported sentiment for years.

📉 Price action is already validating the risk.

The stock gapped roughly −7% at the open and has now printed its lowest level since the Covid crash. The 60DMA has acted as a hard ceiling for months, rejecting every rally attempt. At −23.5% YoY, this is persistent trend damage, not a failed bounce.

📊 Positioning is where vulnerability becomes reflexive.

Options data tells a clear story. Calls have completely overwhelmed puts, with a 50-day call-to-put ratio of 11.42, marking a 12-month extreme. Optimism has crowded into a deteriorating structure. When that unwinds, it tends to amplify downside rather than absorb it.

🌪️ Volatility remains complacent.

Despite the supply overhang and positioning imbalance, SVI sits near 26%, around the 25th percentile. Volatility is cheap relative to the risk being introduced. Cheap vol combined with crowded calls is rarely benign.

🏦 The broader signal sits at the Berkshire level.

This would represent one of the first major exits since Warren Buffett stepped aside as CEO, all while Berkshire holds roughly $381B in cash. The message here is balance-sheet discipline and legacy cleanup, not tactical rotation.

🔎 The framework is straightforward.

This is not being treated as a trade. It is being treated as a supply-driven reset. When a long-term anchor shareholder prepares to exit, technicals break, optimism crowds the options tape, and volatility stays cheap, markets do not resolve quietly. They reprice. That process rarely finishes in days. It finishes when ownership changes hands.

$BRK.B $KHC

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